Western Caribbean Thread

[Stratosphere747]

Bastardi is saying that this thing begins to develop off Belize, moves NE for a while, then NW back across the Yuc. He then expects it to pose a concern for the TX coast next week.

Um, not sure about this ... he said something "developed" may move into the WGOM but I don't recall reading or hearing him say that this system would pose a concern to the TX coast next week.

I remember some of the JoeBa subscribers talking about this last week. Sounds like this could be some fresh thoughts by him?

[Portastorm]

Bastardi is saying that this thing begins to develop off Belize, moves NE for a while, then NW back across the Yuc. He then expects it to pose a concern for the TX coast next week.

Um, not sure about this ... he said something "developed" may move into the WGOM but I don't recall reading or hearing him say that this system would pose a concern to the TX coast next week.

I remember some of the JoeBa subscribers talking about this last week. Sounds like this could be some fresh thoughts by him?

OK ... on his video today ... he suggested that there may be some disturbed weather in the WGOM next week that will be drawn up into Texas and Louisiana when a strong trough moves west to east across the country.

[Stratosphere747]

Thanks for clarifying Porta. Sounds like he is not specifically talking about this new low off Belize/Yucatan.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thanks for clarifying Porta. Sounds like he is not specifically talking about this new low off Belize/Yucatan.

Actually, he is. But not for certain it is a TC, but could be, but whatever it is feeds in moisture for a big severe outbreak.


Actually, JB needs a major hurricane to hit Florida for his pre-season forecast to work out. Erin and Humberto gave him the points he needed for Texas. But he is short overall (his logarithmic version of landfall intensity, with a TD=1 point and a Cat 5 =64 points) and he needs a lot of points for Florida.



If you look at GFS shear forecasts, nothing more than a wave can come close to Texas, no way a TC, even if it were heading this way, could survive, and one would assume any system of any strength at all would head Northeast, towards Florida.


Now, about this time next week, GFS forecasts very favorable shearfor extreme South Florida, but GFS shows no surface feature that could take advantage of it.

[Kludge]

Bastardi is saying that this thing begins to develop off Belize, moves NE for a while, then NW back across the Yuc. He then expects it to pose a concern for the TX coast next week.

Um, not sure about this ... he said something "developed" may move into the WGOM but I don't recall reading or hearing him say that this system would pose a concern to the TX coast next week.

The prediction was on this morning's Big Dog. Candidly, when JB predicts a storm for TX, I breathe a sigh of relief . I hope I'm not jinxing us by saying that climo indicates that storm season has ended for TX. It would take a perfect storm (no pun) of events to bring ex-94l this far NW, in my opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro kinda similar to GFS in bringing possible tropical depression to Florida's Redneck Riviera.




Edit to Add: Based on long range forecast models, I started a severe weather outbreak late next week thread this morning over on the USA weather section.

[HURAKAN]

I wouldn't take my eyes from the Caribbean but based on the performance of the computer models over the past weeks, I wouldn't pay too much attention either. Still too much shear and only a promise in the horizon for the atmosphere to become more favorable for development.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'll keep my eye
on 94l and other areas and see what
happens with it. The 12Z GFS DID form a low
pressure out of it and had a handle on a track...
So I will be watching closely for the possibility
of something forming. Florida needs
to watch the NW caribbean very closely.
I posted a link to the GFS on page 10, which
took it to FL.

Again, it may become nothing. But we
need to watch it.

[wxman57]

To clarify what JB was talking about, I made a few screenshots in GARP.

First, the current analysis over the NW Caribbean. Not much there but low pressure. Light winds:



Here's what the GFS is predicting for 7am Tuesday. The low over the western Caribbean moves across the Yucatan into the western Gulf then turns NNE toward LA:



European shows something similar. Low in SW Gulf, cold front nearing TX coast. A track to the NNE would be expected.



Just because the GFS and ECMWF are predicting development doesn't mean it will occur. It's just something to watch out for. Oh, NOGAPS is similar to the ECMWF but a little weaker with the low in the SW Gulf. UKMET and Canadian also show a similar pattern.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 122102
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCATED ABOUT 905 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A NEARLY STATIONARY AND LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA AND
JAMAICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SINCE
MOST OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW OVER LAND...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THIS
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[lrak]

As usual Mr. Waxman57 will it crank up the surf, even if it doesn't develope?

[wxman57]

As usual Mr. Waxman57 will it crank up the surf, even if it doesn't develop?

Any serious "surf-cranking" will require significant development. A weaker system may actually interfere with the long easterly fetch across the Gulf, reducing surf on the TX coast. So you could get bigger waves if nothing develops at all due to a long fetch of 15-20 kt winds across the Gulf. But if it becomes a strong TS or hurricane, then you could get some large waves. Lots of uncertainty this far out. Development is just a possibility, not a probability.

I'd add that checking the long-range GFS, I don't see anything on the horizon that might produce big waves into the TX coast after the middle of next week through the following week.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm so dissappointed!!!! No Surf LMAO....

I'm in my organic chemistry lab posting secretely

[cycloneye]

For those who are giving up the 2007 season,although is a very long range timeframe,GFS shows a developing system South of Cuba that moves NE.So there is a ray of hope for those who want to see some activity before the curtain closes for the 2007 season.

[flwxwatcher]

There is some support from the GFS ensembles for some Disturbed weather next week in the Gulf and longer term possible development in the NW Caribbean..


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html.

GFS 12Z ensembles at bottom of the page

[Sanibel]

94L could be creeping back out towards water off Belize. There's black-top IR there. Watching this area now.

[BigA]

What a strange long range GFS model on the 18 run! Moves a storm over eastern Cuba moving northeast, then hooks the storm back to the west toward the northeast US.

In any event, I think any development would come from the area north of Honduras, if it is sufficiently over water.

[fci]

Thanks for clarifying Porta. Sounds like he is not specifically talking about this new low off Belize/Yucatan.

Actually, he is. But not for certain it is a TC, but could be, but whatever it is feeds in moisture for a big severe outbreak.


Actually, JB needs a major hurricane to hit Florida for his pre-season forecast to work out. Erin and Humberto gave him the points he needed for Texas. But he is short overall (his logarithmic version of landfall intensity, with a TD=1 point and a Cat 5 =64 points) and he needs a lot of points for Florida.


If you look at GFS shear forecasts, nothing more than a wave can come close to Texas, no way a TC, even if it were heading this way, could survive, and one would assume any system of any strength at all would head Northeast, towards Florida.


Now, about this time next week, GFS forecasts very favorable shearfor extreme South Florida, but GFS shows no surface feature that could take advantage of it.

Ed:
Is the section I put in bold a joke?
JB NEEDS a hurricane for South Florida to get his points??????????

So, it comes down to a hope that JB can hit his numbers.

Now I have heard and seen everything.
The "JB fascination" has hit a new low.
And CREDIBILITY hits an equally low "low".

[chadtm80]

[Nimbus]

There is some rotation near 17N -87.5W. The surface pressures are low over a broad area so it may be that the LLC from the 94L remnants has recentered back out over water. I have not heard what JB thinks will happen with this system. If this area east of the Yucatan develops could it inhibit development in the western gulf?