Bottom Line for 2007

'CaneFreak · #1 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:00 am

Now that the hurricane season is really starting to wind down, we the meteorological community now have to assess how well or how poor the forecasts for this season were for the 2007 season. Clearly, things did not pan out for the forecasts this year once again. Why? Well, the La Nina conditions simply set in too little too late this year. As others have said numerous times, after Dean and Felix occurred this season, things literally shut down in terms of the favorable conditions in the open waters of the Atlantic. So, this raises new questions to ponder for research: what atmospheric changes take place after back to back category 5 hurricanes strike virtually the same given location twice in a season? Even in 2005, no given MAJOR hurricane hit the same location twice within a couple of weeks time. So, its time to do some research all you degreed meteorologists out there!!!!

Aquawind · #2 Postby **Aquawind** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:15 am

Bottom Line.. We have a loooonggg way to go in weather forecasting.. We have many many other professions involved and supporting Meteorology and the data they use. Frankly the problem has little to do with Degreed Meteorologists..

Sanibel · #3 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:27 am

Simple. Unexpected upper winds and shear trump high Atlantic oscillation and SST predictions.

#4 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 12:00 pm

Aquawind wrote:Bottom Line.. We have a loooonggg way to go in weather forecasting.. We have many many other professions involved and supporting Meteorology and the data they use. Frankly the problem has little to do with Degreed Meteorologists..

That is the bottom line. It doesn't matter how you paint it or how juge the advances have been over the last 50 years(and they have been huge thanks to technology)the bottom line is :uarrow:

#5 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 2:54 pm

We as a weather community are just starting to make confident 3 day forecasts. The NHC just started issuing 5 day "forecasts" a few years ago. I'm not sure why people take 4-6 week forecasts seriously, not to mention 4-6 month ones. Just my 2 cents.

Cyclone1 · #6 Postby **Cyclone1** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:38 pm

Well, the original prediction for the season was 17 storms, lowered to 14 later on. We, so far, have had 13 (pending post season on TD-10 and 95L). I'd have to say they did a decent job this year. And plus, the season's not over yet.

Category 5 · #7 Postby **Category 5** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:21 pm

Last I checked, the season is still going. I think we need to wait until the end of the season first. :wink:

Bottom Line for 2007

Bottom Line for 2007

Re: Bottom Line for 2007

Re:

Re: Bottom Line for 2007

Who is online