Tropical Depression Kiko in EPac

[Chacor]

It's weird how this and the Atlantic will have lower ACE values than last season. The WPac seems quieter too.

WPac is fairly normal after the recent spike in activity.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[cycloneye]

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 UTC SUN OCT 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902007) 20071014 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071014 1200 071015 0000 071015 1200 071016 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 108.4W 15.3N 108.8W 15.3N 109.1W 15.3N 109.4W
BAMD 14.9N 108.4W 15.5N 109.2W 15.5N 110.0W 15.3N 111.0W
BAMM 14.9N 108.4W 15.5N 108.8W 15.6N 109.3W 15.4N 109.9W
LBAR 14.9N 108.4W 15.6N 109.1W 16.2N 110.1W 16.6N 111.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071016 1200 071017 1200 071018 1200 071019 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 109.9W 15.5N 110.3W 16.2N 110.8W 17.4N 111.8W
BAMD 15.0N 112.1W 13.7N 114.5W 12.7N 115.5W 13.2N 114.8W
BAMM 15.3N 110.9W 15.0N 112.4W 15.0N 113.2W 16.1N 113.2W
LBAR 17.0N 112.2W 18.1N 114.0W 19.5N 116.1W 20.8N 118.6W
SHIP 50KTS 55KTS 58KTS 53KTS
DSHP 50KTS 55KTS 58KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 108.4W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 107.5W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 106.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[RL3AO]

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141609
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT
WELL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES VERY
LITTLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

This is another case of a system that if it were located in the Atlantic and close to land, it would be already a depression. Systems in the EPAC need to pass a more rigorous test before being upgraded.

14/1200 UTC 14.3N 108.5W T2.0/2.0 90E
14/0600 UTC 14.7N 108.5W T2.0/2.0 90E

[CrazyC83]

This is another case of a system that if it were located in the Atlantic and close to land, it would be already a depression. Systems in the EPAC need to pass a more rigorous test before being upgraded.

14/1200 UTC 14.3N 108.5W T2.0/2.0 90E
14/0600 UTC 14.7N 108.5W T2.0/2.0 90E

Presumably due to the fact that it is no threat to anyone, they can let it go for now...still I would call it a TD...

[Cyclenall]

I think it's a depression as well. I wonder what the track will be for this one since the models are not in any agreement at all. Last night the models all showed at least a TS out of this. Today it's showing:

GFDL: At least a CAT1 (strong CAT1) and the movement is slow and erratic near the mid to end of the 12Z run

HWRF: Weak TS and the movement is slow but not stationary in the 12Z run

GFS: Little movement and it disappears at the end of the run

CMC: Moves into Mexico as a TS?

UKMET: A TS and moves it a bit to the east and then more north

NOGAPS: Very weak system that moves a little to the east and then sort of disappears near the end

[HURAKAN]

This has to be close to a depression, if it's not one already.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 142259
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ILL
DEFINED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


WWWW

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 150054
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0054 UTC MON OCT 15 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (EP152007) 20071015 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071015 0000 071015 1200 071016 0000 071016 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 108.5W 15.2N 108.8W 15.4N 109.2W 15.5N 109.8W
BAMD 14.9N 108.5W 15.1N 109.2W 15.1N 110.0W 15.0N 111.1W
BAMM 14.9N 108.5W 15.2N 108.8W 15.3N 109.4W 15.3N 110.2W
LBAR 14.9N 108.5W 15.1N 109.0W 15.5N 109.8W 15.8N 110.9W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 45KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071017 0000 071018 0000 071019 0000 071020 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 110.2W 15.9N 110.8W 16.5N 110.9W 17.6N 111.5W
BAMD 14.8N 112.3W 14.2N 114.4W 14.1N 116.2W 14.3N 117.5W
BAMM 15.4N 111.1W 15.2N 112.4W 15.5N 113.3W 16.3N 113.6W
LBAR 16.1N 111.9W 17.1N 114.1W 18.0N 116.4W 19.2N 118.9W
SHIP 50KTS 51KTS 48KTS 43KTS
DSHP 50KTS 51KTS 48KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 108.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 108.3W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 107.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


We will have TD 15-E at the 8 PM PDT first advisory..

[chadtm80]

Indeed we will.. Storm2k software has dropped 90E and recieved upgrade message, and will begain outputing at 8pm PDT

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Is now Noname.

[Chacor]

EP, 15, 2007101500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1085W, 30, 1003, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, M,

[Chacor]

There now appears to be two separate areas of convection.

[HURAKAN]

580
WTPZ25 KNHC 150247
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.2N 108.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.4N 108.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.7N 107.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 108.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

579
WTPZ45 KNHC 150247
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION
TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER FOR 6 TO 12
HOURS...AND THIS PATTERN HAS YIELDED DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON
THIS DATA. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD
RELAX A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ALLOWING SOME OPPORTUNITY
FOR STRENGTHENING. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN IN
2-3 DAYS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT OR EVEN
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS THOUGHT TO BE A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AT 360/2.
THE EVENTUAL TRACK IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH
OF THE CYCLONE. A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO MOVE
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT
CURRENTLY EXISTS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. CONVERSELY...A STRONGER
AND DEEPER CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO MOVE WESTWARD...ALBEIT
SLOWLY...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES
ALONG 22N LATITUDE. SINCE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE OPTIMAL FOR STRENGTHENING...A VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
IS SHOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 15.0N 108.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.2N 108.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.4N 108.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 15.7N 107.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 16.5N 107.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 109.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION
TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER FOR 6 TO 12
HOURS...AND THIS PATTERN HAS YIELDED DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON
THIS DATA. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD
RELAX A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ALLOWING SOME OPPORTUNITY
FOR STRENGTHENING. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN IN
2-3 DAYS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT OR EVEN
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS THOUGHT TO BE A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AT 360/2.
THE EVENTUAL TRACK IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH
OF THE CYCLONE. A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO MOVE
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT
CURRENTLY EXISTS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. CONVERSELY...A STRONGER
AND DEEPER CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO MOVE WESTWARD...ALBEIT
SLOWLY...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES
ALONG 22N LATITUDE. SINCE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE OPTIMAL FOR STRENGTHENING...A VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
IS SHOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 15.0N 108.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.2N 108.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.4N 108.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 15.7N 107.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 16.5N 107.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 109.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,how is the scorecard between the Atlantic and the EPAC?.I like those graphics that you always do.

[Cyclenall]

HURAKAN,how is the scorecard between the Atlantic and the EPAC?.I like those graphics that you always do.

I was thinking the very same thing .

Very deep convection now with blacks on AVN. There was no choice, this is a TD no doubt. The movement is incredibly slow (2 mph is snail pace) so this will be not going anywhere too quickly.