Tropical Depression Kiko in EPac

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 131001
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

645
WHXX01 KMIA 131239
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC SAT OCT 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902007) 20071013 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071013 1200 071014 0000 071014 1200 071015 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 106.3W 14.6N 107.3W 15.2N 108.3W 15.7N 109.1W
BAMD 13.8N 106.3W 14.7N 107.6W 15.6N 108.8W 16.0N 109.8W
BAMM 13.8N 106.3W 14.9N 107.2W 15.9N 108.1W 16.3N 108.9W
LBAR 13.8N 106.3W 14.5N 107.4W 15.4N 108.6W 16.2N 109.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071015 1200 071016 1200 071017 1200 071018 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 109.9W 15.8N 111.3W 15.2N 112.5W 14.6N 113.4W
BAMD 15.8N 111.0W 15.1N 113.6W 13.8N 116.1W 12.4N 118.3W
BAMM 16.3N 110.0W 15.8N 112.4W 14.9N 114.4W 14.1N 115.3W
LBAR 16.8N 110.7W 18.1N 112.4W 19.9N 113.6W 22.7N 114.7W
SHIP 51KTS 59KTS 64KTS 61KTS
DSHP 51KTS 59KTS 64KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 106.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 105.2W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 103.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Chacor]

A hurricane. Maybe.

[cycloneye]

Looking good.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe the slow EPac season will finally pick up?

[Cyclone1]

Maybe the slow EPac season will finally pick up?

Nah. In fact, a storm this late in a La Nina season is somewhat of a rarity. Could be the Epac's last breath.

[CrazyC83]

13/1130 UTC 14.1N 106.3W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131608
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[RL3AO]

Unless this becomes a long tracking major hurricane 2007 will have the second lowest ACE recorded.

[chadtm80]

Forecast Models - http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... d=90&size=

Outlook: http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[chadtm80]

....

[Cyclenall]

This is highly likely to be a last possible system of the amazingly boring 2007 Epac hurricane season.

[HurricaneRobert]

It's weird how this and the Atlantic will have lower ACE values than last season. The WPac seems quieter too.

[HURAKAN]

I agree. Everything this year in the northern hemisphere has "seemed" to be quiet.

[RL3AO]

TCFA issued

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 132100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 106.3W TO 14.7N 109.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9N 106.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.0N 106.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 131329Z WINDSAT IMAGE INDICATES WINDS
OF 15-20 KTS NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE
IS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SOUTH OF A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142100Z.//

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132244
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 140032
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC SUN OCT 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902007) 20071014 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071014 0000 071014 1200 071015 0000 071015 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 107.4W 14.8N 108.3W 15.3N 108.9W 15.4N 109.3W
BAMD 14.0N 107.4W 15.0N 108.3W 15.6N 109.0W 15.6N 109.8W
BAMM 14.0N 107.4W 15.1N 108.3W 15.7N 109.0W 15.8N 109.8W
LBAR 14.0N 107.4W 14.7N 108.3W 15.4N 109.3W 15.8N 110.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071016 0000 071017 0000 071018 0000 071019 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 109.8W 15.2N 110.7W 14.9N 111.2W 15.4N 111.5W
BAMD 15.2N 110.9W 14.1N 113.4W 12.8N 115.2W 12.8N 115.7W
BAMM 15.6N 110.8W 15.1N 113.0W 14.2N 114.8W 14.2N 115.3W
LBAR 16.3N 111.2W 16.9N 113.0W 17.8N 115.0W 19.5N 117.6W
SHIP 52KTS 56KTS 57KTS 52KTS
DSHP 52KTS 56KTS 57KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 107.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 106.3W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 105.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[RL3AO]

The models show...it will go somewhere.

[Cyclone1]

The models show...it will go somewhere.

LOL, good analysis.