Wave over C Carribean a candidate for Development

[Vortex]

00Z GFS joins NOGAPS and develops low over SW carribean

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

H+126

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

[gatorcane]

Vortex I would change the title of this thread. I highly doubt it is a "strong" candidate for development. Next please.

[Vortex]

something to "possible developments this week over sw carribean" is more appropriate

[gatorcane]

Vortex I have to say something is not adding up this season. We have a la nina and NOTHING besides Dean and Felix (and Humberto) looked remotely close to a tropical system....every other system has been highly sheared and has produced winds no stronger than the typical afternoon summer thunderstorm here in South Florida.

what is wrong with the Atlantic this year?

[Cyclone1]

Vortex I have to say something is not adding up this season. We have a la nina and NOTHING besides Dean and Felix (and Humberto) looked remotely close to a tropical system....every other system has been highly sheared and has produced winds no stronger than the typical afternoon summer thunderstorm here in South Florida.

what is wrong with the Atlantic this year?

I see nothing wrong with a season setting a record for landfalling category fives in a single season, one of which placing third worldwide for RI, all while setting a rapid intensification record from TD to hurricane that was broken just weeks later. A record for subtropical cyclones was tied this year also, and Dean reached into the top 3 strongest landfalls ever. Top ten strongest Atl storms ever. A storm in May, and a storm on opening day. A tropical storm on Oklahoma... I could go on and on.

Record setting seasons don't have to be extraordinarily active.

[cpdaman]

N of 20 and E of 90 there has been NADA all year.

i guess the lower 48 minus florida can celebrate (its not over down in fl though)

[caneman]

Vortex,

It look like your patience is paying off with a possilbe LLC developing. Models finally getting something right. However, it looks like it is gonna just keep going West until it runs into Central America. From the 8:00 NHC Disco:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH A
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CENTER BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE DUE TO STRONG
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOCATED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
.

[Honeyko]

Based upon healthy-looking pre-dawn IR shortwave, I'm speculating TD at present (with Discussion #1 at 11am as NHC awaits persistence), and TS at landfall in Nicaragua.

[wxman57]

Surface obs don't indicate any LLC, just 5-10kt winds from varying directions in a high-shear environment. Just a sheared tropical wave. Conditions aloft unfavorable for development. I'll post more in the main west Caribbean thread. Not going to post twice on the same subject in two different threads.

[cycloneye]

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