Western Caribbean Thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Dear Western Caribbean Disturbance/Ex94L,

Get that spin going today baby,
and we can both spin together ALL NIGHT LONG.
Come on baby make me happy and fufill my
desires. Give me that thrill and adrenaline rush I want
from you so badly.I'll bring the beer to the hurricane party, and I'll
buy you some beer as well.

Thank you,


Sincerely with a lot of Love,
Tampa Bay Hurricane



I'm Sorry Everyone I couldn't restrain myself I am really
desperate for this disturbance and can't wait much longer.

[Cyclone1]

Um........








OOoooookay... I guess I can't blame you for anything. I wrote a eulogy for 99L Invest in August.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dear Western Caribbean Disturbance/Ex94L,

Get that spin going today baby,
and we can both spin together ALL NIGHT LONG.
Come on baby make me happy and fufill my
desires. Give me that thrill and adrenaline rush I want
from you so badly.I'll bring the beer to the hurricane party, and I'll
buy you some beer as well.

Thank you,


Sincerely with a lot of Love,
Tampa Bay Hurricane




I'm Sorry Everyone I couldn't restrain myself I am really
desperate for this disturbance and can't wait much longer.

Well, JB probably doesn't really want a major Florida hurricane, but perhaps somebody does.


If Texas was a two season state like Florida (wet/hurricane season, and dry/not hurricane season), and I didn't have two seasons of strong thunderstorms, and several months of potential winter weather to look forward to, maybe I'd be the same way.

Texas- no income tax, no earthquakes, four seasons, including winter, but the nasty cold only comes (well, not if you live in Dalhart or Amarillo, talking Houston area) a few days each year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

[HURAKAN]

There is still 6 more weeks of hurricane season, but looking at the Atlantic right now makes you wonder if anything else will develop across the basin. I think there is still the possibility for us to see Noel before everything is set in stone.

Anyone thinking on June 1, 2008?!?!?!?!?

[Cyclone1]

If "Noel" forms in 2008, the WMO director would be fired.

That name would be Arthur.

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DRIFTED TO THE E SLIGHTLY CENTERED
OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N86W...ANALYZED 1007 MB AT 15Z.
THIS LOW EXTENDS AN ELONGATED TROUGH NEWARD ACROSS WRN CUBA AND
SWD INTO HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 20N.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED FURTHER TO THE NE OVER CENTRAL CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS N OF 20N BETWEEN 77W-79W...LIKELY ENHANCED BY
THE UPPER JET MENTIONED IN THE GULF SECTION. ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
BEFORE IT DRIFTS BACK WWD OVER LAND ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There is still 6 more weeks of hurricane season, but looking at the Atlantic right now makes you wonder if anything else will develop across the basin. I think there is still the possibility for us to see Noel before everything is set in stone.

Anyone thinking on June 1, 2008?!?!?!?!?

Would it be 'The First Noel'? Would angels sing?



(lets hope for a STS to form on 12/24/2007!)

[HURAKAN]

If "Noel" forms in 2008, the WMO director would be fired.

That name would be Arthur.

I meant to say that if anyone is thinking on the next season, not that Noel will form in 2008.

[Vortex]

I sure didn't expect this pattern for October given LaNina etc

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132127
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND OF
ROATAN. THIS LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
YUCATAN IN A DAY OR SO. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC COAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[MGC]

The only chance this low has to futher develope is for it to move N or NE. Looks like it is going to drift about as the trough to its north moves east. It should then start moving westward over ther Yucatan where it will dissipate. Very low probility of anything coming of this. It has just been beautiful here on the Mississippi Gulf Coast the past couple of days. Our tropical season is over.....MGC

[BigA]

NHC seems open minded about this in any event. Most of the models look like it will get pulled north, then NE into the GOM, but only the FSU model has it developing. HMM, had to look up where Roatan is.

[Category 5]

Dear Western Caribbean Disturbance/Ex94L,

Get that spin going today baby,
and we can both spin together ALL NIGHT LONG.
Come on baby make me happy and fufill my
desires. Give me that thrill and adrenaline rush I want
from you so badly.I'll bring the beer to the hurricane party, and I'll
buy you some beer as well.

Thank you,


Sincerely with a lot of Love,
Tampa Bay Hurricane



I'm Sorry Everyone I couldn't restrain myself I am really
desperate for this disturbance and can't wait much longer.

..... wow. THATS commitment. I wish you two the best.

[cycloneye]

NHC seems open minded about this in any event. Most of the models look like it will get pulled north, then NE into the GOM, but only the FSU model has it developing. HMM, had to look up where Roatan is.

Roatan Observations

Latitud and Longitud of Roatan= 16-19N 086-31W

[Cyclone1]

I sure didn't expect this pattern for October given LaNina etc

Well, the reason for the sudden lull despite the La Nina is this.

Conditions are actually pretty good in the Atlantic, characteristic of a weak/average La Nina. But, even perfect conditions without something to develop (such as a wave or a tropical low) are completely useless. There haven't really been any decent waves this month.

No waves + favorable conditions = No storms

They'll come. Unfortunately, this lull can't last much longer. This low is looking like something for these favorable conditions to develop. So the equation changes, Weak low + favorable condtions = storm? We'll see.

And Then comes steering, but we'll discuss this next class.

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ANALYZED
1005 MB AT 2100 UTC NEAR 17N86W OR JUST N OF THE ISLAND OF
ROATAN. AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS NEWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS
WRN CUBA. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. A
STRONGER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NOTED BETWEEN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND ERN CUBA...N OF 19N BETWEEN 76W-81W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER JET MENTIONED IN THE GULF
SECTION. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER YUCATAN IN A DAY OR SO. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 140208
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC COAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

NICE spin to it, looks to be developing
right now in that image hurakan.


BUT will it survive the yucatan?