Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

Ed Mahmoud · #401 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:23 pm

Storms about to pop Western KY, also SE MO.

I expect at least one PDS watch soon.

Ed Mahmoud · #402 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:24 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Are temperatures around 60 warm enough to trigger severe weather with dewpoints also near 60?

Low cloud bases...

#403 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:27 pm

Watch issued...NOT a PDS.

Code: Select all

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 724
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   325 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          PART OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ILLINOIS
          MUCH OF INDIANA
          MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN
          LAKE HURON
          LAKE MICHIGAN
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
   1100 PM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   ALPENA MICHIGAN TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS. 
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 722...WW 723...
   
   DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ROTATING NEWD ACROSS MID MS
   VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES TO E OF DEEP LOW OVER MN.  AIR MASS NOW
   MDTLY UNSTABLE AND WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
   HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST AXIS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND
   DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO LINES AND BOWS. 
   ADDITIONALLY SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   TORNADOES.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
   
   
   ...HALES

#404 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:29 pm

That should be a PDS with those numbers (90 mph)...

#405 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:51 pm

Kentucky becoming a hotbed of activity...

HarlequinBoy · #406 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:52 pm

Tornado Warnings

(West Alabama Storm)
South Central Greene

(West Alabama Storm 2)
South Pickens
Northwest Greene
North Central Sumter

Both have reported tornadoes.

(Florida Panhandle/SW GA)
East Jackson
Seminole
Western Decatur
Southwest Miller

#407 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:58 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 182052Z - 182215Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ADDITIONAL WW.

BROKEN BAND OF STORMS SEEM TO BE ADVANCING EAST OF INITIATING
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...AIDED BY 30-40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW EMANATING FROM RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...
THE LONGEVITY OF ONGOING STORMS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
BORER INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS IN QUESTION. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
WEAKENING TRENDS MAY ENSUE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. BUT...UNTIL
THIS OCCURS...SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 30+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 10/18/2007

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX...

30648874 31508856 32348817 32938762 33818669 34438604
33158531 32208517 31148542 30508576 30318779

#408 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:03 pm

Report: Pensacola tornado = EF1

HarlequinBoy · #409 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:05 pm

Survey found Lincoln County, AR tornado to be EF1.
Forrest County, MS tornado EF1.

#410 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:06 pm

http://streaming.news25.us/launch.asp?v ... ve&type=vu Evansville coverage

#411 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:09 pm

Also covering: http://www.14wfie.com

Ed Mahmoud · #412 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:13 pm

Owensboro, KY, home town of Michael Waltrip, driver of the #55 Michael Waltrip Racing Napa Auto Parts Toyota Camry- severe t-storm warning.

Those developing storms should be in vicinity of Indianapolis in a couple of hours, when WRF forecast sounding is downright ugly.

#413 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:14 pm

Tornado Warning - Hancock County, KY

HarlequinBoy · #414 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:15 pm

Tornado Warning

(West Kentucky Storm)
Northeast Daviess

(Another West Kentucky Storm)
Northwest Caldwell
Crittenden
Central Livingston

(Central Alabama Storm)
Northern Greene

#415 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:18 pm

SW Georgia getting involved.

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
454 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
SOUTHWESTERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DONALSONVILLE...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 350 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTH OF DONALSONVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DONALSONVILLE BY 520 PM EDT...

HarlequinBoy · #416 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:32 pm

Tornado Warning (New SE Missouri Storm)
Butler
Southeast Ripley

(West Kentucky Storm/Southern Indiana)
Northwest Hancock
Perry

#417 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:33 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
SOUTHEASTERN RIPLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT.

* AT 427 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OXLY...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FAIRDEALING...NEELYVILLE...POPLAR BLUFF...QULIN...BROSELEY AND ASH
HILL.

HarlequinBoy · #418 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:35 pm

That storm has fired just west of the watch.

And the Lawrence County, MO tornado was rated EF2.

Tornado Warning
(West Kentucky Storm)
Southeast Union
Webster

(Michigan Storm)
Cheboygan
Presque Isle

#419 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:40 pm

Whats up with the SPC site? They haven't added WW 724 to the map and haven't created a page for MD 2113.

#420 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:44 pm

SPC must be having technical issues.

Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

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