Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

[Ed Mahmoud]

6 speed


I think that was the morning SWODY1 discussion.

[CrazyC83]

That watch may not last all that long...they may end up requiring a PDS late this afternoon...

[6SpeedTA95]

6 speed


I think that was the morning SWODY1 discussion.

I think it was too but I dunno, he just sent it to me via aim and said he thought it was pretty interesting. They're waiting on the last of the data for the new update. We should have new convection updates within the next 30 mins.

[6SpeedTA95]

That watch may not last all that long...they may end up requiring a PDS late this afternoon...

Same guy I've been talking to is expecting PDS watches to come out sometime between 1pm and 3pm for areas just to the west of I35 east to the okla/ark area.

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
TXC199-241-457-171600-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0014.071017T1537Z-071017T1600Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1037 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...KIRBYVILLE...BUNA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1034 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
BUNA...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES WEST OF KIRBYVILLE BY 1055 AM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3086 9386 3084 9386 3071 9388 3069 9388
3039 9392 3040 9413 3088 9411
TIME...MOT...LOC 1537Z 184DEG 33KT 3049 9401

$$

JS

[Ed Mahmoud]

New NAM suggests action this afternoon and evening generally East of I-35 and North of I-20.

DFW area just gets the Southern end, and is a little distant from strongest dynamics, but the Southernmost cell gets the most uninterrupted inflow.

[6SpeedTA95]

New NAM suggests action this afternoon and evening generally East of I-35 and North of I-20.

DFW area just gets the Southern end, and is a little distant from strongest dynamics, but the Southernmost cell gets the most uninterrupted inflow.

Thats pretty ominous.

[CrazyC83]

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF TEXARKANA
ARKANSAS TO 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 708...WW 709...

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL INCREASE NWD THRU WATCH AREA AS
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.


...HALES


SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF TEXARKANA
ARKANSAS TO 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 708...WW 709...

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL INCREASE NWD THRU WATCH AREA AS
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 171606
WOU0

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

TORNADO WATCH 710 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-172300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0710.071017T1610Z-071017T2300Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA
UNION


LAC001-003-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-031-039-043-045-
049-053-055-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-097-099-101-111-113-115-
119-127-172300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0710.071017T1610Z-071017T2300Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CADDO CALCASIEU CALDWELL
CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
EVANGELINE GRANT IBERIA
JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER
SABINE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN
ST. MARY UNION VERMILION
VERNON WEBSTER WINN


TXC005-037-063-067-073-159-183-199-203-241-245-315-343-347-351-
361-365-387-401-403-405-419-423-449-457-459-499-172300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0710.071017T1610Z-071017T2300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN
GREGG HARDIN HARRISON
JASPER JEFFERSON MARION
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES NEWTON
ORANGE PANOLA RED RIVER
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY SMITH TITUS
TYLER UPSHUR WOOD


GMZ450-452-455-172300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0710.071017T1610Z-071017T2300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW0
WW 710 TORNADO AR LA TX CW 171610Z - 172300Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20N TXK/TEXARKANA AR/ - 65SW 7R4/INTRACOASTAL CITY LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /14NNE TXK - 63S LCH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.

LAT...LON 33729251 29119148 29119430 33729548

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.


Watch 710 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[CrazyC83]

First tornado report:

1529 4 SW BUNA JASPER TX 3041 9401 REPORT RELAYED THROUGH TV 12 IN BEAUMONT. (LCH)

[dtrain44]

1-3 PM for a PDS sounds about right. Not quite time yet, but things are pointing in a dangerous direction.

[CrazyC83]

1-3 PM for a PDS sounds about right. Not quite time yet, but things are pointing in a dangerous direction.

I think the area to watch will be along an axis from Beaumont TX to Springfield MO, east and west 100 miles or so...

[6SpeedTA95]

1-3 PM for a PDS sounds about right. Not quite time yet, but things are pointing in a dangerous direction.

I think the area to watch will be along an axis from Beaumont TX to Springfield MO, east and west 100 miles or so...

Seams reasonable at this point. I'd suspect that we could have substantial issues south of I40 where there's been far less morning convection and less cloud cover.

[CrazyC83]

1630Z: MDT extended south and east somewhat but no HIGH.

[dtrain44]

Agree on the location. I think there could also be significant severe weather outside of that area, but probably not as much. Tulsa could be in for a long night......

Any word on a special sounding?

[dtrain44]

Man, this is like spring. Between the SPC Day 1 outlook and the two current mesoscale discussions, we've got a nice severe event unfolding right now, with the main attraction to come. Hope folks are watching the skies.

The hatched tornado area extends as far west as Lawton/western side of the OKC metro. The SPC Day 1 indicates that nearly anything that develops in OK, TX, LA, AR, KS, or MO has significant tornadic potential. I am surprised that there's no hatched hail/wind areas: anyone know why this is? It seems that the storms will only get stronger and the stuff that's developed so far today has done some wind damage.....

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/index.php

[6SpeedTA95]

1630Z: MDT extended south and east somewhat but no HIGH.

High seems unlikely because this ongoing convection is beginning to minimize the threat of tornadoes.

[dtrain44]

Chad, I think this is the first time since I've been a member of the board that severe weather has booted the tropics down the front page. Is that true?

If so, Boomer Sooner!

[6SpeedTA95]

Chad, I think this is the first time since I've been a member of the board that severe weather has booted the tropics down the front page. Is that true?

If so, Boomer Sooner!

I went to school at OU

When did you graduate?

[6SpeedTA95]

Man it is windy here, the anomometer on the roof at work is showing a 41mph average over the last 1minute.