INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

how is it moving now? West or NW or N?
Just curious. I'm not expecting anything from
this.

[Thunder44]

I can see a LLC becoming better defined near 16.7N 86.7W, on GHCC visible images, just north of the Honduras coast, and it it appears to be moving North or NW,

At 1pm EDT, Rotan, Honduras reporting a WSW wind sustained at 20mph, pressure at 1009mb:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

[Cyclone1]

Looking fairly decent. I'd be watching the NRL for a 16L.NONAME soon.

[HURAKAN]

Loops show a pretty well-develop LLC and convection over the system. It should be a depression soon.

[HURAKAN]

Cancun Radar:

[CrazyC83]

Which way is this moving? NE?

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Any thoughts on why the 12Z GFDL run titled it "TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L"??

edit: I just noticed the same for 98L: "TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L" ... I guess it's best to wait for the 18Z BAM suite and NRL...

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 18N87W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW
CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CUBA COAST ALONG 80W. STRONG SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS IN CELLS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N87.5W
AND FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST
OF 15N85W 20N77W.

[Thunder44]

Any thoughts on why the 12Z GFDL run titled it "TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L"??

It always says that for every run on the invests. It doesn't mean it will be upgraded to a TD.

[Sanibel]

The sun is really hot here in south Florida because of that dry air.

[fci]

The sun is really hot here in south Florida because of that dry air.

No sun here.
Considerable Cloudiness and a nice Easterly breeze.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is a small system and already moving ashore. I don't expect much out of it over the next 24-36 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142100
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENISULA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[wxman57]

Ha, ha, ha! We got 99L out of the 94L remnant. Maybe the two Lows will merge!

Now all we need is some convection and movement NE to relieve our drought.

And 94L was the former 92L after crossing Cuba. That's 3 invests for the same disturbance and none is likely to develop.

[fci]

I know that Invests are really an internal thing to The NHC and only followed by enthusiasts, however; I think that they should redo the numbering system so that a number is not repeated in a season.

This was discussed in the past but I think there is confusion when are talking about the 3 rd or 4th round with a 90L. Why not start with 100 and just go up each season?

Just my $.02.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

No TC likely out of this, but some of the enhanced moisture (per various AFDs) may get pulled into Louisiana ahead of Wednesday/Thursday mid-latitude system.

[Extremeweatherguy]

No TC likely out of this, but some of the enhanced moisture (per various AFDs) may get pulled into Louisiana ahead of Wednesday/Thursday mid-latitude system.

Houston seems to think moisture is coming here as well...

From the AFD:

LOOKING AT A DECENT SURGE OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE (FROM A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE)
TOWARD THE TX COAST. LIKE THE EARLIER RUNS...ETA/NAM KEEPS THE TX
COAST AS ITS TARGET WHILE GFS SHUNTS IT OFF TOWARD LA. WILL RAISE
POPS A BIT FOR WED IN RESPONSE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No TC likely out of this, but some of the enhanced moisture (per various AFDs) may get pulled into Louisiana ahead of Wednesday/Thursday mid-latitude system.

Houston seems to think moisture is coming here as well...

From the AFD:

LOOKING AT A DECENT SURGE OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE (FROM A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE)
TOWARD THE TX COAST. LIKE THE EARLIER RUNS...ETA/NAM KEEPS THE TX
COAST AS ITS TARGET WHILE GFS SHUNTS IT OFF TOWARD LA. WILL RAISE
POPS A BIT FOR WED IN RESPONSE.

I sprayed the lawn attachment weed killer on the lawn today, and have a bag of winterizing fertilizer in the garage. A good rain to moisten things up, and I will be out with the spreader.

[Cyclone1]

Ha, ha, ha! We got 99L out of the 94L remnant. Maybe the two Lows will merge!

Now all we need is some convection and movement NE to relieve our drought.

And 94L was the former 92L after crossing Cuba. That's 3 invests for the same disturbance and none is likely to develop.

And 92L was spawned by 90L.