Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

[HarlequinBoy]

Tornado Warning (Central MS - New Storm)
Yazoo

[Category 5]

Pretty well defined hook near Yazoo City.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Oktoberfest will be open on Thursday!

As of 10 p.m., Wednesday, the festival will re-open at
5 p.m. on Thursday, as scheduled.

Please do not call or e-mail! More info will be posted right here as soon as it is available.

Link

[CrazyC83]

It seems we are seeing several things happening at once: a major squall line to the west, and supercells trying to form to the south and in between...

[HarlequinBoy]

Tornado Warning (Central MS)
Holmes

[CrazyC83]

Looks like we will have to watch three things overnight:

1) Any breaks in the squall line could produce a situation similar to Evansville 2005

2) The large dry slot and cells forming in southwest Arkansas - if they can intensify

3) The continued supercells in Mississippi and into West Tennessee

[HarlequinBoy]

Yep, I agree.

I was surprised to see new cells firing southwest of Little Rock. I'm not sure if they'll become tornadic, but they already have multiple warnings on them.

[HarlequinBoy]

0801 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N HATTIESBURG 31.39N 89.31W
10/17/2007 FORREST MS EMERGENCY MNGR

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOUSE...TREES DOWN...SECTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 59 CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES. REPORTED BY
HATTIESBURG EOC.

0835 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N PALESTINE 35.01N 90.90W
10/17/2007 ST. FRANCIS AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN BLOCKING COUNTY ROAD 130. CAMPERS AND
TRAMPOLINES TOSSED AROUND AS WELL.

0845 PM TSTM WND DMG VICKSBURG 32.33N 90.87W
10/17/2007 WARREN MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN COUNTY AND CITY WIDE.


The only substantial severe reports out of MS/east AR this since late afternoon.

[CrazyC83]

0801 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N HATTIESBURG 31.39N 89.31W
10/17/2007 FORREST MS EMERGENCY MNGR

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOUSE...TREES DOWN...SECTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 59 CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES. REPORTED BY
HATTIESBURG EOC.

0835 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N PALESTINE 35.01N 90.90W
10/17/2007 ST. FRANCIS AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN BLOCKING COUNTY ROAD 130. CAMPERS AND
TRAMPOLINES TOSSED AROUND AS WELL.

0845 PM TSTM WND DMG VICKSBURG 32.33N 90.87W
10/17/2007 WARREN MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN COUNTY AND CITY WIDE.


The only substantial severe reports out of MS/east AR this since late afternoon.

Since those were tornado-warned, I wouldn't be surprised if they were tornadoes.

[CrazyC83]

Do current temperatures and weather conditions play any role in the nighttime hours?

[CrazyC83]

New supercell SE of Springfield MO worth watching as well...

[HarlequinBoy]

Well it's 73 here.. after a high of 77 so it isn't cooling down that quickly.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MO/AR/SRN IL/WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 713...714...

VALID 180356Z - 180500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 713...714...CONTINUES.

NEW WW/S WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF MO AND AR EXTENDING INTO SRN
IL/ WRN KY AS ONGOING AND NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS MO/AR
AND SPREADS ENEWD OVERNIGHT. THESE NEW WW/S WILL LIKELY REPLACE ALL
OR PARTS OF WW/S 713 AND 714.

STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
REGIONS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WITH LOW LCLS EXTENDING NWD
INTO MO/IL/ WRN KY. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AS BASE OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 80-90 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH ATTENDANT
TORNADO THREAT.

ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SQUALL LINE ACROSS CENTRAL MO
INTO NWRN AR...WITH RECENT STRONG WIND GUST REPORTS IN SWRN
MO...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT WITH ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE. FARTHER
S...DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 10/18/2007


ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...

33159235 33139378 33589417 34139433 35249457 37589330
39379303 40359209 40059039 39428887 38618812 37118771
36538789 36398933 34059075 33319171

[HarlequinBoy]

Here's another one I wouldn't be surprised was a tornado. It was warned as one..

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 W STAR CITY 33.94N 92.04W
10/17/2007 CLEVELAND AR EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL HOMES...TRAILERS AND BARNS WERE DAMAGED OUTSIDE
OF STAR CITY. AT LEAST 6 HOMES WERE UNHABITABLE. THERE
WERE MANY TREES BLOWN DOWN AND POWER IS OUT IN PARTS OF
LINCOLN COUNTY.

[CrazyC83]

New watch issued, awaiting information.

[CrazyC83]

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ARKANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1120 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF MONTICELLO
ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLIPPIN ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 713...WW 714...WW 715...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
RE-DEVELOP ACROSS AR AS UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH REGION. VERY
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /3KM SRH OVER 500 M2/S2/ AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

[HarlequinBoy]

1106 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N ROGERSVILLE 37.16N 93.06W
10/17/2007 WEBSTER MO PUBLIC

CAR FLIPPED OVER.


Sheesh!

There's a lot of wind reports coming out of NWS Springfield.

[CrazyC83]

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ALTON ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 714. WATCH NUMBER 714 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1140 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 713...WW 715...WW 716...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS MO AND INTO WESTERN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY MAY MAINTAIN A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...AS WELL AS
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ALTON ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 714. WATCH NUMBER 714 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1140 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 713...WW 715...WW 716...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS MO AND INTO WESTERN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY MAY MAINTAIN A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...AS WELL AS
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 180436
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

TORNADO WATCH 717 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC003-005-013-027-051-061-077-083-117-119-121-133-135-145-149-
157-163-181-189-181100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0717.071018T0440Z-071018T1100Z/

IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN
CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE
JACKSON JERSEY MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR UNION
WASHINGTON


MOC007-017-019-023-027-031-035-051-055-065-067-071-073-091-093-
099-105-113-123-125-131-133-137-139-143-149-151-153-157-161-163-
169-173-179-181-183-186-187-189-201-203-207-213-215-219-221-223-
229-510-181100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0717.071018T0440Z-071018T1100Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUDRAIN BOLLINGER BOONE
BUTLER CALLAWAY CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER COLE CRAWFORD
DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GASCONADE HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON LACLEDE LINCOLN
MADISON MARIES MILLER
MISSISSIPPI MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEW MADRID OREGON OSAGE
OZARK PERRY PHELPS
PIKE PULASKI RALLS
REYNOLDS RIPLEY SCOTT
SHANNON ST. CHARLES ST. FRANCOIS
ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE STODDARD
TANEY TEXAS WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WRIGHT


MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ST. LOUIS CITY


ATTN...WFO...PAH...SGF...LSX...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW7
WW 717 TORNADO IL MO 180440Z - 181100Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NNW ALN/ALTON IL/ - 35ESE UNO/WEST PLAINS MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /35N STL - 31NNW ARG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

REPLACES WW 714..KS MO

LAT...LON 39418865 36548966 36549291 39419201

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.


Watch 717 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/MUCH OF MS/MO BOOTHEEL/WESTERN
TN/WESTERN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 715...

VALID 180527Z - 180700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 715 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES
ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 715. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO THE
SCHEDULED 07Z EXPIRATION...MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL
AND PERHAPS WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS/WESTERN KY.

UPSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH 715...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCING CHANNEL OF
ASCENT...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AR...AS FAR EAST AS THE LITTLE ROCK VICINITY AS OF 05Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MS
RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED -- GENERALLY AROUND 500-750 J/KG MLCAPE -- VERY STRONG FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATING STORMS...WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO EASTERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL AND POTENTIALLY
WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY/NORTHERN MS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
400 M2/S2...FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.

FARTHER SOUTH...A RELATIVE LULL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF MS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME GIVEN
VEERING FLOW ALOFT/LIMITED MASS CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTH
EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHERN MS.

..GUYER.. 10/18/2007


ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

35949069 36978935 37288828 36168811 32908876 32699068
33689095

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 180559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH TN AND OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WILL
LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
WILL SHIFT NWD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW
DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL ADVANCE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE TN AND OH VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT.

...TN VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NOW RESIDING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE BROAD WARM SECTOR ALONG STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
LIKELY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING LEAD WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. IN WAKE OF LEAD
WAVE...MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER A PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT FROM THE SW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS
MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH...WRN
TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME WEAKENING AND VEERING OF THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY OCCUR IN WAKE OF LEAD WAVE EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...KINEMATIC PROFILES SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG DEEP
SHEAR AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINES OR A MIX OF
LINE SEGMENTS AND CELLS AS THEY ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.


...ERN NEB...NERN KS AND NWRN MO...

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
ASCENT ATTENDING VORT MAX ROTATING SEWD THROUGH UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS. ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS INSTABILITY MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA.

..DIAL.. 10/18/2007

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