Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

[CrazyC83]

First warning issued:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC065-375-381-170530-
/O.NEW.KAMA.SV.W.0290.071017T0428Z-071017T0530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1128 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CARSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
POTTER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
NORTH CENTRAL RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1122 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BUSHLAND...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CANYON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AMARILLO...
BUSHLAND...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

LAT...LON 3561 10191 3561 10151 3520 10163 3501 10194
3511 10213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0428Z 210DEG 45KT 3515 10196

$$

JJB

[RL3AO]

And we are officially under way in the October 2007 severe weather outbreak. (I don't need no stinkin' depression in the GOM!)

[CrazyC83]

And we are officially under way in the October 2007 severe weather outbreak. (I don't need no stinkin' depression in the GOM!)

Assuming we get an outbreak in the end. Although tornadoes aren't a major threat tonight...

Reports of golf ball size hail in the Amarillo cell...

[RL3AO]

Second warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC069-170515-
/O.NEW.KLUB.SV.W.0260.071017T0434Z-071017T0515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CASTRO COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CASTRO COUNTY...OR ABOUT 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF DIMMITT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 7 4 5 1 2 9 0.

LAT...LON 3474 10231 3475 10199 3457 10200 3461 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 244DEG 31KT 3469 10217

$$

Maybe this will trigger the watch.

[CrazyC83]

Second warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC069-170515-
/O.NEW.KLUB.SV.W.0260.071017T0434Z-071017T0515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CASTRO COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CASTRO COUNTY...OR ABOUT 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF DIMMITT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 7 4 5 1 2 9 0.

LAT...LON 3474 10231 3475 10199 3457 10200 3461 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 244DEG 31KT 3469 10217

$$

Maybe this will trigger the watch.

Yeah I would expect Severe Thunderstorm Watch 705 very soon.

[RL3AO]

It is from the same cell...4 counties, 2 regional offices, 1 cell.

[RL3AO]

There it is.

Code: Select all

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 705
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM
   UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
   AMARILLO TEXAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BORGER TEXAS.  FOR
   A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH
   FROM NM...AND INCREASING L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE ON A 40 KT LLJ.
   RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 850-500 MB AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL LOCALLY
   ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 24035.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

[CrazyC83]

One of the cells is trying to hook...maybe we will get a quick start?

[RL3AO]

It is really close to the radar so I don't know how reliable the velocities are but they show some rotation.

T'storm warning #3.

[Bunkertor]

One of the cells is trying to hook...maybe we will get a quick start?

TORNADO WARNING
TXC011-381-170530-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0062.071017T0506Z-071017T0530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1206 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ARMSTRONG COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1201 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTH
OF PALO DURO CANYON...OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CANYON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PALO DURO CANYON BY 1220 AM CDT

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

[CrazyC83]

First tornado warning:

TORNADO WARNING
TXC011-381-170530-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0062.071017T0506Z-071017T0530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1206 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ARMSTRONG COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1201 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTH
OF PALO DURO CANYON...OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CANYON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PALO DURO CANYON BY 1220 AM CDT

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3506 10161 3502 10137 3478 10159 3478 10183
TIME...MOT...LOC 0506Z 219DEG 28KT 3483 10170

$$

JJB

[RL3AO]

Nice catch crazy.

[CrazyC83]

Nice catch crazy.

Actually Bunkertor caught it first...

[Bunkertor]

My reaction time is shorter, because it´s 7:15 in the morning ...

What´s the time, the spc updates it´s outlooks ?

[RL3AO]

Second.

TORNADO WARNING
TXC381-170545-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0063.071017T0511Z-071017T0545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1211 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CANYON...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1206 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTH
OF CANYON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CANYON BY 1220 AM CDT
LAKE TANGLEWOOD BY 1230 AM CDT

[CrazyC83]

Next SPC update is in about 30 minutes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

Texas tornado watch, Oklahoma severe watch.

One MCD



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW AND W-CENTRAL TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170941Z - 171145Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR DEVELOPING SVR THREAT. CONVECTION IS FORMING
AND SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY IN COVERAGE FROM CDS SWWD TO NEAR
MAF...PERHAPS SWD TO BETWEEN SJT-FST.

PLUME OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING/SPREADING EWD ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN --
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NM AND FAR W TX. THIS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
WELL JUXTAPOSED WITH ENRICHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRIMARILY ALONG AND
BELOW W TX CAPROCK. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED TO MID 60S F
BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND W TX MESONET DATA...WHICH ALSO SHOWS
RELATIVELY BACKED/SSELY SFC WINDS. WHEN COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT
LLJ-LEVEL FLOW...THIS YIELDS ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES ACROSS CAPROCK
REGION...FCST TO EXTEND EWD ACROSS LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND NW TX AS
NM PERTURBATION APCHS. MEANWHILE...FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST
EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS BECOMING ROOTED AT OR NEAR SFC...DESPITE
STABLE LAYER NEAR 2 KM AGL THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 50 J/KG
SBCINH. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND PERHAPS CONDITIONAL
TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN BECOME RELATIVELY
DISCRETE AND SUSTAINED. LARGE HAIL IS A DISTINCT THREAT...WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 10/17/2007


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

31080240 32660222 33850061 34049902 33189831 32349831
31119970 30800155


As of 6:15 am CDT

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=154

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php?forecast=mesomap

[HarlequinBoy]

I'm surprised, I wasn't expecting to see so much of Arkansas in the MOD.

[6SpeedTA95]

I woke up at 6am and there was a tornado watch for western Ok, now its 15 till 8 and we've got one for our area, so almost the entire state is already under a watch.

If the sun can come out and destabalize the atmosphere we'll be in for a substantial outbreak today. If it does not it could be a bust or a mild outbreak.