The tornado hit less than 20 minutes ago I believe. No immediate word of injuries.
Pensacola's population is 55,000, with about 400,000 more people in the beach communities and other areas nearby.
Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains
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Re: Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains
From Pensacola News Journal http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/app ... 18003/1006
I haven't been able to find any video coverage yet.
I haven't been able to find any video coverage yet.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN FL PNHDL AND ADJACENT ERN GULF COASTAL AREAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181615Z - 181745Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT GENERALLY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED. AND...A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUING ZONE OF DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS REGION...NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY
A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. THIS FORCING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A SLOWLY
EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FOCUSED
NEAR AN 850 MB CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THIS
IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN...CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRECLUDE THESE DEW POINTS FROM ADVECTING
INLAND...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM. BUT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
STILL ABOVE 70F INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS. AND...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT/NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO
BRIEF/GENERALLY WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY NEAR COASTAL AREAS ANOTHER
FEW HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG BENEATH
20-30 KT 850 MB FLOW.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...LOCALLY
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...IN SLOWLY MOVING/TRAINING STORMS. AS LARGE UPSTREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON... DIMINISHING UPPER
FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DISSIPATION OF STORM CLUSTER BY
21-22Z.
..KERR.. 10/18/2007
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
29498878 30178798 30708788 31068686 30668544 29968482
29598551 29808685 29188829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN FL PNHDL AND ADJACENT ERN GULF COASTAL AREAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181615Z - 181745Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT GENERALLY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED. AND...A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUING ZONE OF DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS REGION...NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY
A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. THIS FORCING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A SLOWLY
EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FOCUSED
NEAR AN 850 MB CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THIS
IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN...CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRECLUDE THESE DEW POINTS FROM ADVECTING
INLAND...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM. BUT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
STILL ABOVE 70F INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS. AND...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT/NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO
BRIEF/GENERALLY WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY NEAR COASTAL AREAS ANOTHER
FEW HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG BENEATH
20-30 KT 850 MB FLOW.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...LOCALLY
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...IN SLOWLY MOVING/TRAINING STORMS. AS LARGE UPSTREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON... DIMINISHING UPPER
FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DISSIPATION OF STORM CLUSTER BY
21-22Z.
..KERR.. 10/18/2007
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
29498878 30178798 30708788 31068686 30668544 29968482
29598551 29808685 29188829
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JonathanBelles
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- Contact:
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains
SPC AC 181623
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI INTO WRN TN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK TO THE U.P. OF MI...
...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NRN GULF STATES...
VERY MOIST AND BUOYANT AIRMASS IS RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. THIS NWD SURGE IS IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSE AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MN. DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY OVER
WI...THEN ARCING SWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO EXTREME NERN AR BY EARLY
EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE WITH AN
EVOLUTION TOWARD DAMAGING BOW ECHOES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
FEW LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
EARLY MORNING DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST STRONG
HEATING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MO INTO IL WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS PLUME OF STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ASSIST THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS ACROSS IL WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE RISING
THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S. LATEST HIGH RES WRF-NMM4 AND
WRF-NSSL4 MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WI WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT COOLER. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
FARTHER SOUTH BUT EARLIER THAN 22-23Z TIME FRAME SUGGESTED BY THESE
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN MO/ERN IL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE BREACHED BY 19Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS COULD STRUGGLE INITIALLY BEFORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS EVOLVE
INTO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE THIS OCCURS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD
QUICKLY NEWD INTO WRN IND AND LOWER MI. IF CONVECTION REMAINS
DISCRETE...TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN ENHANCED. HOWEVER...ANY
LINEAR EVOLUTION COULD RESULT IN VERY DAMAGING BOW ECHO STRUCTURES
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 50KT. THESE FAST STORM
MOTIONS COULD LEAD TO A FEW LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES.
FARTHER SOUTH...A MORE COMPLEX AND NEBULOUS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS DIURNAL HEATING AND MAINTAIN
MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL
RESIDE WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHERE STORM ROTATION
WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AS STRONGER FLOW SPREADS INTO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
STATES LATER TONIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STORM MOTIONS WILL
INCREASE. FASTER MOVING STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN TORNADIC ACTIVITY.
..DARROW/JEWELL.. 10/18/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1631Z (12:31PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI INTO WRN TN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK TO THE U.P. OF MI...
...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NRN GULF STATES...
VERY MOIST AND BUOYANT AIRMASS IS RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. THIS NWD SURGE IS IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSE AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MN. DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY OVER
WI...THEN ARCING SWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO EXTREME NERN AR BY EARLY
EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE WITH AN
EVOLUTION TOWARD DAMAGING BOW ECHOES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
FEW LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
EARLY MORNING DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST STRONG
HEATING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MO INTO IL WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS PLUME OF STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ASSIST THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS ACROSS IL WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE RISING
THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S. LATEST HIGH RES WRF-NMM4 AND
WRF-NSSL4 MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WI WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT COOLER. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
FARTHER SOUTH BUT EARLIER THAN 22-23Z TIME FRAME SUGGESTED BY THESE
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN MO/ERN IL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE BREACHED BY 19Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS COULD STRUGGLE INITIALLY BEFORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS EVOLVE
INTO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE THIS OCCURS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD
QUICKLY NEWD INTO WRN IND AND LOWER MI. IF CONVECTION REMAINS
DISCRETE...TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN ENHANCED. HOWEVER...ANY
LINEAR EVOLUTION COULD RESULT IN VERY DAMAGING BOW ECHO STRUCTURES
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 50KT. THESE FAST STORM
MOTIONS COULD LEAD TO A FEW LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES.
FARTHER SOUTH...A MORE COMPLEX AND NEBULOUS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS DIURNAL HEATING AND MAINTAIN
MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL
RESIDE WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHERE STORM ROTATION
WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AS STRONGER FLOW SPREADS INTO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
STATES LATER TONIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STORM MOTIONS WILL
INCREASE. FASTER MOVING STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN TORNADIC ACTIVITY.
..DARROW/JEWELL.. 10/18/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1631Z (12:31PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN WI...NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181636Z - 181900Z
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY MID
AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CHARACTER OF THE CU FIELD INDICATE
THE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY CAPPED. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF HEATING OVER CNTRL AND ERN WI AS WELL AS OVER
MUCH OF IL. MEANWHILE...RAPID COOLING IS TAKING PLACE ALOFT WITH
STRONG UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SHIFTING NWD OUT OF IA/NRN IL INTO WI.
CONTINUED HEATING AND UPPER COOLING WILL ERODE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS FROM NRN IL INTO SRN/ERN WI.
THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
SUGGEST HIGHLY SHEARED AND TILTED UPDRAFTS. HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
ANY STORM. OVERALL...HODOGRAPHS ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
STRAIGHT...BUT ANY LOCAL LOW LEVEL BACKING OF THE WINDS SUCH AS
ALONG LAKE SHORE BOUNDARIES MAY ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL.
..JEWELL.. 10/18/2007
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...
42029004 43278979 43879008 44909055 45518997 45408847
45198738 44908727 43198759 42448761 41868822
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN WI...NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181636Z - 181900Z
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY MID
AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CHARACTER OF THE CU FIELD INDICATE
THE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY CAPPED. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF HEATING OVER CNTRL AND ERN WI AS WELL AS OVER
MUCH OF IL. MEANWHILE...RAPID COOLING IS TAKING PLACE ALOFT WITH
STRONG UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SHIFTING NWD OUT OF IA/NRN IL INTO WI.
CONTINUED HEATING AND UPPER COOLING WILL ERODE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS FROM NRN IL INTO SRN/ERN WI.
THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
SUGGEST HIGHLY SHEARED AND TILTED UPDRAFTS. HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
ANY STORM. OVERALL...HODOGRAPHS ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
STRAIGHT...BUT ANY LOCAL LOW LEVEL BACKING OF THE WINDS SUCH AS
ALONG LAKE SHORE BOUNDARIES MAY ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL.
..JEWELL.. 10/18/2007
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...
42029004 43278979 43879008 44909055 45518997 45408847
45198738 44908727 43198759 42448761 41868822
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JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
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JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
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Re: Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains
Our local TV station just reported a tornado coming on shore near Mary Ester,just west of Fort Walton.
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Aquawind
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Re:
RL3AO wrote:The low is over me...983mb.
A monster spin alright.. Impressive rains up there as well..
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/
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Re: Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains
CNN's web site had been webcasting WEAR's coverage out of Pensacola. Reports are that the Gulf Breeze peninsula may have gotten as much as 9 inches of rain this morning, and we're currently getting extremely heavy rainfall in central Okaloosa County.
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http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EVX&product=NTP&overlay=11101101&loop=no
Radar agrees about the 9 inches in Pensacola.
Radar agrees about the 9 inches in Pensacola.
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