INVEST 98L : WestCentral Caribbean : Gone fron NRL

[cycloneye]

200
WHXX04 KWBC 141731
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.9 76.9 280./13.0
6 13.8 77.4 332./10.7
12 14.0 79.3 276./18.6
18 14.6 80.7 291./15.1
24 15.4 82.6 293./19.6
30 16.2 84.3 296./18.7
36 16.9 85.8 295./15.4
42 17.3 87.3 284./15.5
48 18.2 88.2 317./13.0
54 19.0 89.8 296./17.0
60 19.6 91.2 294./13.8
66 20.3 92.4 299./14.1
72 21.4 93.4 318./13.9
78 22.5 94.1 326./12.3
84 23.3 94.7 326./ 9.9
90 24.5 95.1 341./12.4
96 25.5 95.2 351./10.8
102 26.4 95.0 19./ 8.6
108 27.5 94.8 9./11.8
114 29.1 93.9 29./17.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 114 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

12z GFDL for 98L.

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM TWD:

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W...WITH
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG IT NEAR 13N. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG...FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS 1006 MB LOW
CENTER TO MOVE CLOSE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 30 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE PATH CARVED OUT BY HURRICANE
FELIX OF THIS YEAR.

[Sanibel]

This system has a healthy rotation. You can just see an ever so slight WNW component.

[jaxfladude]

Yucatan Peninsula and points south sure are getting them this year with actual hits and model tracks......

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL Intensity Animation for 98L

It shows a Tropical Storm.

[Nimbus]

There does seem to be a cute little surface circulation moving N or NNW not far from where This thing first started spinning up yesterday NW of Roatan island. I would keep tracking the surface LLC unless it turns into a naked swirl. Should come in south of Cozumel but gulf development could still occur.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 141847
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC SUN OCT 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20071014 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071014 1800 071015 0600 071015 1800 071016 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 77.5W 14.0N 80.2W 15.0N 82.8W 16.0N 85.2W
BAMD 13.3N 77.5W 13.2N 80.4W 13.2N 83.0W 13.4N 85.2W
BAMM 13.3N 77.5W 13.6N 80.3W 14.1N 83.0W 14.9N 85.2W
LBAR 13.3N 77.5W 13.4N 80.1W 14.1N 83.1W 15.3N 86.1W
SHIP 20KTS 19KTS 20KTS 24KTS
DSHP 20KTS 19KTS 20KTS 23KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071016 1800 071017 1800 071018 1800 071019 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 87.3W 19.9N 91.3W 22.6N 93.6W 25.2N 94.8W
BAMD 13.8N 87.2W 14.7N 90.6W 15.7N 93.3W 16.7N 95.6W
BAMM 15.5N 87.2W 17.1N 91.1W 18.6N 94.1W 19.3N 97.4W
LBAR 16.9N 89.0W 20.6N 92.8W 24.1N 92.3W 28.0N 88.6W
SHIP 29KTS 41KTS 54KTS 64KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 77.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 75.2W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 72.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

818
WHXX01 KWBC 141858
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1858 UTC SUN OCT 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20071014 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071014 1800 071015 0600 071015 1800 071016 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 87.0W 19.4N 88.7W 20.6N 90.4W 21.9N 92.0W
BAMD 18.5N 87.0W 19.2N 88.5W 20.1N 90.1W 21.2N 91.5W
BAMM 18.5N 87.0W 19.3N 88.6W 20.4N 90.5W 21.6N 91.9W
LBAR 18.5N 87.0W 19.1N 88.3W 20.4N 90.2W 22.1N 91.8W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071016 1800 071017 1800 071018 1800 071019 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.1N 93.4W 25.8N 95.6W 29.8N 94.3W 36.1N 88.7W
BAMD 22.1N 92.4W 24.5N 93.7W 28.4N 91.2W 33.8N 83.1W
BAMM 22.7N 93.0W 25.3N 94.7W 29.3N 92.6W 35.3N 86.0W
LBAR 24.1N 92.5W 28.4N 90.3W 32.6N 83.4W 35.7N 73.0W
SHIP 41KTS 47KTS 45KTS 39KTS
DSHP 41KTS 47KTS 46KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 85.9W DIRM12 = 320DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 84.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Thunder44]

It still appears the NHC is track the center to the north. Hence, no upgrade yet. It will be over land soon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_98.gif

Current runs say Mexico, TX or LA.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... mid=&size=

Updated

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_99.gif

Current runs say Mexico, TX or LA.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A well defined LLC has developed, with 25 knot winds. All it needs is convection and we will have our selfs noal.

[cycloneye]

[Cyclone1]

Convection a bit on the increase.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142100
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENISULA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[lrak]

it looks to have increased its speed WNW.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a ULL pulling in behind this disturbance.

[wxman57]

Weak, exposed low-level swirl, 10-15 kt winds around the low. Strong NE wind shear. All point to a very low chance of development in the Caribbean. If/when some of the moisture reaches the SW Gulf there might be potential for development, but not in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150159
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2007

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME