SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[JenBayles]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC201-339-152330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0001.071015T2136Z-071015T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
436 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A BAND OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR
ESTIMATES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS FROM NEAR JERSEY VILLAGE
TO THE WOODLANDS TO KINGWOOD. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS IN THESE AREAS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.

* FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OR NEAR...
PORTER...NEW CANEY...MEMORIAL...HOOKS AIRPORT...BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL
AIRPORT...ADDICKS...WOODLOCH...WOODBRANCH...TOMBALL...THE
WOODLANDS...SPRING VALLEY...SPRING...SPLENDORA...SHENANDOAH...ROMAN
FOREST...PORTER HEIGHTS...PATTON VILLAGE...OAK RIDGE NORTH...
KINGWOOD...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...HUMBLE...HILSHIRE
VILLAGE...HEDWIG VILLAGE...CHATEAU WOODS...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE AND
ALDINE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LAND
ADJACENT TO SMALL CREEKS AND BAYOUS. ADDITIONALLY...FRONTAGE ROADS...
HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES...FARM-TO-MARKET AND OTHER SECONDARY ROADS MAY
FLOOD. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS THE GROUND!

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
502 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

TXC015-089-157-473-481-160000-
WALLER TX-AUSTIN TX-COLORADO TX-FORT BEND TX-WHARTON TX-
502 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WHARTON COUNTY...
FORT BEND COUNTY...
COLORADO COUNTY...
AUSTIN COUNTY...
WALLER COUNTY...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
A LARGE AREA OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LAND
ADJACENT TO SMALL CREEKS AND BAYOUS. ADDITIONALLY...FRONTAGE ROADS...
HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES...FARM-TO-MARKET AND OTHER SECONDARY ROADS MAY
FLOOD. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS THE GROUND!

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3017 9598 2986 9589 2966 9564 2916 9649
2923 9658 2934 9657 2963 9679 2995 9650
3007 9621 3005 9617 3009 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 180DEG 0KT 2959 9640

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 0statement

[Yankeegirl]

Langham Creek where is crosses Barker Cypress is almost to the top! I have never seen it that high!! and btw, its still raining!!!

[Yankeegirl]

yikes... Looks like another round for me coming up from the south! Good lord!! I havent seen this much rain since Allison!!! Isnt this supposed to happen again tomorrow?

[srainhoutx]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC015-089-157-473-481-160100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0002.071015T2259Z-071016T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
559 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SOUTHERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
FROM SIMONTON TO SEALY TO EAGLE LAKE TO ROCK ISLAND. AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

* FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OR NEAR...
ROCK ISLAND...NADA...GARWOOD...EGYPT...WALLIS...SIMONTON...SEALY...
ORCHARD...FULSHEAR...EAST BERNARD...BROOKSHIRE... AND WALLIS.

SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...BAYOUS..AND FARM-TO-MARKET OR OTHER
SECONDARY ROADS MAY FLOOD QUICKLY. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE GROUND!

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2967 9653 2998 9613 2996 9590 2982 9586
2970 9567 2967 9562 2955 9578 2925 9615
2917 9656 2926 9664 2933 9657 2948 9664
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 180DEG 0KT 2958 9626

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

[srainhoutx]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC201-339-160115-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0003.071015T2322Z-071016T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 620 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HARRIS AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS
FALLEN BETWEEN KINGWOOD...JERSEY VILLAGE...TOMBALL AND THE
WOODLANDS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 2 HOURS.


* FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OR NEAR...
PORTER...NEW CANEY...LAKE CONROE DAM...DOBBIN...
BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...ADDICKS...WOODLOCH...WOODBRANCH...
WILLIS...TOMBALL...THE WOODLANDS...STAGECOACH...SPRING...SPLENDORA...
SHENANDOAH...ROMAN FOREST...PORTER HEIGHTS...PINEHURST...PATTON
VILLAGE...PANORAMA VILLAGE...OAK RIDGE NORTH...MONTGOMERY...
MAGNOLIA...KINGWOOD...KATY...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUMBLE...HEDWIG
VILLAGE...CUT AND SHOOT...CONROE...CHATEAU WOODS AND ALDINE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LAND
ADJACENT TO SMALL CREEKS AND BAYOUS. ADDITIONALLY...FRONTAGE ROADS...
HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES...FARM-TO-MARKET AND OTHER SECONDARY ROADS MAY
FLOOD. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS THE GROUND!

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3051 9537 3041 9531 3033 9522 3030 9514
3006 9507 2988 9528 2979 9550 2970 9564
2980 9585 2994 9576 3051 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 180DEG 0KT 3003 9560

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

[jasons2k]

Took two hours to get home, bumper-to-bumper, stop-n-go the whole way up the Hardy. It's still coming down in buckets with thunder & lightning here, with yet more training to come.

[ajurcat]

Actually I'm a lucking one in Houston. I work 3.5 miles from my home. But to get to my home, I have to pass White Oak Bayou. To go 3.5 miles took me 40 minutes. On the Harris County web site, we have had officially 4.19". Since the 'expansion' on White Oak, I worry more about the creek at 290 & Fairbanks. That little creek fills so quickly.

[jasons2k]

Now it's hailing here w/ more thunder. Looks like a long night ahead for Houston with even more storms forming to the SW. I'm concerned there will be some major flooding with this.

[TexasSam]

This could get interesting as the storms out over the Gulf move north and meet up with the storms over Houston are moving south.
What I don't like about that is it would happen just about where I ma here in Baytown

[jasons2k]

I got 4.20" yesterday

[vbhoutex]

I ended up with about 3.6" yesterday. Had lots of street flooding in our area, but haven't heard of any damage(in our area).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Most of the models are indicating a strong frontal passage next Monday morning. The latest GFS, in fact, has Monday's high being reached in the early morning with temperatures dropping into the 50s by sunrise and clearing skies with afternoon temps. struggling to reach 70˚. Then, on Monday night/Tuesday morning, it drops the low at IAH all the way down to 47˚ (meaning outlying areas could be even colder)! If this plays out, then we could easily be looking at a "real" fall front coming through in about 5 to 6 days. Stay tuned...

[southerngale]

Dang, guys! I was so busy yesterday and last night, I didn't realize how bad the weather was to my west. It rained for many hours here, but it was only light to moderate.... nothing like what y'all had. Hopefully, none of y'all had any damage.

[jasons2k]

Here is the morning update from Jeff Lindner. As he points out, the GFS has a long, storied history of being too aggressive with early-season cold fronts:

Fast progressive upper air pattern will begin to buckle and slow into more of a blocky pattern by this weekend.

Outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes appears likely over the central US today spreading NE into the Great Lakes Thursday. Given the shear profiles a few violent tornadoes will be possible…see moderate risk outline by SPC. SE TX will lie at the tail end of this activity with onshore flow and tropical low over the W Gulf moving inland later today over the area. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms as moist air mass heats although coverage should be in the 30-40% range.

Dry air mass invades on Thursday as weak front crosses the area and central US storm system moves toward S Canada. Dry weather will continue into Saturday before chnages yet again.

Extended:

Models are at odds on the evolution of the upper air pattern early next week and the threat of a strong cold front. GFS is very aggressive with a strong frontal passage Monday driving temps below normal with a high of only 72 on Tuesday with a 43% chance of overrunning light rain. Other models including the NOGAPS and ECMWF keep the upper trough over the southern Rockies allowing a cold front to move into C TX and stall…never reaching SE TX. ECMWF would favor climotology on such situations and the GFS has been suggesting frontal passages many times this fall that have yet to happen. Not confident on any of the solutions at this time and will need to see which way the models trend over the next 2-3 days.

Regardless, deep tropical tap looks to reestablish itself by Sunday with scattered showers returning to the forecast. If the ECMWF model is correct a stalled frontal boundary with deep tropical moisture in place could spell flooding concerns for early next week, especially if EPAC TS Kiko gets caught up in the mix. If the GFS is correct the front will blast off the coast with storng cold air advection and cloudy damp conditions through the middle of next week. Either way it does look wet.

[southerngale]

Geesh... what happened this morning? NWS and local stations only showed 20% to 30% chance of rain today. We have had some doozy storms... very heavy rain, lots of thunder and lightning, very gusty winds, tornado warnings in the area, and they finally just issued a Tornado Watch for the rest of the day.




Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

TORNADO WATCH 710 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC005-037-063-067-073-159-183-199-203-241-245-315-343-347-351-
361-365-387-401-403-405-419-423-449-457-459-499-172300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0710.071017T1610Z-071017T2300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN
GREGG HARDIN HARRISON
JASPER JEFFERSON MARION
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES NEWTON
ORANGE PANOLA RED RIVER
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY SMITH TITUS
TYLER UPSHUR WOOD

[southerngale]

My brother and his kids live in Jasper. My mom called to warn him, in case he didn't already know. There was a tornado warning further south a little while ago.

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
TXC241-457-171630-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0015.071017T1554Z-071017T1630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1054 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JASPER...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT

* AT 1051 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A TORNADO 23 MILES SOUTH OF JASPER...OR ABOUT 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KIRBYVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JASPER BY 1130 AM CDT...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3096 9412 3095 9386 3053 9393 3054 9411
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 186DEG 25KT 3061 9400

$$

JS


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/index.php

[Extremeweatherguy]

The strong cold front Monday is now looking more likely. Expect a bought of storms Sunday evening/Monday morning followed by nicer weather Monday afternoon through mid next week. We could easily end up seeing our first highs below 80˚ and lows below 50˚ out of this coming airmass.

[JonathanBelles]

Im looking forward to this cold front, highs in the 70's lol