INVEST 98L : WestCentral Caribbean : Gone fron NRL

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Post away about this invest in the Caribbean.Vortex,you perserverance paid off.

Link to thread in Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98602&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 141247
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC SUN OCT 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20071014 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071014 1200 071015 0000 071015 1200 071016 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 76.5W 14.0N 79.1W 14.8N 81.9W 15.7N 84.6W
BAMD 13.3N 76.5W 13.4N 79.3W 13.5N 81.9W 13.9N 84.3W
BAMM 13.3N 76.5W 13.9N 79.0W 14.5N 81.5W 15.2N 83.9W
LBAR 13.3N 76.5W 13.8N 79.4W 14.7N 82.5W 16.0N 85.7W
SHIP 20KTS 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 20KTS 23KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071016 1200 071017 1200 071018 1200 071019 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 87.1W 19.7N 91.0W 22.1N 93.5W 23.9N 94.9W
BAMD 14.4N 86.4W 15.9N 90.4W 17.4N 93.4W 18.5N 96.2W
BAMM 16.1N 86.0W 18.0N 89.8W 20.0N 92.6W 21.6N 94.6W
LBAR 17.6N 88.5W 21.4N 91.7W 25.9N 90.0W 26.6N 85.8W
SHIP 33KTS 48KTS 57KTS 59KTS
DSHP 29KTS 30KTS 37KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 76.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 73.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 71.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 165NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[wxman57]

Don't you ever sleep, cycloneye?

I see the NHC declared this wave as 98L, but development chances look pretty low. As we've seen, most invests never develop. And earlier or later in the season, such invests have even a lower chance of developing. But about the only place semi-favorable for development is the southern Gulf of Mexico. Development chances slim, but not completely out of the question. I'd ignore the BAM models and look at the dynamic models which take the disturbance into the SW Gulf by Tuesday then northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast by next Thursday. The farther north it tracks, the stronger the upper-level winds (i.e., the greater the wind shear), though.

[Cyclone1]

Next one is up! Finally, first chance at a storm since September.

NRL still doesn't have any imagery up.

[Cyclone1]

LBAR looks interesting...

[cycloneye]

Don't you ever sleep, cycloneye?

57,as a matter of fact,I went early offline last night and slept,more than other nights. Normally,I sleep around 6 hours,last night it was 8.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I wish it would turn north rather than northwest
on the track

[Recurve]

Interesting pattern. Boundary between maritime tropical and drier air over south florida. Yesterday showers were moving both NE and SW in the straits. There's a bit of cyclonic spin south of Puerto Rico, don't know if that's along a tropical wave or UL. The NCEP fronts show the low right at the Yucatan with the convection farther north almost in the yucatan channel now.

from 830 TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH A
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CENTER BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE DUE TO STRONG
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOCATED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 76W-79W.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

good call vortex on saying this would
be the one to watch.

This with favorable conditions and low shear
and high heat content waters has a chance
of becoming a tropical depression.

[Recurve]

Latest AVN enhanced showing low and 98L

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a possible closed surface circulation, but exposed. Some easterly shear perhaps

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &SIZE=full

[cycloneye]

Any quickscat data for this?

[Thunder44]

Any quickscat data for this?

Show it well here, but winds around the center are too weak:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas20.png

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Edit: Wxman57 answered my questions in a post above.

[cycloneye]

LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 76.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 73.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 71.0W

They haved been tracking the low for more than 24 hours.

[wxman57]

Just a weak swirl for the low center displaced east of the convection near 13.5N/76.5W. Observations indicate winds 5-10 kts in the region. Strong NE wind shear dominates. Development chances about zero in the Caribbean. May be a slight chance of development if/when it reaches the SW Gulf Tuesday.

[wxman57]

LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 76.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 73.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 71.0W

They have been tracking the low for more than 24 hours.

cycloneye,

We've been tracking it for at least 6 days as a tropical wave in the central Atlantic Oct. 8th-9th. But there hasn't been any evident low-level turning until now.

[gatorcane]

I'm not sure why this is an invest. NHC doesn't mention it and it looks like nothing but a strong wave heavily sheared from the NE as Wxman says --- it will more than likely crash into Central America.

Next please. Still waiting for a real invest. It has been a while.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Don't lose hope gatorcane...wxman57 says once it merges
with 94l the steering takes it into the GOM
and then some rain may finally come to
the drought stricken southeast.

Regardless of development the rain would be nice
over the drought areas especially georgia.

[wzrgirl1]

ok i will be the first to ask......any chance of this being a south florida storm?