Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

[CrazyC83]

That giant hole is just waiting to be filled...

[CrazyC83]

ABC 33/40 from Birmingham now streaming: http://www.al.com/abc3340/video/index.ssf

[CrazyC83]

Unconfirmed media report: 1 dead in Pensacola

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181859Z - 182000Z

A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER MUCH OF LOWER
MI. HORIZONTAL ROLLS BENEATH CAPPING INVERSION HAVE CHANGED
CHARACTER OVER WRN MI SUGGESTING CAPPING IS BEING REMOVED BY COOLING
ALOFT AND SURFACE HEATING. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE BREEZE
LOOKS TO BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR S AS NRN IN WHERE CU FIELD IS ALSO
INCREASING AND DEWPOINTS ARE RISING.

CONTINUED HEATING AS WELL AS COOLING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS
TO DEVELOP. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS ARE
LIKELY...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..JEWELL.. 10/18/2007


ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

41058723 42528632 44108632 45118616 45538523 45048358
42578430 40868506 40728585 40738649

[CrazyC83]

Dewpoints approaching 60 even up in my area...

[CrazyC83]

ALC093-181930-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0135.000000T0000Z-071018T1930Z/
MARION AL-
203 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
MARION COUNTY...

AT 200 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR PEA RIDGE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAMILTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PEARCES MILL BY 210 PM CDT...
PEARCES MILL AND PINEY GROVE BY 215 PM CDT...
BRINN BY 220 PM CDT...
BEAR CREEK AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TESSNER BY 230 PM CDT...

[Ed Mahmoud]

My brother teaches college in Michigan...

[CrazyC83]

My brother teaches college in Michigan...

Any farther north and east and I am in it...

[CrazyC83]

NWS Northern Indiana predicting doomsday???

000
FXUS63 KIWX 181858
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
258 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

.NEAR TERM...
...DANGEROUS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS IMMINENT...

CONVECTIVE INITIATION IMMINENT ACRS ERN/CNTRL IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS
SECONDARY SW OVR MO STEAMS NEWD W/CORRESPONDING INCREASING FORCED
ASCENT. 18Z SPECIAL SNDG SHOWS DRAMATIC MID LVL COOLING IN RESPONSE
TO THIS FEATURE AND ALREADY VIS SAT SHOWING AGGRAVATED CU DVLPMNT AND
ISOLD SHRA ATTM FM NE IL INTO SW MI IN RESPONSE TO ROBUST SFC
DESTABILIZATION THAT HAD OCCURRED WITHIN DRYSLOT OF DEPARTING LEAD
WAVE AND ENHANCED BY SIG NWD LL MSTR RTN OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ALL THIS COMBINED W/DRAMATIC DEEP LYR SHEAR...MID LVL WIND
MAX ~ 120 KTS...AND AUGMENTED THROUGH SFC BACKING IN CONJUNCTION
W/INCREASING MID LVL HGT FALLS ASSOCD W/UPR TROUGH SUGGESTS EXTREME
HIGH END DAMAGING WIND EVENT W/POSSIBILITY OF LONG LIVED SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING ONCE STORMS GET GOING.

WILL EXPAND ZFP TORNADO MENTION EWD TO INCLUDE NW OH FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WHICH WAS LEFT OUT OF EARLIER UPDATE GIVEN EARLIER STORM
INITIATION WINDOW. IN ADDITION...WILL EXTEND SVR MENTION A BIT LTR
TO ACCOUNT FOR BIT LATER FROPA. OTHERWISE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT GIVEN NOCTURNAL COOLING AND SOME
STABILIZATION IN THE BNDRY LYR SO WILL LET EARLIER ISSUED WIND
ADVISORY PLAY OUT AT 00Z.

&&

[RL3AO]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
RHINELANDER WISCONSIN TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF RACINE
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

[CrazyC83]

Still waiting on the main watch.

[HarlequinBoy]

Didn't expect to be under another tornado watch this afternoon. Upper 80s and breezy here.. I'm expecting the main action east of here though.

[CrazyC83]

Storms farther north developing now:

TORNADO WARNING
MIC035-133-182015-
/O.NEW.KGRR.TO.W.0009.071018T1954Z-071018T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
354 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS
HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CLARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 351 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4
MILES SOUTH OF MARION...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF EVART...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TEMPLE BY 400 PM EDT
LEOTA BY 415 PM EDT

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4418 8511 4418 8494 4407 8484 4393 8516
4408 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 236DEG 19KT 4406 8513

$$

TURNAGE

[RL3AO]

I really think we could get 50 tornado reports today.

[CrazyC83]

The 2000Z update is delayed; seems like there are debates being made at the SPC...

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 182004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS SRN LOWER MI...WRN
OH...IND...ERN AND SRN IL...SE MO...WRN KY...WRN TN AND FAR NE AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES......

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES...LOWER OH VALLEY...MID-MS
VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

...GREAT LAKES REGION/LOWER OH VALLEY...
A POWERFUL NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SWD
FROM AN ERN MN 980 MB SFC LOW ACROSS ERN IA AND ERN MO. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM IND EXTENDING SWD
ACROSS WRN KY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHICH
COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SQUALL-LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MOVE EWD INTO SRN LOWER MI...IND AND CNTRL KY.

A WELL-DEFINED 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE
OZARK REGION EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS JET IS
CREATING VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL ORGANIZED SEVERE LINE-SEGMENTS.
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS KY...IND AND LOWER MI SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. 0-3 KM SRH VALUES ABOVE 250 M2/S2 ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION SUGGESTS STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY
AREAS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS A
SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS AND STORMS BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE DURING THE
EVENING. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH
THE FASTER MOVING LINE-SEGMENTS/BOW ECHOES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH ROTATING STORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
THREAT BECOMING MORE ISOLATED SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES.

...TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED
UPPER LEVEL-TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A BAND OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT
IS LOCATED FROM NE TX ACROSS AR INTO SRN IL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXISTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MOVING MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT ERN MS AND AL ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONGOING MCS. A
SQUALL-LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 100 MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WITH THE SERN EDGE OF THE JET LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND TN VALLEY. 50 TO 60 KT WINDS ALOFT ARE CREATING MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM SRN MS AND CNTRL AL NWD TO
TN. THIS ALONG WITH BACKED SSELY SFC WINDS ACROSS AL...THE FL
PANHANDLE AND WRN GA IS CREATING WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MS AS SUPERCELLS
AND SEVERE LINE SEGMENTS ORGANIZE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS CNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S F ARE CREATING LOW LCL HEIGHTS. THESE FACTORS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS.
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE
SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EWD ACROSS TN...MS AND AL LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME THE
MORE DOMINATE MODE OF SEVERE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 10/18/2007

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2010Z (4:10PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[RL3AO]

Hmm. I was really expecting high risk for Indiana.

[tidesong]

Clouds are really starting to build up quite nicely to the NE here. I'm wondering if we'll see anything this far SW....

[CrazyC83]

Are temperatures around 60 warm enough to trigger severe weather with dewpoints also near 60?

[RL3AO]

Are temperatures around 60 warm enough to trigger severe weather with dewpoints also near 60?

I remember a few years ago we had a tornado about 15 miles away from me when it was 52 degrees in March.