Tropical Depression Kiko in EPac

[HURAKAN]

Kiki completely exposed.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

 161826
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO (EP152007) 20071016 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        071016  1800   071017  0600   071017  1800   071018  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.1N 108.1W   14.6N 107.2W   15.3N 106.5W   16.2N 106.2W
BAMD    14.1N 108.1W   14.2N 108.7W   14.3N 109.6W   14.5N 110.6W
BAMM    14.1N 108.1W   14.4N 107.7W   15.0N 107.7W   15.6N 108.1W
LBAR    14.1N 108.1W   14.2N 108.1W   14.7N 108.7W   15.4N 109.8W
SHIP        30KTS          30KTS          33KTS          34KTS
DSHP        30KTS          30KTS          33KTS          34KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        071018  1800   071019  1800   071020  1800   071021  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.7N 106.3W   17.5N 106.9W   18.0N 109.1W   17.3N 111.2W
BAMD    14.8N 111.7W   15.0N 113.2W   14.6N 113.9W   13.2N 115.0W
BAMM    16.2N 108.6W   16.5N 109.6W   16.6N 110.8W   15.4N 111.7W
LBAR    15.9N 110.8W   17.2N 113.0W   18.8N 114.6W   20.6N 115.9W
SHIP        35KTS          38KTS          46KTS          48KTS
DSHP        35KTS          38KTS          46KTS          48KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.1N LONCUR = 108.1W DIRCUR = 125DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 = 108.9W DIRM12 = 129DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  14.8N LONM24 = 108.9W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


Winds down to 30 kts.

[RL3AO]

I guess that would that be a proper way to end this season with a storm with an operational ace of .1225.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 162035
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING EARLIER TODAY...THE CENTER
BECAME FAR REMOVED FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT KIKO HAS
WEAKENED TO A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING COULD STILL OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THEREAFTER...AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE STEERED
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A TURN
TO THE LEFT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT KIKO IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 180 N MI IN
FIVE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 14.1N 108.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.1N 108.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 14.5N 107.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 108.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 109.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 17.0N 109.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WWWW
Only 6 hours being a storm? Even the EPAC doers not get systems going for much time.

[RL3AO]

Only 6 hours being a storm?

Sounds like a proper ending to the second least active season on record.

[chadtm80]

[Cyclenall]

A massive burst of deep convection is attempting to cover the exposed LLC.

[gilbert88]

Kiko, on his way out.

(What a silly name.)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0042 UTC WED OCT 17 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO (EP152007) 20071017 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071017 0000 071017 1200 071018 0000 071018 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 107.6W 14.7N 106.5W 15.5N 105.7W 16.2N 105.2W
BAMD 14.0N 107.6W 14.3N 108.1W 14.6N 109.0W 15.0N 110.2W
BAMM 14.0N 107.6W 14.5N 107.2W 15.2N 107.2W 15.8N 107.6W
LBAR 14.0N 107.6W 14.2N 107.6W 15.0N 108.3W 15.6N 109.4W
SHIP 30KTS 28KTS 27KTS 28KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071019 0000 071020 0000 071021 0000 071022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 105.0W 17.7N 106.0W 18.8N 108.8W 18.2N 112.5W
BAMD 15.2N 111.2W 15.2N 112.5W 14.5N 113.0W 13.0N 114.5W
BAMM 16.2N 107.9W 16.6N 108.7W 16.9N 109.9W 15.7N 111.8W
LBAR 16.3N 110.4W 17.3N 112.6W 18.5N 113.6W 20.9N 115.2W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 107.6W DIRCUR = 110DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 108.4W DIRM12 = 109DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 108.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Kiko, on his way out.

(What a silly name.)

"Kiko" is one of the best names there is for a storm.

- Compact
- Easy to pronounce

Names are given to storms not as a priviledge but as a way to remember them better in the future.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 170241
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

KIKO CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES...
AS ITS CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY...AS DOES AN AMSU PASS FROM 2039Z. HOWEVER...A HIGH-RES
ASCAT PASS FROM 1716Z INDICATED NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT. AS THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY
SINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT
30 KT.

KIKO IS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KT DUE TO THE
COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A LARGE MONSOONAL TROUGH...IN WHICH KIKO IS
EMBEDDED...AND A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AS
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED AND KIKO SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS BY TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GFS...UKMET...HWRF...AND GFDL.

WHILE THE SSTS REMAIN A RATHER TOASTY 29C UNDERNEATH KIKO FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 KT OR MORE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AND
THE DECAY-SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPOND TO
THIS BY INTENSIFYING KIKO TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SHEAR WILL WIN OUT AND KIKO
COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE THE DECREASED SHEAR KICKS IN...AS
INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.0N 107.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.1N 107.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 106.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 14.9N 106.9W 35 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 107.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 16.2N 107.6W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 17.0N 108.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

Kiko:

[gilbert88]

Well, it IS more practical than Gabrielle, Georgette or Henriette (possibly the worst name... virtually unpronounceable)... I still find Kiko quite funny...

And this particular Kiko won't be very memorable...

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170831
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2007

ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT EASY TO FIND...IT APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED BACK UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0136
UTC SHOWED SOME 30 KT WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY SHOWERS...SO IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
IN AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION. THEREFORE KIKO IS BEING UPGRADED
BACK TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.

A RECENT AMSU-B OVERPASS AND AN EARLIER SSM/I PASS INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER HAS EDGED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 070/2. THE STEERING
CURRENT REMAINS ILL-DEFINED. KIKO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND APPEARS TO BE EXECUTING A COUNTERCLOCKWISE
LOOP AT THIS TIME. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN A WELL-DEFINED
STEERING MECHANISM IN THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS VERY WEAKLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT IS PREDICTED
TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED
TO THE EAST ON THIS CYCLE. ACCORDINGLY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT NOT
AS FAR EAST AND NORTH AS THE GUNA CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

THE SHAPE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND HIGH-CLOUD MOTIONS
INDICATE THAT STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT KIKO. THE
SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS WIND FORECAST...SHOWS A RELAXATION OF
THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE
TO THE SHIPS PREDICTION AND ALSO NOT FAR FROM THE GFDI FORECAST
EXCEPT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN THE LATTER MODEL SHOWS
MORE STRENGTHENING.

THE 12-FT SEAS RADII OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WERE ESTIMATED
FROM AN OBSERVATION FROM A NOAA SHIP WITH CALL SIGN WTEJ.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.2N 107.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.4N 107.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 14.8N 106.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 15.2N 106.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 15.7N 106.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 16.7N 106.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 107.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171447
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KIKO IS VERY HARD TO FIND THIS MORNING.
FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES ALONG WITH RECENT AMSU AND QUIKSCAT DATA
SHOW THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST.
THE ADVISORY POSITION IS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ELONGATION NEAR
THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...ALTHOUGH THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT
HINT THAT THE ACTUAL CENTER MAY BE FARTHER TO THE EAST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE
QUIKSCAT DATA...WHILE HAVING RAIN CONTAMINATION PROBLEMS...SUGGESTS
AN INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 35 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT
AT 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 045/4. KIKO IS SOUTH OF A
BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE ON FORECASTING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO BY 72 HR AS THE U.S. TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW KIKO TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.
AFTER 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE WEAKENS AGAIN AS A SECOND
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT THE SECOND TROUGH WILL DO TO
KIKO. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEP ENOUGH TROUGH TO CAUSE KIKO TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS...THE BAM MODELS...AND
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SHOW KIKO MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.
THE UKMET AND NOGAPS CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER.
IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.

KIKO CONTINUES UNDER ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AFTER 24
HR...WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST BEYOND
THAT TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...AND THE
SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF ALL FORECAST KIKO TO REACH 55-60 KT BY 120
HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL.

SOME RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER...AND CHANGES IN THE FORECAST
TRACK...MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.8N 106.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.2N 106.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 106.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.1N 106.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 16.7N 106.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 17.5N 107.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 18.5N 108.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Kiko may become a hurricane after all.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 171856
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1856 UTC WED OCT 17 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO (EP152007) 20071017 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        071017  1800   071018  0600   071018  1800   071019  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.5N 105.6W   15.2N 104.7W   15.6N 104.0W   16.1N 103.4W
BAMD    14.5N 105.6W   14.9N 106.5W   15.2N 107.2W   15.1N 107.7W
BAMM    14.5N 105.6W   15.1N 105.4W   15.6N 105.4W   15.8N 105.2W
LBAR    14.5N 105.6W   15.1N 105.3W   16.0N 105.5W   16.8N 105.9W
SHIP        35KTS          34KTS          36KTS          38KTS
DSHP        35KTS          34KTS          36KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        071019  1800   071020  1800   071021  1800   071022  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.2N 103.3W   16.5N 104.3W   17.0N 104.7W   17.1N 106.2W
BAMD    15.0N 108.1W   15.2N 108.3W   15.6N 108.8W   15.5N 110.6W
BAMM    15.8N 105.3W   16.2N 106.1W   16.7N 106.4W   16.7N 107.8W
LBAR    17.5N 106.1W   19.3N 106.8W   23.6N 106.7W   27.2N 104.3W
SHIP        44KTS          53KTS          59KTS          62KTS
DSHP        44KTS          53KTS          59KTS          62KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.5N LONCUR = 105.6W DIRCUR =  80DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  14.3N LONM12 = 107.1W DIRM12 =  71DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  14.1N LONM24 = 108.0W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =   75NM RD34SW =   90NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


Finnally Kiko is starting to move a little,from stationary to 6 kts.

[HurricaneRobert]

Kiko's a fighter

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 172030
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KIKO HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ELONGATED FROM
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE WEST BY 25 KT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVERALL...THE
SYSTEM GIVES THE IMPRESSION OF BEING A SMALL LOW EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ OR MONSOON TROUGH. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT BASED ON THE RAGGED APPEARANCE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER
EAST THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...SO THE INITIAL POSITION IS A
RE-LOCATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 080/6.
KIKO IS SOUTH OF A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED
BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES....AND
MUCH OF THE CURRENT MOTION MAY BE DUE TO LOW-LEVEL STEERING.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO BY 72 HR AS THE U.S. TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. IN
THEORY...THIS SHOULD STOP THE CURRENT MOTION AND ALLOW KIKO TO TURN
GENERALLY NORTHWARD. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHWARD TURN IN
12 HR...THE BAMS AND ECMWF CONTINUE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT FOR 36 HR
OR MORE. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK CALLS FOR 12 MORE HR OF EASTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION. AFTER 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE WEAKENS AS A
SECOND DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT ON WHAT THE SECOND TROUGH WILL DO
TO KIKO. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS HAVE A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER
WEST...AND BRING KIKO NEAR OR OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE GFS AND
THE UKMET HAVE THE TROUGH FARTHER EAST AND RIDGING NORTHWEST OF
KIKO...AND TURN THE STORM WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT...THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION. IT LIES WELL EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WEST OF THE
ECMWF.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AFTER 24
HR...WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST BEYOND
THAT TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE SYSTEM
DOESN'T LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE ITCZ BEFORE THEN. THE SHIPS AND
GFDL MODELS CALL FOR A 50-60 KT INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE HWRF CALLS FOR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 14.6N 105.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 14.9N 104.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 104.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.1N 104.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 18.5N 106.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 19.0N 106.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WWWW



Mexico should watch Kiko just in case it gets more closer than expected.

[chadtm80]

Kiko Finaly on the move


http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... page&size=

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 180044
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC THU OCT 18 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO (EP152007) 20071018 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        071018  0000   071018  1200   071019  0000   071019  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.7N 104.9W   15.5N 103.9W   16.4N 103.3W   17.0N 103.0W
BAMD    14.7N 104.9W   15.5N 105.4W   16.3N 105.7W   16.9N 106.0W
BAMM    14.7N 104.9W   15.8N 104.6W   16.8N 104.4W   17.4N 104.5W
LBAR    14.7N 104.9W   15.5N 104.4W   16.5N 104.3W   17.5N 104.1W
SHIP        35KTS          37KTS          42KTS          45KTS
DSHP        35KTS          37KTS          42KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        071020  0000   071021  0000   071022  0000   071023  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.4N 103.7W   18.5N 106.0W   19.1N 108.0W   18.9N 111.5W
BAMD    17.5N 106.6W   19.2N 108.2W   20.7N 109.5W   21.8N 113.5W
BAMM    17.9N 105.3W   19.5N 107.6W   20.2N 109.6W   20.1N 113.9W
LBAR    18.5N 104.0W   21.7N 104.4W   25.7N 102.4W   30.2N  95.3W
SHIP        52KTS          60KTS          63KTS          64KTS
DSHP        52KTS          60KTS          63KTS          64KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.7N LONCUR = 104.9W DIRCUR =  70DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 = 106.4W DIRM12 =  82DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  14.0N LONM24 = 107.6W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =   75NM RD34SW =   90NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN