Wave over C Carribean a candidate for Development

[Sanibel]

Got fooled by that east Caribbean wave last night. It looked like a bursting tight system quickly coming together but was just a good rotating burst of convection. The trough is lifting out in shear. 2007 beat even this hanging trough.

No development for now, but anything can happen further west. Too much shear right now along the trough remnant.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What is happening with this wave now????

[Vortex]

I agree Sanibel..Unless things change BIGTIME I don't foresee much left this season...I'm getting ready to shut things down until 08' it appears..

[cycloneye]

I agree Sanibel..Unless things change BIGTIME I don't foresee much left this season...I'm getting ready to shut things down until 08' it appears..

But you were very enthusiastic with the models,posting every run.What happened with that?

[gatorcane]

I agree Sanibel..Unless things change BIGTIME I don't foresee much left this season...I'm getting ready to shut things down until 08' it appears..

But you were very enthusiastic with the models,posting every run.What happened with that?

Vortex if you thought that wave was going to develop in the E Caribbean, you were bound to be wrong since the chances of tropical development in the Caribbean increase the farther west you go this time of year. We still need to see what happens as it hits the low pressure in the Western Caribbean.

So it still needs to be watch but give it about 3-4 more days.

[Sanibel]

I'm still watching the west Caribbean. Whenever there's black-topped IR in the Caribbean at this time of year I watch it. It could be that nothing has come together because 94L is still the trough axis center.

[Vortex]

I felt so strongly about this area for days as did the models then today's models backed off, shear increased, and thunderstorm activity diminshed. Just abit frustrating when trying to predict things this year as compared to most years in the past...

[Frank2]

On the other hand, if Dean and Felix had headed towards Texas (as some thought, especially for Dean), we'd be dealing with gas prices much higher than at present (2.89 locally as of the past few days - we've not seen it "that low" for a long time), hundreds of thousands more likely displaced into an already very stressed surrounding area, and, even more stress on an already overworked national guard, so, as mentioned a few weeks ago, as I get older I'm finding out that if something turns out better than expected (or quieter, in this case), we should give thanks for the nice surprise that it is, even if it means weather enthusiasts have few systems to track...

Frank

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This wave has some more convection but I'm not
expecting much right now due to shear of trough.


I agree frank. Even though there were fewer systems to track
and experience, it is much better and a blessing that this
year was quiet along the gulf coast except humberto.

I always am praying for everyone on the gulf coast
who had devastation from katrina and rita. And I hope
and pray that no storms hit the gulf coast in areas that
have suffered.

Even though I think it is exciting to watch a storm, it is better
if no storms come and if there is no damage.

[Cyclone1]

When this wave interacts with that trough/low, convection should increase. That will be golden hour for this blob, any development should occur then.

[Sanibel]

Not sure how much there is to this wave. Still signs of tiny spin to it.

[Vortex]

Let's watch the runs of the Nogaps the next few days. Over the last 10 years or so I've found the Nogaps model to be one of the most accurate in predicting TC formation in the month of October over the western Carribean.

The most recent run indicates deep convection persisting over the SW carribean this upcoming week. This often is the case before the model latches on to something of a closed low. I will post runs of this model and break it down when/if necessary

12Z NOGAPS 10/13
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2007101312

[Vortex]

00Z NAM

indicates formation of low over SW carribean

H+84

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Vortex]

NAM LOOP

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Vortex]

Appears to develop as monsoon trough lifts north from panama/colombia

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Appears to develop as monsoon trough lifts north from panama/colombia

Not looking very good tonight....oh well...we'll see.

If the convection doesn't refire with the lifting of
that monsoon trough, then it might not develop...

[Vortex]

TBH,

I wouldn't expect anything for about 2-3 days according to the model guidance and then things could really change.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks vortex. I'll keep an eye on it.
As you can tell I am bad at predicting \
things LOL.

[Sanibel]

The models have had good luck at systems emerging from Colombia this year.

[boca]

It looks like our system in the Cental Caribbean south of Jamaica will move west without much fanfare. I was hoping vortex would be correct on this one, darn.