
Strong 500 mb feature with divergent winds from Southwest above Southerly low level flow.

6Z GFS a shade faster with system, but shows instability and good wind dynamics.

Moderator: S2k Moderators
BEYOND TUESDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES VERY DIFFICULT. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING GREAT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER AND FROM ONE
MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT. THERE IS SOME HINT OF AN INITIAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS
AT THAT TIME. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT
THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME...AND POSSIBLY LINGER BEYOND THIS TIME IF THE ECMWF IS
TO BE BELIEVED. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM....A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE INCLUDING ALL
POSSIBLE MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. STAY
TUNED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES APPARENT 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUE THIS
FORECAST. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS RUN FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHILE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT THAN ITS OWN FORECAST 24 HOURS PRIOR.
MEANWHILE...THE MOST RECENT 00Z RUN FROM THE GFS REVEALS A MID-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT FROM THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO...DESPITE
THE FACT THAT THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO RESEMBLES THE LATEST ECMWF RUN.
OVERALL...THESE DRASTIC VARIATIONS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH TIME
SUGGEST THAT PREDICTABILITY AT THE LARGE SCALE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THOUGH MODELS DO AGREE IN THE LARGE-SCALE MEAN THAT CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...DETERMINING WHICH DAYS THE SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS REMAINS DIFFICULT. THUS...WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SEVERE WEATHER AREAS THIS FORECAST...DESPITE THE FACT THAT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /INVOF DAYS 5-7...I.E. WED.
OCT. 17-FRI. OCT. 19/.
..GOSS.. 10/13/2007
Ed Mahmoud wrote:WRF model shows impressive shear and decent instability forecasts for area ICT down to DFW tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Paris, TX
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
SJT 15 ESE MAF 40 SSW LBB 30 ENE PVW 25 WNW LTS 30 WNW SPS 40 NNW
SJT.
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