Central Atlantic former mega-blob

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RL3AO
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Central Atlantic former mega-blob

#1 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 16, 2007 6:36 pm

Image
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS IT NOW LIES IN AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT JUST E OF THE BASE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE
THE INCREASE IN ACTIVITY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS NOT
IMPROVED MUCH AS IT REMAINS STRETCHED TO THE NE BY STRONG UPPER
SWLY WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-14N
BETWEEN 28W-41W.
Last edited by RL3AO on Thu Oct 18, 2007 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Central Atlantic mega-blob

#2 Postby alan1961 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 6:50 pm

I think people have given up on "promising" blobs RL, admittedly it does look threatening but with this windshear around chances are it will go the same way as all the other potentials. :wink:
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#3 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 16, 2007 6:52 pm

You are right. I would have ignored it but QS showed a 40-45kt wind barb...probably BS. It pretty much has no chance, but weirder things have happened.
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#4 Postby Cyclone1 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:38 pm

"mega-blob"

XD

That is CERTAINLY a mega blob. HUGE!!

Maybe... this'll have a chance. It's definitely unstable enough. Meh...
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Re: Central Atlantic mega-blob

#5 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:53 pm

Ok folks....lets have a little taste of reality here....this is nothing more than a mix of the trade winds and upper level diffluence. It will be gone basically by tomorrow.
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Re: Central Atlantic mega-blob

#6 Postby Cyclone1 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:58 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:Ok folks....lets have a little taste of reality here....this is nothing more than a mix of the trade winds and upper level diffluence. It will be gone basically by tomorrow.

But... it's real purdy.

Yeah, just a flare up of the ITCZ enhanced by that ULL to the north.

Nothing out of it, but if it weren't mentioned on Storm2k, we wouldn't be good storm watchers now would we? :wink:
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#7 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:59 pm

I would post a link to the CIMSS Imagery but everyone knows that site by heart now and data was incomplete as of last check.
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Re: Central Atlantic mega-blob

#8 Postby Category 5 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:00 pm

Is it a massive blob? Yes.

Is it organized? No.
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#9 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:09 pm

Wow that is one huge blob
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Re: Central Atlantic mega-blob

#10 Postby alan1961 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:19 pm

just imagine that in 2005!!!..ah well..we can dream :lol:
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:47 pm

Image
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Re: Central Atlantic mega-blob

#12 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 16, 2007 9:40 pm

Horrifically large wave!

The Nina monster last breath of 2007!
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Re: Central Atlantic mega-blob

#13 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:44 pm

Talk about a huge blob! :grrr: Think of all the rain it could produce if it was over land. Some areas could really use it.
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#14 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:11 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170624
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N36W TO 13N42W TO 8N47W. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE ARE BEING STRETCHED AND MOVED NORTHEASTWARD. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N40W 9N41W
11N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A LARGE SWATH OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSFROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 26W AND 29W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.
:wink:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Very amazing blob for sure:eek: , whereas Olympics Games of shear in vicinity for this wave :cheesy:...you need some preparation to pass these hurdles of shear for a gold medal :eek: :double: :lol: but who knows if shear relaxes a bit it has a slim window to see some slight organization, we will see :cheesy: 8-)
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#15 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:16 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N36W TO 13N42W TO
8N47W. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE ARE BEING
STRETCHED AND MOVED NORTHEASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN A LARGE SWATH OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W.
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Re: Central Atlantic mega-blob

#16 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:15 am

Shear induced wave already drying up.
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#17 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 17, 2007 1:08 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
A RECENT ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE AXIS WELL WHICH LINES UP NICELY
WITH THE ANALYZED POSITION...EXCEPT THE N PORTION WHICH SHOULD
BE TILT TO THE E. STRONG SWLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT STRETCHING CLOUDINESS WELL TO THE NE OF THE WAVE. DEEP CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ...ESPECIALLY IN DIFFLUENT ZONES ALOFT.
:cheesy: Olympic Games of shear continue in vicinity of this wave...you need some preparation to pass seriously these hurdles of shear for a gold medal, and once again awesome, awfull westerlies are dominating the area :eek: if i were that wave i would put a white flag, very amazing lol :lol: :D :cheesy:... :eek:
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#18 Postby Gustywind » Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:32 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE OVERNIGHT IR-IMAGERY HELPED IN ORDER TO PLACE THIS WAVE...WHICH ACTUALLY IS A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE 18/0000 UTC POSITION. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM A 24N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N40W TO 13N46W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG 12N30W 24N30W
BEYOND 32N29W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rgb.jpg
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
:cheesy: :wink: 8-)
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Re: Central Atlantic mega-blob

#19 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:12 am

The wave is running into incredible wind shear as it passes an upper-level trof. Development chances somewhere less than zero east of the Caribbean now.
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Re: Central Atlantic mega-blob

#20 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 18, 2007 12:03 pm

Could CV be making one last gasp? Weak spin between 35-40W with this wave.
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