INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

[xironman]

I don't know, it does not look sooo bad this morning. Adapted from the Holy Grail Scene 2 http://www.mwscomp.com/movies/grail/grail-02.htm

CART MASTER:
Bring out your dead!
CUSTOMER:
Here's one.
CART MASTER:
Ninepence.
99L:
I'm not dead!
CART MASTER:
What?
CUSTOMER:
Nothing. Here's your ninepence.
99L:
I'm not dead!
CART MASTER:
'Ere. He says he's not dead!
CUSTOMER:
Yes, he is.
99L:
I'm not!
CART MASTER:
He isn't?
CUSTOMER:
Well, he will be soon. He's very ill.
99L:
I'm getting better!
CUSTOMER:
No, you're not. You'll be stone dead in a moment.
99L:
I think I'll go for a walk.
CUSTOMER:
You're not fooling anyone, you know. Look. Isn't there something you can do?
99L: [singing]
I feel happy. I feel happy.
[whop]
CUSTOMER:
Ah, thanks very much.
CART MASTER:
Not at all. See you on Thursday.

[wxman57]

There is a weak surface low in the SW Gulf near 22.6N/94.6W, as can be seen on the image below. A trof axis extends NE from the low to the FL panhandle. Winds around the low are only 5-10 kts, so there's little or no low-level convergence. Upper level winds are unfavorable for development. Most likely the low and trof will move ashore into the northern Gulf coast between LA and the FL Panhandle today/tomorrow, bringing beneficial rain to the southeast.

[Sanibel]

I think that deeper convection by the north Gulf coast is from convergence between the front over CONUS and the SE winds on the east side of 99L. It does appear to be entrained to the Low so if it does deepen it should pull it in towards the center. That is why I was saying look for a N then NE turn where the system can allign itself with the convection. Best rain in town no matter how weak.

This is a perfect set-up for a sleeper no one saw coming.

[poof121]

How come the NHC says upper winds are becoming unfavorable when the shear intensity tendency says shear is decreasing?

[Sanibel]

Mexican desert air will probably keep it down:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[wxman57]

How come the NHC says upper winds are becoming unfavorable when the shear intensity tendency says shear is decreasing?

Both can be true. The farther north it moves, the greater the shear. Even if shear was increasing across the northern Gulf, it's still stronger than across the southern Gulf. Instead of looking at those shear maps, look at what's actually happening - run a long-term water vapor satellite loop.

[poof121]

How come the NHC says upper winds are becoming unfavorable when the shear intensity tendency says shear is decreasing?

Both can be true. The farther north it moves, the greater the shear. Even if shear was increasing across the northern Gulf, it's still stronger than across the southern Gulf. Instead of looking at those shear maps, look at what's actually happening - run a long-term water vapor satellite loop.

Thanks, I didn't think about that.

How fast is the low moving anyway? It's kinda hard to make out on the visible imagery.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

747
NOUS42 KNHC 161430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 16 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
         TCPOD NUMBER.....07-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. SUSPECT AREA   GULF OF MEXICO
   FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70         FLIGHT TWO-- TEAL 71
   A. 17/1800Z                  A. 18/0600Z
   B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST        B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
   C. 17/1600Z                  C. 18/0330Z
   D. 26.0N AND 95W             D. 28.0N AND 95W
   E. 17/1700Z-2300Z            E. 18/0500-1100Z
   F. SFC TO 10,000FT           F. SFC TO 10,000FT

   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
   DEVELOPS.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
                       WVW

[Thunder44]

589
ABNT20 KNHC 161508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TODAY OR
TOMORROW BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

They have scheduled flights into this system to begin flying tomorrow afternoon, if necessary:

Code: Select all

[b]747
NOUS42 KNHC 161430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 16 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
         TCPOD NUMBER.....07-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. SUSPECT AREA   GULF OF MEXICO
   FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70         FLIGHT TWO-- TEAL 71
   A. 17/1800Z                  A. 18/0600Z
   B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST        B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
   C. 17/1600Z                  C. 18/0330Z
   D. 26.0N AND 95W             D. 28.0N AND 95W
   E. 17/1700Z-2300Z            E. 18/0500-1100Z
   F. SFC TO 10,000FT           F. SFC TO 10,000FT

   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
   DEVELOPS.[/b]

[Evil Jeremy]

Ok. 6 hours ago the NHC was killing this system, saying that nothing would form at all, and now, they are saying that something could form later today? Whatever.

[Ivanhater]

[Stormcenter]

Well looking at the latest satellite loop in sure looks
like 99L is trying to get better organized. The conditions
currently don't look as hostile as yesterday.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

Nothing like having a huge plume of rain over water while all the areas around it are in a bad drought.

[Thunder44]

Well looking at the latest satellite loop in sure looks
like 99L is trying to get better organized. The conditions
currently don't look as hostile as yesterday.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

It looks like most of the thunderstorms are forming along and east of the trof axis. It's going to have hard time wrapping around those storms around the center, with all the shear and dry air coming in from west and SW.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Very good news for those areas that are in deficit of rainfall this year.

The GFS late last week was showing a piece of vorticity at 850 mb, along with some rain, coming out of the BoC and heading towards the Redneck Riviera.

[Ivanhater]

What exatly is the "Redneck Riviera"?

[vbhoutex]

99L has about 12 hours max to do anything before it gets into a very undesirable environment closer to the coast as it heads NW and/or N. Local ocm said it has a "chance" at becoming a TD or TS within the 12 hour timeframe. However if it does when it gets closer to the coast it will get torn apart.

That huge blob of rain to the NE of 99L is headed inland, which is good, but most of it won't make it up into the other areas that really need it too, besides the FL panhandle. At least some areas will get some benefit though.

[lrak]

What exatly is the "Redneck Riviera"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerald_Coast

[Ed Mahmoud]

What exatly is the "Redneck Riviera"?

I drink beer and go to NASCAR races. Its all good.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting...I wasnt aware we had anymore rednecks then any other part of the southeast