Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

[Ed Mahmoud]

That cell in the OKC metro area is rotating I think.

FDR radar suggests both cells closest to OKC are rotating.


OUN radar too close to see it well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No warning, yet, but I suspect a tornado could develop from cell moving into NW Oklahoma County shortly.


One good thing, more chasers around there than anywhere else, if a tornado is dropping, the NWS will know PDQ quick.

[dtrain44]

My personal shot at severe weather appears to be over for the day, but these cells will get very interesting and further development should be expected.

It's always relieving and disappointing to see your dew point drop thirty degrees at this time of year......

Ed, I agree that this cell could be a big problem. The media are pretty good about getting people informed as well in that area. It seems that all of the interesting stuff in the OKC metro over the last couple of years has been on the north side....

[HarlequinBoy]

Does anyone have a link to the media list?

[HarlequinBoy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SMACKOVER...NORPHLET...EL DORADO...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SMACKOVER...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STEPHENS...
MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

and

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
358 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEASTERN OUACHITA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
LOUANN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LOUANN AROUND 405 PM CDT...
HAMPTON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...HAMPTON AROUND 450 PM CDT...
HARRELL AROUND 455 PM CDT...


Calhoun and Ouachita are just outside the watch, btw.

And in NW AR/NE OK..

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 403 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WEST SILOAM
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...GENTRY...
SPRINGTOWN...DECATUR...GRAVETTE...HIWASSE AND BELLA VISTA.

[dtrain44]

Local chaser reporting rotation and a wall cloud with the cell in Kingfisher/Logan counties. All OKC stations on continuous coverage (shocker, I know).

[HarlequinBoy]

Tornado Warning (Indiana Storm)
Northern Owen County in Indiana

Tornado Warning (Missouri Storm)
Northeast Johnson County
Southeast Lafayette County
Northwest Pettis County
Southwest Saline County

[CrazyC83]

Tornado Warning (Indiana Storm)
Northern Owen County in Indiana

Tornado Warning (Missouri Storm)
Northeast Johnson County
Southeast Lafayette County
Northwest Pettis County
Southwest Saline County

Those appear to be for confirmed tornadoes...

[HarlequinBoy]

Tornado Warning (Indiana Storm)
Northern Owen County in Indiana

Tornado Warning (Missouri Storm)
Northeast Johnson County
Southeast Lafayette County
Northwest Pettis County
Southwest Saline County

Those appear to be for confirmed tornadoes...

Do you mean they have been confirmed or that I was making it seem that way? I was just listing warnings right now.

[CrazyC83]

Tornado Warning (Indiana Storm)
Northern Owen County in Indiana

Tornado Warning (Missouri Storm)
Northeast Johnson County
Southeast Lafayette County
Northwest Pettis County
Southwest Saline County

Those appear to be for confirmed tornadoes...

Do you mean they have been confirmed or that I was making it seem that way? I was just listing warnings right now.

Ground confirmations

[CrazyC83]

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 430 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 709...WW 710...WW
711...WW 712...

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OK/TX AND SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN
LA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS APPROACH.
WIDESPREAD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HAIL WILL STORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART


SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 430 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 709...WW 710...WW
711...WW 712...

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OK/TX AND SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN
LA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS APPROACH.
WIDESPREAD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HAIL WILL STORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 172126
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

TORNADO WATCH 713 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-027-029-033-039-041-
043-045-047-049-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-079-
081-083-085-087-089-091-095-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-
119-125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-
180500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0713.071017T2130Z-071018T0500Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS BAXTER BENTON
BOONE BRADLEY CALHOUN
CARROLL CLARK CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY
CRAWFORD DALLAS DESHA
DREW FAULKNER FRANKLIN
FULTON GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MADISON MARION
MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA
PERRY PIKE POLK
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEARCY
SEBASTIAN SEVIER SHARP
STONE UNION VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL


LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-180500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0713.071017T2130Z-071018T0500Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN


OKC001-021-035-041-061-091-097-101-105-115-131-135-145-180500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0713.071017T2130Z-071018T0500Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
DELAWARE HASKELL MAYES
MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE NOWATA
OTTAWA ROGERS SEQUOYAH
WAGONER


TXC005-037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-
405-419-423-449-459-499-180500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0713.071017T2130Z-071018T0500Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN
GREGG HARRISON MARION
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RED RIVER RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW3
WW 713 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 172130Z - 180500Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NW HRO/HARRISON AR/ - 25SW IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /35NE RZC - 48WNW AEX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

LAT...LON 36569163 31469162 31469518 36569541

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.


Watch 713 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 172129Z - 172200Z

TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MO.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED A MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO SPREAD NWD
ACROSS MO THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT RETREATED TO THE N AND NOW
EXTENDED FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION NEAR KANSAS CITY MO
AND EWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO SRN IL. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS S OF
THE WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING
ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION WILL AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH
SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 1000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
STRONG AND SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH SUPERCELLS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR
TORNADOES...WITH THIS POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS SLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS INTO THE EVENING.

..PETERS.. 10/17/2007


ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

36599456 38589464 39309441 40149351 40599280 40489138
39769053 38209012 36909061 36529093 36519434

[6SpeedTA95]

Hey guys, got busy at work but I'm home now...not sure if this has been psoted yet

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...
PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO ALIGN FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND NOT MUCH
APPEARS TO BE WORKING AGAINST IT. LINE OF STORMS RAPIDLY MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA APPEAR LARGELY ELEVATED BUT
SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THESE STORMS TO ROOT IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AS THEY ENCOUNTER UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR.

THE BIG SHOW HOWEVER IS JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN OK AS A
VERY SHARP DRY LINE HAS SET UP AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN OK...PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING INCREASE IN 700MB
FLOW RECENTLY AS POTENT UPPER JET NOSES INTO SW U.S. SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. MORNING STORMS
HAVE LEFT A SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY NORTH OF I-44 WHICH COULD
SERVE TO ENHANCE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL. SHAPING UP TO BE A
LONG AND BUSY NIGHT TO SAY THE LEAST.

[RL3AO]

[dtrain44]

That had not been posted Speed. It looks very interesting. My folks live up in Jenks - they'll probably have a rough night. My seven year old brother is terrified of storms - he just sits awake in the hallway until they're over......

I wonder if there'll be more development south of those OKC metro area storms - Tulsa seems to be thinking that there will be big tornado potential with anything that would move NE or NNE across the I-44 corridor. More development south could make this an awful night for TSA.

[HarlequinBoy]

Tornado Warning (SW Missouri Storm)-
Eastern McDonald County

Tornado Warning (Southern Arkansas Storm)-
Calhoun County

Tornado Warning (Indiana Storm)-
Southwest Morgan County
Northeast Owen County

Tornado Warning (Kansas Storm)
Phillips County

[RL3AO]

[6SpeedTA95]

Everyone in Missouri needs to be on alert, this could get bad for them late this evening and into the overnight hours.

[CrazyC83]

Everyone in Missouri needs to be on alert, this could get bad for them late this evening and into the overnight hours.

Very true, and nocturnal outbreaks can be devastating.

Does Tulsa have good coverage?

[CrazyC83]

Wind damage reported in Tulsa per SPC storm reports.