Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

[CrazyC83]

Now that looks like a large wedge tornado in the 3D...

[WindRunner]

Latest scan on KPAH shows a decent hook on the southern cell with an improving velocity couplet, as well as increasing SW values . . . wouldn't be surprised to see some funnel reports in the next 15 minutes . . .

[CrazyC83]

Now 8 tornado reports.

[WindRunner]

The cell that is now about 25 miles due west of Louisville seems to be falling apart, somewhat . . . hook and velocity returns are getting less impressive.

[WindRunner]

I was going to say we have three areas of concern in western KY right now, but it seems we have four, as a new cell now has a nice rotation just south of the KY border in Calloway County. The other cell that hasn't been mentioned is actually embedded in/being absorbed by the Lyon County cell, yet the velocities flared once the merger began. It's the farthest north of the four.

[WindRunner]

I think the next cell to watch is going to be the one moving out of Fulton County, KY, in the far SW corner of the state. It's a bit behind the line, but shows promise.

[HurricaneBill]

I can't remember there ever being an outbreak this widespread. This is covering more ground than the Super Outbreak!

The Veterans Day Outbreak of 2002.

[CrazyC83]

Mean storms coming into SE Michigan as well now...

[WindRunner]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
732 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

KYC059-101-149-233-190100-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-071019T0100Z/
HENDERSON KY-DAVIESS KY-MCLEAN KY-WEBSTER KY-
732 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
WEBSTER...NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN...DAVIESS AND SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

AT 730 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF BEECH GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

AT 719 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED JUST WEST OF SEBREE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HEBBARDSVILLE...MOSELEYVILLE...STANLEY...OWENSBORO AND MASONVILLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

LAT...LON 3784 8718 3778 8713 3779 8707 3766 8697
3755 8737 3756 8740 3744 8777 3756 8785
3765 8773 3766 8775 3790 8732
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 244DEG 39KT 3768 8738

$$



I'm seeing about 110kts GTG shear with this cell . . . so that report is no surprise!

EDIT: Corresponding LSR says new media enroute to the community . . . that should be interesting to see.

[Bunkertor]

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/

[btangy]

TVS headed for Alpena, MI

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR OH VLY AND MID-SOUTH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 722...

VALID 190051Z - 190215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 722 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG AND/OR LONG
TRACKED...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM SRN
IND SWD INTO CNTRL/WRN KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN AND EXTREME NRN MS.

NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS...A FEW EXHIBITING SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION...CONTINUE FROM WEST OF KSDF SWWD TO JUST E OF THE MS RVR
IN NWRN MS AT 0030Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
OWING TO INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH 00Z BNA SOUNDING
EXHIBITING ABOUT 1700 J/KG OF MLCAPE. VWPS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW
TREMENDOUS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND 50+ KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...ALL
INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES OVER A
VERY LARGE REAL ESTATE CENTERED ON THE LWR OH VLY/MIDWEST INTO THE
MID-SOUTH.

THROUGH LATE EVENING...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST
ACROSS MIDDLE/WRN TN NWD INTO IND WHERE MODELS FCST AN ACCELERATION
OF THE SLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS BENEATH 95+ KTS OF MID-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW. EVENTUALLY...THE NUMBER OF STORMS MAY BEGIN TO MODULATE STORM
MODE SOMEWHAT AS CELLS BEGIN TO MERGE. BUT...SUCH STRONG AMBIENT
SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WITH
POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND HIGH WINDS.

..RACY.. 10/19/2007

[RL3AO]

Warnings everywhere. Incredible.

[JonathanBelles]

How many tornadoes have there been in this event? total storm reports so far for the event?

[CrazyC83]

How many tornadoes have there been in this event? total storm reports so far for the event?

Event tornadoes: 28 (probably higher)

Event storm reports: >400

[Weatherfreak14]

This is compley incredible Supercells.

[WindRunner]

Strong tornado appears to be bearning down on Owensboro as we speak.

[btangy]

3 or 4 likely tornados given the tightness of the couplets. One passing very near or right over Owensboro

[RL3AO]

I can't even keep up with everything. Such an incredible outbreak for mid-October.

[CrazyC83]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...SERN STATES...TN AND OH VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES...

...TN VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT CURRENTLY UNDERWAY FROM WRN TN THROUGH WRN
AND CNTRL KY...ERN IL...IND AND LOWER MI WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES. EARLY THIS EVENING A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS PRESENT OVER E
CNTRL MN WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
NWD INTO ERN IL AND WRN UPPER MI. WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE FRONT
REMAINS MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 J/KG
OVER WRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS LOWER MI.
NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND WEAK CAP IS PROMOTING STORM INITIATION. ASCENT
AND HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDING MID LEVEL JET ROTATING NEWD THROUGH THE
MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE STRENGTHENING SLY
LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. STORMS REMAIN MOSTLY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND ARE MOVING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR WHERE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES...WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AOA 300
M2/S2. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES AS THEY ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS. STORMS
MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A MIX OF LINES AND CELLS LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF BOW ECHOES AND DAMAGING WIND AS
WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES.


...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES...

STORMS CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM NWRN MS INTO NRN
LA. ACTIVITY IS ALSO DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS ERN
MS. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THIS REGION ARE NOT AS LARGE AS FARTHER
NORTH. STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT FROM MS INTO WRN AL WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...MID-UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INTO TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..DIAL.. 10/19/2007

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