Florida in trouble due to lack of tropical activity

[hial2]

As a former hydrologist in Broward County, I am quite sure SFWMD is managing the lake levels as best they can, both from a flood threat and water supply threat. As unpleasant as it may seem, hurricane season ends just before the dry season, so its always a close call on dumping water or keeping it.

Keep in mind that dumping water from Lake O takes some time. If a hurricane threat approaches, not only do they have to drop the Lake in many cases, they also have to drop the surrounding conservation areas (which have levees too) which use the same canals that Lake O do. So its not an easy call to make regardless.

It's not just the drought here..the main water source for Atlanta (a lake) is drying up..the Army Corps of Engineers release a million gallons of water from there daily that believe it or not affects those in Florida..that water "runs down hill"to keep up the streams that eventually feed into lake O..If that important source of water has to be shut down, the problems will increase 10 fold..

[Cookiely]

where can I find info on phase 4 or worse... I am having trouble finding info about anything greater than phase 3

Derek I tried searching various websites and found one reference to the severity of a stage four where it is against the law to put water in a child's water pistol. I couldn't find much on South West Water Management except that a phase is instuted when irreversible damage to the water source will ocurr if the water output is not reduced. I'm not sure how that would pertain to Lake O.

[TampaFl]

Because their hasn't been a tropical depression or storm that came across South Florida the Lake O level hasn't responded to what we should have seen by now.The normal lake level is 15ft, its currently 10ft. We are going into are dry season now until the end of May. At the beginning of the rainy season the lake was at an all time low of 8.91 ft. Unless we can get a tropical system out of the western Caribbean we will have water restriction of phase 4 or worse. They talked about Lake O on channel 10 last night and fci made a point and I know he was joking that well only be able to shower once or twice a week. I hope it doesn't come down to that point. I am -removed- a depression or storm up here now.

first of all there isnt anything called a phase 4. second of all there is way to much water being wasted so like other parts of florida i hope year round restrictions are put in place. there is no need to water lawns three times a week or put water on the table at restaurants even though people dont drink it, you get the point, lack of tropical activity isnt the problem, south floridians are.

Cookiely, see the above quote. Hope this helps.

Robert




There is a Phase IV restriction. The text of Phase IV - Critical begins on page 32. Let's hope we don't get to this.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/pls/portal/docs/PA ... 40E-21.PDF

[Toadstool]

I'm a little confused (or more than per usual) by what you said - still, in the past they only lowered the Lake by a reasonable 1 or 2 feet, if something was actually forecast to head this way.

I'd still have to say that the Katrina disaster put fear into them, then, someone (again, I don't know who - I'm tempted to say that JB fella) presented them with all sorts of dire scenairos of the same thing happening here, which lead the Board to approve the release of so much water - really, from my memory, they never did anything like that before, and, it was not at all necessary.

Now, we are paying for their lack of wisdom...

I agree. Just because 2005 was insane, doesn't mean we'll get a single hurricane in 2006 and 2007. They need to stop listening to Dr. Gray's hype and make sane decisions so we have a reliable water source. And the state of FL needs to fix the Everglades so they don't lose tons of fresh water everyday due to bad decisions in the past!

[tolakram]

Somewhat related.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21312383/

But little rain is in the forecast, and without it climatologists say the water source for more than 3 million people could run dry in just 90 days.

That dire prediction has some towns considering more drastic measures than mere lawn-watering bans, including mandatory rationing that would penalize homeowners and businesses if they don’t reduce water usage.

Ouch, and I thought it was dry up here.

[Frank2]

They need to stop listening to Dr. Gray's hype and make sane decisions so we have a reliable water source. And the state of FL needs to fix the Everglades so they don't lose tons of fresh water everyday due to bad decisions in the past!

As another poster said, it's not just down here, but, a regional drought, and, while I understand what the hydrologist said, again, in all my years down here (and that's quite a few), I never heard of the SFWMD releasing 3 or 4 feet of Lake water at a time...

I have to go back again to the "old days" of the early 1980's, when Dr. Gray was just starting to get national media attention by making a seasonal forecast - I was there when it happened, and, never had a good feeling with that idea. Those in charge at the NHC and HRD of that time felt the same way, since, none of them desired to become a part of that "crystal ball" type of forecasting, as I heard one of them refer to it, because they knew that there are so many variables that can affect a season's outcome (as we found out last year and this)...

I still believe the NHC policy should remain like that at the NSSL - they do their best when it comes to watches and warnings, and, while it's fine to improve on the lead time of an actual event, to attempt to make a forecast months in advance just leads to needless rumour, misinformation and fear, which then can lead to poor or misguided decisions by those in private industry or government...

Frank

[Sanibel]

They really messed up Sanibel when they flushed that water. The island sits at the end of the west drainage of Okeechobee from the Caloosahatchee River. It created too many nutrients and fresh water during summer which lead to a huge algae bloom and red tide that littered the beach with dead fish. It was nausiating. Unprecedented algae mats grew in the sanctuaries and preserves creating a dead layer where little food grew for the wildlife. Sanibel Island sued the Water Commission. Drifts of foamy smelly scum filled the inlets and canals. It was a disaster.

The drought is separate from the release. We are really low and dry going into dry season this year. This is the first time I've seen the wetlands fail to flood during the wet season.

[Aquawind]

Throw in the problems with the islands water treatment plant and Sanibel has some serious water issues for an island. Beaches closed in that exposed coastline for the island are not good.

I have a problem with any extended forecast if the insurance industry is using them and I do think the combination of hype from the 2005 season and the forecasters talk of increased activity for the next decade or so has cost us all. It's a forecast not concrete facts and to adjust the prices now could be total bunk like many of our 24 hour forecasts. The insurance industry will be taking the planet over unless we suffer these "forecasted" disasters. Once again these people have entire political and legal staff working everyday and finding every reason to only raise rates. They don't drop rates like gas prices unless forced and it would cost us plenty legally to try and make that happen. Throw in the GW unknowns and they have alot of manipulated numbers to prove they need to raise rates.

In reference to the SFWMD handling of water..those people are under alot of pressure and the process they use to make descisions is scrutinized constantly. They are doing the best they can and if they are using forecasts as I suspect..well they will bust to.

There is plenty of water..the issue is even distribution of purified water and the cost. Well..we do need to learn to conserve and use it wisely as well. Florida can handle flooding better then the GA area..hate to see the flooding disaster that will occur for them when they break the drought and raise those water levels 20 feet.