Western Caribbean Thread

[caneman]

Nimbus,

The 06 GFS and CMC are showing this system moving NW towards TX and then slingshoting back NE toward Appalachacola. This solution seems reasonbable with more favorable condiions setting in and goes well with climo. I believe development would occur within 24-48 hours so its just a wait and see.

[caneman]

8;00 NHC discusssion places it at 19N and 87W

[cycloneye]

8:05 AM TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT 1005 MB LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN JUST N OF BELIZE NEAR 19N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N77W BUT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED BETWEEN E CUBA AND JAMAICA
NEAR 19N78W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE INTO THE W ATLC AND SW TO
THE COAST OF HONDURAS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. LOW LEVEL
AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
12N.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html
Definite cyclonic spin down in the corner. Building convection around the circulation this morning. This should become an Invest again. IMO

[cycloneye]

[Sanibel]

Don't know if that is 94L emerging back from land, but there's a definite cyclonic spin down there in the Bay of Honduras. Convection is a little weak with shear up the trough.

I never shout in this forum but: LET'S GET A FLOATER ON IT!

[Blown Away]

Come on baby, let's get this party started! We need and Invest, Floater, and then some Models to track this weekend from this area.

[Cyclone1]

Hey Luis, looks like the Invest craze is back!

All we needed was a lull.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131500
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL CUBA...AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT A
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF BELIZE. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS NOW OVER
WATER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RISING AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
WESTWARD AND MOVE BACK OVER LAND ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Cyclone1]

Drift westward? Hmm, doesn't look like it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thanks for clarifying Porta. Sounds like he is not specifically talking about this new low off Belize/Yucatan.

Actually, he is. But not for certain it is a TC, but could be, but whatever it is feeds in moisture for a big severe outbreak.


Actually, JB needs a major hurricane to hit Florida for his pre-season forecast to work out. Erin and Humberto gave him the points he needed for Texas. But he is short overall (his logarithmic version of landfall intensity, with a TD=1 point and a Cat 5 =64 points) and he needs a lot of points for Florida.


If you look at GFS shear forecasts, nothing more than a wave can come close to Texas, no way a TC, even if it were heading this way, could survive, and one would assume any system of any strength at all would head Northeast, towards Florida.


Now, about this time next week, GFS forecasts very favorable shearfor extreme South Florida, but GFS shows no surface feature that could take advantage of it.

Ed:
Is the section I put in bold a joke?
JB NEEDS a hurricane for South Florida to get his points??????????

So, it comes down to a hope that JB can hit his numbers.

Now I have heard and seen everything.
The "JB fascination" has hit a new low.
And CREDIBILITY hits an equally low "low".

I'm not sure he actually hopes a major hits Florida, he just explained a few days back where his pre-season forecast is coming up short, and Florida was his main target. He was just pointing out his forecast won't verify w/o a Florida hit.

[Ed Mahmoud]

And I don't hope for bad weather for anyplace either, if that is what you are implying.

Except snow storms for the Northeast, recalling my days back at St. Martin of Tours in Amityville, NY in the '70s before the family moved to Texas. The nuns weren't fun, and snow days rocked. 1978 was a most excellent year, a surpise January storm that was supposed to change to rain, and the early February storm good for 5 straight days off.

But, back to the tropics, pretty ignorant if you're accusing me of wishing a hurricane on Florida based on JB's discussion of where his 2007 forecast is coming up short.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't know if that is 94L emerging back from land, but there's a definite cyclonic spin down there in the Bay of Honduras. Convection is a little weak with shear up the trough.

I never shout in this forum but: LET'S GET A FLOATER ON IT!

We don't need a steenkin floater!



Home made visible floater loop (thanks, NASA!)

[BigA]

Looks like convection is building now that it is back over water. It doesnt look to be moving anywhere quickly.

[fci]

And I don't hope for bad weather for anyplace either, if that is what you are implying.

Except snow storms for the Northeast, recalling my days back at St. Martin of Tours in Amityville, NY in the '70s before the family moved to Texas. The nuns weren't fun, and snow days rocked. 1978 was a most excellent year, a surpise January storm that was supposed to change to rain, and the early February storm good for 5 straight days off.

But, back to the tropics, pretty ignorant if you're accusing me of wishing a hurricane on Florida based on JB's discussion of where his 2007 forecast is coming up short.

Ed:
Not for one second implying that you wish anything bad for Florida or anyplace at all.
Was not my point at all.
And your choice of the word "ignorant" to describe me is insulting.

My point is that I see, from you; and others a fascination and (actually for some) worship for JB.
So if he or anyone else is implying that there is a desire for a hurricane for Florida so the adulation can be justified with him scoring well on points; it cuts at any credibility that is bestowed upon his words.

My hope is that people don't want to see "points" scored to make him look good.
What has this come to when HE sets up a point scale to PROVE that he is good?
Being a Pro should be reason enough to justify his knowledge and forecasts and not some point system.

This is NOT some sport.

[Ed Mahmoud]

And I don't hope for bad weather for anyplace either, if that is what you are implying.

Except snow storms for the Northeast, recalling my days back at St. Martin of Tours in Amityville, NY in the '70s before the family moved to Texas. The nuns weren't fun, and snow days rocked. 1978 was a most excellent year, a surpise January storm that was supposed to change to rain, and the early February storm good for 5 straight days off.

But, back to the tropics, pretty ignorant if you're accusing me of wishing a hurricane on Florida based on JB's discussion of where his 2007 forecast is coming up short.

Ed:
Not for one second implying that you wish anything bad for Florida or anyplace at all.
Was not my point at all.
And your choice of the word "ignorant" to describe me is insulting.

My point is that I see, from you; and others a fascination and (actually for some) worship for JB.
So if he or anyone else is implying that there is a desire for a hurricane for Florida so the adulation can be justified with him scoring well on points; it cuts at any credibility that is bestowed upon his words.

My hope is that people don't want to see "points" scored to make him look good.
What has this come to when HE sets up a point scale to PROVE that he is good?
Being a Pro should be reason enough to justify his knowledge and forecasts and not some point system.

This is NOT some sport.

OK, we just miscommunicated.

JB feels the need, and I'm not sure he is wrong, to have a numerical score that can be applied to his forecasts. He grades after the fact his temp and precip forecasts for an area, and he grades his pre-season hurricane forecast, where he assigns intensity points for the US coast divided into regions, after the fact. It is an attempt at accountability, in a sense.

I was just saying JB's forecast is generally going well, but he is over-forecast on total US landfall intensity and Florida landfall intensity, and a major hurricane hitting Florida would give him nearly a perfect forecast on both counts, not that he wants anyone to get hit by a major hurricane.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I actually like JB's point system. He predicts a number early in the year and then we get to see if he was right at the end of the season. Enough said. He is not wishing for a storm to hit anywhere, he is only trying to show us..using his pro met abilities..where impacts are most likely to occur during a given season. Sure, like most mets, he is bound to get some things wrong (b/c no one is perfect), but I really do not think his method should be bashed. I have seen plenty of other early season "landfall predictions" that were much, much worse with less meteorological backing. At least JB is giving us an honest prediction with good meteorological reasoning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

As far as JB worship goes, he is still suggesting (at 6:30 pm EDT Friday) a TD or TS for Louisiana or even Texas later this week, and looking at all the models, I can't see any way that he can be correct.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

The 12z Canadian has some moistere moving NE into the Florida Panhandle and continues thru the SE part of the U.S,but no cyclone.

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, updated JB, still a TC threat for Louisiana or even Texas, (10 am EDT) and Central Caribbean system potential Florida threat.


Still no model support I can see. GFS brings a decent (850 mb) low level feature to the Fla Panhandle in 3 days, but no obvious surface pressure reflection.

Edit to change 4 days to 3 days, add image: