Hurricane Season Coming to an End!

[alienstorm]

Well, it certainly looks like the 2007 season is now shutting down. Global model continue showing no cyclone geneses for the next 2 weeks even with the MJO in it is heighten stage.

In addition, there is nothing out there that shows any potential development. What we do have is a massive ULL in the Central Caribbean causing disruptive shear.

[Sanibel]

For all we know this pattern will cease and a big juicy Mitch will form in the SW Caribbean. I never make absolute predictions - though 2007 seems to be a permanent negative feature this year.

[boca]

I agree this year is over. When it comes to El Nino or La Nina I'm taking those predictions with a grain of salt. The way the season has shut down seems like its shear induced just like El Nino. So much for the predictions. I'll wait until June 2008 when its actually here before I make judgement on the season. I'm not getting all hyped on the pre season predictions from all the avaliable agentcies again come April. No offense to DR Gray and all the other prediction centers, I'll just be one of the few that won't listen to early predictions anymore.

[StormWarning1]

In hindsight, the season was only favorable for hurricane activity for about 3 weeks, from the time Dean formed until Felix made landfall. Everything else struggled with the usual culprits that inhibit intensification. Most of those systems were put out of their misery after a couple days.
Even Humberto and Lorenzo barely made it to hurricane status before being kicked off the field.

[Sanibel]

I think the Caribbean had a lot to do with that 3 week window of "favorability". This was a matter of the SST's being able to break the threshold of unfavorability by making already started systems stronger than the surrounding negativity. Storms outside the Caribbean could not beat conditions.

[Aquawind]

Why is this thread here and with exclimations. 6 weeks to go and the GFS has little clue further than a few days out. Nothing is coming to an end.. Assumptions otherwise are rediculious and dangerous..this is weather..

[Steve H.]

I agree aquawind. It ain't over 'til its over. I still expect something to come out of the CAribbean and threaten the CONUS. There is a lot of potential still out there. Models aren't good more than a week out, and this time of year they get less accurate in the tropics due to climatology. NOGAPS is still showing development in the western Caribbean and this is where the model performs better.

[tolakram]

Shear has been near normal this year, not above normal. It was expected to be below normal with La Nina, but it appears the best thing a La Nina event can predict is lack of above normal shear, not below normal shear. We need more observations to prove a pattern, working on too little data if you ask me.

But the season isn't over until Nov 30th, saying otherwise is silly.

Outlook for remainder of year from Jeff Masters:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200710

[Frank2]

I also do not (or try not to) pay any attention to those long-term predictions - I never thought it a good idea, and, even less now, when the many dire predicitons for two years running ended up being much different in reality...

Personally, I think it best that those responsible for forecasting (whether government, academic or private institutions) should pay more attention to the task at hand, and, not try to forecast what will happen 3, 6 or 9 months into the future, or, as the Bible says, "Do not worry about tomorrow...each day has enough trouble of it's own" (Matthew 6)...

Frank

[Category 5]

The global models predicted this thread 120 hours out.

It's so predictable. Nothing happens for about a week and everybody cancels the season. Even back in August and September. If you want 25-30 storms try tracking the WPAC because you're not getting it here. We're in a La Nina right now. I seem to recall quite a few late season La Nina Storms. Hazel, Joan, Mitch, and Lenny. Only a fool lets his guard down during a Hurricane season.

[Cyclone1]

The global models predicted this thread 120 hours out.

It's so predictable. Nothing happens for about a week and everybody cancels the season. Even back in August and September. If you want 25-30 storms try tracking the WPAC because you're not getting it here. We're in a La Nina right now. I seem to recall quite a few late season La Nina Storms. Hazel, Joan, Mitch, and Lenny. Only a fool lets his guard down during a Hurricane season.

Absolutely, 100% COULD NOT agree more.

It is NOT over until December, folks.

[Gustywind]

Why is this thread here and with exclimations. 6 weeks to go and the GFS has little clue further than a few days out. Nothing is coming to an end.. Assumptions otherwise are rediculious and dangerous..this is weather..

Absolutely Aquawind agree with you...and sometimes very stupid awesome, without any humility towards Mother
Nature ...when i read some replys .
Excuse me, but that's a little too strong for me, in my humble opinion we should not let our guard down that's very early for that... Whereas, i want to emphasize on past at this period...for those who live in the islands we had not forgot hurricane José in October 20th 1999 in my island of Guadeloupe and particulary for the Northern Leewards hitting our islands...and unhopefuly one month after, in late November versatile dangerous and unpredictable, tenacious cat 4 Lenny!!!...bringing catastrophic flooding in the island during 3 days and particulary this black and sad friday 19th november... paralysing the majority of the residents because of the underestimation track , intensity of Lenny... with a special upper pattern blocking the system on the Northern Leewards islands. Moreover, Meteo France had not put any alert for this possibility of uncredible scenario...very confident of a N/E track givent the lastest forecasts...but Lenny prefered moving s/e passing close to Guadeloupe as TS status...
I remember on the radio all these parents trying to take theirs childrens in school during the catastrophic floodings, too long to said ....and i don't speak about the huge an unusual swell on the caribbean side of the island with higher waves observed about 5, 6 and maybe 7 meters in some locations!!!
Sad to to say , but we experienced incredible, amazing records in terms of precipitations in some locations, and for the info if my head doesn't deceiving me ...we experienced more than 238 millimeters in the weather station of Guadeloupe le Raizet in only 12 hours, and much more in some locations ...due to the stationnarity of the system (
As a conclusion , and as far i'm concerned when i read this type of replys speaking about a early endend season, i'm very doubtful , and even shocked...Mother nature has always surprises in stores (if this trend without any cane continues i will be glad ), she can refire at any time, we're just points on this earth... i'm thinking about the islands and thus any contry on this earth.
Given that my eyes have already seen on a tropical season, hope that we can have a more respectful and wide view of Mother nature and by extension life, stay safe everbody and keep the faith... nice regards Gustywind

[DanKellFla]

I have a myopic view of the season. If I don't have to put up my storm panels, that is a good season for me. At this point, I have a "feeling" that the season is over as far as South Florida is concerned. (That and $3 will get me a cup of coffee) I have nothing to back that up other than living down here since 1985. But, anything is possible. October storms, November storms...etc....

[HURRICANE ILM]

DON'T COUNT THE SEASON OVER YET !!!!! REMEMBER WILMA !!!! BACK IN 2005 WE HAD STORMS GOING UNTIL AFTER NEW YEARS !!!!

[Category 5]

REMEMBER WILMA !!!!

Apperently they don't

[Brent]

I said this 2 weeks ago.

[StormWarning1]

DON'T COUNT THE SEASON OVER YET !!!!! REMEMBER WILMA !!!! BACK IN 2005 WE HAD STORMS GOING UNTIL AFTER NEW YEARS !!!!

This is not 2005, it is 2007, much different setup. Their is a reason why most of the storms of 2007 are dead after two days.

[Category 5]

DON'T COUNT THE SEASON OVER YET !!!!! REMEMBER WILMA !!!! BACK IN 2005 WE HAD STORMS GOING UNTIL AFTER NEW YEARS !!!!

This is not 2005, it is 2007, much different setup. Their is a reason why most of the storms of 2007 are dead after two days.

Patterns can change in the blink of an eye.

[Brent]

DON'T COUNT THE SEASON OVER YET !!!!! REMEMBER WILMA !!!! BACK IN 2005 WE HAD STORMS GOING UNTIL AFTER NEW YEARS !!!!

This is not 2005, it is 2007, much different setup. Their is a reason why most of the storms of 2007 are dead after two days.

[Ptarmigan]

Wouldn't write it off so fast. We got until November 30th. However, I do with it ended now.