INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z WRF says weak TC into Tamaulipas with a nice bit of rain into Texas.


Of course, it is the WRF.


Edit to correct significant whoops.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Lets hope that some of this moisture gets pulled up to the Southeast area around Atlanta Ga, Tennessee, North Carolina where the drought is so severe.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I might be wrong but the situation is so bad in the Atlanta area that they may only have about 120 days of good drinking water left.

[Sanibel]

Weak developing Low moving over Yucatan with hints of surface entrainment across the Gulf.

[BigA]

Might have a chance to develop once it gets into the gulf. Not before then, but I think that shear values in the southern gulf will be falling, so maybe once it gets there.

[ga_ben]

Thanks Willie. We are parched for sure. We've been hearing that the only thing that can break this epic drought is a slow moving tropical system. Problem is the chances keep going down as the season winds its way down. One would think that any system in the Caribbean would eventually be pulled up in our vicinity.

[wxman57]

Nothing really there. Doesn't really qualify for an invest. Just a broad very weak low on the coast with no convection and 5-10 kt winds:

[Blown Away]

Wxman57 do you think we will see a hurricane anywhere before the end of the season?

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150159
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE IT IS OVER LAND. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[Typhoon_Willie]

No problem ga_Ben the drought is pretty severe in my neck of the woods with our main source of drinking water (Lake Okeechobee) being about 3 feet or so below where it should be.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150904
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON OCT 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECASTER PASCH

[tailgater]

8:05 TWD
DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 24N WITH
THE AXIS ALONG 89W. UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE S GULF PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM THE CENTRAL
BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE YUCATAN THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF NEAR 21N87W
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO NEAR 24N80W
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
25N E OF 89W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND W CUBA. DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W ALONG
23N88W TO S MEXICO NEAR 19N93W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
HOWEVER...A STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER TEXAS IS DRAWING MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF TO OVER E TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN N OF 26N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THIS MORNING.
Lots of dry air to deal with for this disturbance, but rain chances increase from west to east across the Northern Gulf Coast and inland this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT 1006 MB LOW REMAINS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN JUST N
OF GUATEMALA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE OVER THE YUCATAN
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS ALONG
THE NE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 79W-85W AND
S OF 14N FROM 75W-79W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N71W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N OVER HISPANIOLA INTO
THE SW ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W.

[Sanibel]

I think it's back over water. Let's see if we get a strong convection burst. This has good surface entrainment.

[BigA]

Doesn't look bad, but does appear elongated. I can't believe that is moving westnorthwest though the gulf at this time of year.

[Derek Ortt]

they usually move SW in the BOC this time of year

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151527
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF NICARAGUA OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED THIS
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED AND THE CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME VERY POORLY DEFINED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM COULD STILL CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Nimbus]

That was quick...

The low level center should form on the SW end of that long line of convection right?

Thanks for helping out the blob watchers!

[wxman57]

That was quick...

The low level center should form on the SW end of that long line of convection right?

Thanks for helping out the blob watchers!

The southern end of the wave would be the place a low could form. But it is looking like this wave will just bring some rain to he northern Gulf coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Could be mostly inland in about 48 hours. Upper level winds don't appear to be favorable for development.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB alert- may or may not become a TC, but vorticity and moisture will be drawn up ahead of next mid-lat system, and help spark a most impressive October severe weather outbreak. He implies whatever center develops will parallel the Texas coast and move in in extreme East Texas/SW Louisiana.

If GFS is even close to right on shear, this would be in ballpark 20 m/s (~40 knot) shear when North of 25º, which would seem to suggest nothing would develop.

[RL3AO]

Wow. This thing started moving and is over water again.