INVEST 98L : WestCentral Caribbean : Gone fron NRL

[Sanibel]

Yes, this had spin two nights ago and even yesterday. Just sheared and weak (who would ever think a system would be sheared and weak in 2007?) Looks headed towards Nicaragua. Meanwhile the 94L remnant feature is sitting there spinning off Yucatan. The 2007 flurry continues. SST's cook them up and shear knocks them down.

Once again, they don't bother to put a Floater on it.

Anyone else notice the weird outflow boundary coming west to east from Nicaragua?

[Extremeweatherguy]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_98.gif

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 141455
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1455 UTC SUN OCT 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20071014 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071014 1200 071015 0000 071015 1200 071016 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 86.2W 19.1N 87.7W 20.2N 89.4W 21.4N 91.1W
BAMD 18.2N 86.2W 19.0N 87.6W 19.9N 89.2W 21.1N 90.8W
BAMM 18.2N 86.2W 19.0N 87.6W 20.0N 89.3W 21.2N 91.0W
LBAR 18.2N 86.2W 18.9N 87.4W 20.0N 89.2W 21.6N 91.1W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071016 1200 071017 1200 071018 1200 071019 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.6N 92.6W 25.0N 94.7W 28.2N 94.5W 32.1N 91.6W
BAMD 22.3N 91.7W 24.9N 92.4W 29.1N 87.4W 32.6N 76.6W
BAMM 22.4N 92.1W 24.9N 93.6W 28.5N 91.5W 32.4N 86.8W
LBAR 23.6N 92.0W 27.6N 90.4W 30.7N 84.0W 33.7N 74.8W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 45KTS 38KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 43KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 86.2W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 85.5W DIRM12 = 325DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 84.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[CrazyC83]

ok i will be the first to ask......any chance of this being a south florida storm?

Anything that forms in that area in October has that chance with the northerly flow...

[Thunder44]

From the 11:30am TWO:

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED AND
DISORGANIZED. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR TWO.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... mid=&size=

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... mid=&size=

[jlauderdal]

LBAR looks interesting...

the following models are not followed:
wxman 57 cmc, nam
ortt euro
jlauderdal lbar

[wxman57]

ok i will be the first to ask......any chance of this being a south florida storm?

Anything that forms in that area in October has that chance with the northerly flow...

No need to resort to climatology for a short-term forecast. Current projections have a ridge over south Florida by late this week. Such a pattern would steer anything that reaches the central Gulf to the FL panhandle westward. Southern Florida would not be threatened. Actually, the pattern out there is not typical for this time of year.

[Brent]

I'm not sure why this is an invest. NHC doesn't mention it and it looks like nothing but a strong wave heavily sheared from the NE as Wxman says --- it will more than likely crash into Central America.

Next please. Still waiting for a real invest. It has been a while.

LOL, for real. I'm thinking it'll be next season before we get one.

[cycloneye]

Big outflow boundarie and LLC exposed because od 25kt upper winds,not a favorable indications for 98L to develop.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Cycloneye I guess we'll have to wait for
june of 2008 before we have anything
with a real chance of development to
watch.

[RL3AO]

That confirms there is at least a pretty well defined llc

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

The 12z Canadian is all Mexico.

[Ivanhater]

Reminds me of an Opal '95 track

[Cyclone1]

Reminds me of an Opal '95 track

Now that you mention it, it does.

[flwxwatcher]

12z CMC

The 12z Canadian is all Mexico.

Not exactly sure what Feature the Canadian is developing but it also looks like it is drawing the energy from the EPAC into its Gulf System.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Thunder44]

Big outflow boundarie and LLC exposed because od 25kt upper winds,not a favorable indications for 98L to develop.

That's not an outflow boundary, at least not from 98L thunderstorms. Notice it's moving to the east towards the wave. I think some type of seabreeze front.

[cycloneye]

077
WHXX04 KWBC 141723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.5 85.8 315./ 4.1
6 18.3 85.6 135./ 2.9
12 18.5 87.6 277./19.7
18 18.8 88.3 295./ 7.1
24 19.4 90.6 285./22.1
30 20.0 91.2 315./ 8.4
36 20.0 91.9 263./ 7.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 36 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


12z GFDL

[Cyclone1]

"TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L"

Interesting...