Convection in the... Mediterranean?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a tropical storm has formed based on eurosat, near 33.5/14.8 west. It is just off the coast, quickscat shows 40 knot winds, but the LLC is so close to the coast the westly winds are just inland. Kind of like Felix as it moved by south America.

[Category 5]

Looks like a tropical storm has formed based on eurosat, near 33.5/14.8 west. It is just off the coast, quickscat shows 40 knot winds, but the LLC is so close to the coast the westly winds are just inland. Kind of like Felix as it moved by south America.

Where is this quikscat image?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Image ... x.htm?l=en

Press the button to the area and run a loop. System looks good.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds37.png

I would use the quickscat in this area and how close it is to the coast. For only the winds.

[HURAKAN]

Water Vapor images show an ULL.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it has a ULL over top of it, but that is to make for a half way favorable shear enviroment.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What ever it was, it has made landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking very good this morning. I would place the center of it near 33 north/15.5 east...Would not suprize me if this gets interesting over the next day.

[Coredesat]

None of the imagery I can find shows anything that looks like a tropical system, only disorganized convection. NRL's surface analyses (wind and pressure) doesn't indicate a low or closed circulation in this area.

http://en.allmetsat.com/images/meteosat ... fcwind.php

[HenkL]

Some models project a rapid cyclogenesis by Friday in the southern Mediterranean, in connection with the left exit of the jetstream. Nothing tropical, but it will bring some rough weather.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The latest satellite and FSU data shows it as a cyclone. Why, because you have the CMC,Gfs,NGP models all showing a mild warm core, yes its not the best science, but its all we have to go by. Also satellite shows convection right over the LLC/low pressure area. Any time you get convection you get heat released, and which case you get a warmer area of air that would not be there if it was not for it. Also shear levels are not to high, and sst's around 75f under it. So there is a case to be made. Now tell me with data and facts why it does not work? I'm a reasonable person and care a lot about that. Also based on euro/met office maps there is no front; at least the one I looked at before going to sleep last night.

[Coredesat]

The latest satellite and FSU data shows it as a cyclone. Why, because you have the CMC,Gfs,NGP models all showing a mild warm core, yes its not the best science, but its all we have to go by. Also satellite shows convection right over the LLC/low pressure area. Any time you get convection you get heat released, and which case you get a warmer area of air that would not be there if it was not for it. Also shear levels are not to high, and sst's around 75f under it. So there is a case to be made. Now tell me with data and facts why it does not work? I'm a reasonable person and care a lot about that. Also based on euro/met office maps there is no front; at least the one I looked at before going to sleep last night.

I didn't say there was a front. If there's any low pressure area here at all, it's very broad.



The wind data does not show a closed circulation here. At most, it is a weak surface trough that happens to be in an area of air unstable enough for convection to fire.

This (what you're looking at, that is) is a different area of convection from the one Cyclone1 mentioned in the start of the thread. The original closed low made landfall and dissipated.

[HURAKAN]

Meteosat 4km VIS/IR2 Floater
(CIRA Personnel Only)



Something interesting must be occurring here when they have a floater on it!!!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[Cyclone1]

Uhh... wow.

We have a thing here.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas37.png

3/4th closed LLC. In I would not bet my home that there is not a westly wind. Why because I've seen it miss the westly wind on full scale hurricanes if they are this close to the coast. Some 50 knot winds on the quickscat. Also we do have some northwestly winds on the southeast side. So there is some.

[littlevince]

06:00z

[Chacor]

PART 1
TTT GALE WARNING 17-10-2007 / 0745 UTC
VALID FROM 171000 UTC UP TO 171600 UTC

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURES 1026 OVER BALKANS TO LOW 1012 OVER
NORTH LIBYA AFFECTING:

SIDRA NORTH OF 32.00 WITH EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR GALE 7 LOCALLY GALE 8

MELITA AND GABES WITH EAST NORTHEAST NEAR GALE 7 LOCALLY GALE 8

[HURAKAN]

Loop:

[HURAKAN]

[Cryomaniac]

This should be an INVEST in my opinion. Not gonna ask for Recon though