Thoughts on the Season to date

[Derek Ortt]

Ace almost certainly will be a few points higher in the BT

As an aside, had Dean and Felix made landfall in the USA, everyone would be saying how destructive this season was. That is such a bad measure.

Lets go back to 1960 to see the number of cat 4 and 5s that have struck the USA

1960: Donna
1961: Carla
1969: Camielle
1989: Hugo
1992: Andrew, Iniki
1999: Lenny*
2004: Charley

*Lenny only brought category 2-3 winds to St Croix... the cat 4/5 winds were offshore in the eastern eyewall

[hurricanetrack]

But Dean and Felix did not hit the U.S. They were never much of a threat and who is to say that if they ventured more north that they would have had favorable conditions? We can turn this around and say, "what if Dean and Felix were both weak TS and not even hurricanes" then the season would REALLY be stinking, right?

I agree the total ACE will come up some, but my point is that once again we see a season that was not forecast correctly by anyone of the regulars, except maybe Frank2

I am not talking about landfalls necessarily here. The Atlantic Basin had trouble producing anything much beyond Dean and Felix despite what most of us thought would be the other reality: lots of strong hurricanes going somewhere. Instead, we had two and they both went in to the same general area. Other than that, we came up short on the hurricane days, intensities and numbers- those facts will remain unless something comes along between now and January 1, 2008.

(after 1/1/08, the 2007 list of names would not apply and anything that formed would have to be filed under 2008, right?)

[fci]

It seems that a lot of the younger members became "Tropics Aware" in 2005.
Thus, they think that it was typical which, as you said; is far from the truth.
Truth for MANY years was a season like 2007.

Wrong. Not many seasons have featured two category 5's, let alone so close together.

Edit:

Going by your logic... 2004 was a "pleasantly boring" (ugh...) year for anyone not in Florida, since three of the big storms hit "virtually the same place".

Not real fair for you to pull only part of my post for your quote.
I CLEARLY indicated that the season was normal EXCEPT for the Two Cat 5's and Humberto!
Plus I said "many years" were like 2007 so why would you specifically point out 2004. I did not chronicle all years and was speaking of most years.

Here is what I posted referencing the 2 cat 5's:
Pleasantly boring with just a few exceptions; the two cat 5 storms hitting virtually the same place and Humberto spinning up unexpectedly.

Cool with me to disagree but I would ask that you not pull the parts out of my post that clearly point out what you are accusing me of not mentioning. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very interesting reading tonight here.
2004 and 2005 were certainly anomalies. And so
is 2007 with the two monster category 5s
in the caribbean. That was quite an anomaly.
I think felix and dean strengthened becuase the
heat content and sea surface temperatures were
very high, and also because of atmosheric
shear conditions (lack of shear) at that time.

In any case, hopefully a cold front can pull up
tropical moisture and help the drought parched areas.

And hopefully areas hit can continue to recover. How
is the recovery going in Central America?

With 2 category 5s, there is catastrophic damage. I hope
central America can rebuild and recover.

I also saw something on TWC about New Orleans building
stronger levees. Hopefully they can build it strong so that a
katrina flood never happens again. Also they should add
more levees to the gulf coast for protection IMO.

Well that's my view of what should happen after these
seasons.

[Steve]

I'm going to add that there were additional, unclassified tropical surges that will never see any analysis. However, there was substantial flooding in East Texas early in the season and also some along the Gulf Coast with 2 or 3 systems after TD #10. I personally witnessed abundant tropical moisture this season including yesterday and today even if the triggering mechanisms were upper features or whatever in the Great Lakes. We don't get that every year, so despite any organized tropical issues, there was a plethora of non-organized moisture from waves, ULL's and a combination of both.

Steve

[Frank2]

There have been December storms in other years as well.

Yes, during my NHC days (Lili, 1984):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim01.gif

but, that's as rare as saying it'll be 90 degrees in New Jersey on December 15, so...

[fox13weather]

This season just reinforces what I have been saying for year. Pre-season hurricane predictions do more harm than good. Plus, they are just not accurate enough that they deserve much attention. Everyone should prepare as if THIS SEASON will be the one that a hurricane will impact your life. It is laughable when a mid season update is issued and the headline screams. HURRICANE FORECAST REDUCED!! Ok, so instead of predicting 8 hurricanes they are predicting 7. What is the freeking value?? The spring hurricane forecasts are a novelty act and nothing else...

[Steve]

>>Pre-season hurricane predictions do more harm than good.

I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there 13. They don't do any "harm" in my opinion. Some may argue that trumped up seasons that don't pan out cause complacency, but that's a red herring. It's no different from saying that fast food should be banned because some people get fat on it.

[HUC]

Well,well,well...and well.The knowledge is like the horizon:the more you walk,the more the horizon gone,and will always remain the horizon! So,let the scientists work,and made hypothesis,and criticised their hypothesis.That's the way science progress.
Forecasting is way different of predicting,and the comming huricane season is for me at that time more a predicting exercice than a forecast work...
I observed,and try to understand;and now,i try to understand if what i observed is in relation with global warming or not?? And despite there is or no a relation with global warming,i understand that i have to respect this earth,and be humble in face of mother nature. Someone know if there are others "earth" in the universe????So i try to preserve the only one that i know,my planet.
These are thoughts in a period of lack in storm activity...............

[fox13weather]

>>Pre-season hurricane predictions do more harm than good.

I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there 13. They don't do any "harm" in my opinion. Some may argue that trumped up seasons that don't pan out cause complacency, but that's a red herring. It's no different from saying that fast food should be banned because some people get fat on it.

Ok, what if the spring forecast was for a very quiet season due to a strong El Nino?? People are more apt not to work on a family plan and not buy supplies. The pre season predictions do more harm than good.

[Aquawind]

I hear ya Fox..

per another thread..

"I have a problem with any extended forecast if the insurance industry is using them and I do think the combination of hype from the 2005 season and the forecasters talk of increased activity for the next decade or so has cost us all. It's a forecast not concrete facts and to adjust the prices now could be total bunk like many of our 24 hour forecasts. The insurance industry will be taking the planet over unless we suffer these "forecasted" disasters. Once again these people have entire political and legal staff working everyday and finding every reason to only raise rates. They don't drop rates like gas prices unless forced and it would cost us plenty legally to try and make that happen. Throw in the GW unknowns and they have alot of manipulated numbers to prove they need to raise rates. "

Weather has no comparison..it's a freak of nature.

[AussieMark]

>>Pre-season hurricane predictions do more harm than good.

I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there 13. They don't do any "harm" in my opinion. Some may argue that trumped up seasons that don't pan out cause complacency, but that's a red herring. It's no different from saying that fast food should be banned because some people get fat on it.

Ok, what if the spring forecast was for a very quiet season due to a strong El Nino?? People are more apt not to work on a family plan and not buy supplies. The pre season predictions do more harm than good.

look at 1998 for example that season was predicted to be about average or just below average

it ended up yielding numbers of 14/10/3

[hurricanetrack]

I was thinking about 1992. Don't know if CSU was issuing forecasts back then but let's assume they were, and further, let's assume too that TSR and NOAA and AccuWx were all in the game back then too and that the media would report these forecasts as they do now.

What would the 1992 seasonal outlook call for? Hmm...

[Derek Ortt]

1992 was one of Dr Gray's better predictions

[jasons2k]

I have to back Steve on this one. We have had some great threads in previous seasons about this topic.

IMO, you have to start somewhere. Consider how many years philosophers, then scientists and later meterologists took to create the understanding we have today of forecasting short-term weather. Centuries. Now consider how long meterologists have been making seasonal hurricane predictions - maybe 20,30 years? The point is, relatively very few. A small fraction. This will improve over time; it only can from these early years. 20, 30, 100 even 500 years into the future, I think -- I know -- we'll do a much better job. Seasonal forecasting 500 years from now, if the earth makes it long, would boggle our minds.

Almost everybody, even the general population, knows to take them with a "grain of salt". In truth, what harm does it really do? Someone might be a little complacent if a seasonal prediction is low? We still have people on the TV cameras saying "I survived hurricane ________. Even thought it's a Cat. ____ I'll never evacuate. I've lived in _______ since _______."

It happens every season. I think we need to worry about those people first.

Anyway, if we're going to get any better with seasonal forecasts, we have to start at the beginning, doing the best we can with the knowledge and technology we have in 2007. Someday our grandkids will look back and laugh at our feeble attempts to do this. But if we don't start somewhere, we'll never get there.

[Rainband]

I agree with Fox13. If you live in Florida you would know why. The reason why our Insurance is so high is because of what was supposed to happen in 2006. The same goes with the oil prices. "Futures" start panic IMHO.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What is scary is the potential. The two systems that got into
the caribbean dean/felix both exploded to category 5.

[robert_88]

Very boring and dull for me. The amount of hurricanes that was anticipated turned out to be very low in the numbers for 2007. A bunch of weak tropical depressions and storms with hardly any hurricanes is nothing to get excited about. Ofcourse Dean and felix stoled the show and were the most spectacular named storms of 2007. Almost every invest the models showing development turned out to be a bust. The tracks were very boring as well with no unexpected twists and turns. I give this season on a scale of 1-10 a 3 only because of Dean and Felix. Can't wait for 2008.



P.S. No I don't have to witness a season like 2005 with total destruction and crazy amount of storms to declare it very exciting. This season was just plain unexciting and very boring for me. When you have been fortunate to track these fascinating storms for 22 years 2006 and 2007 will remain in your least favorites.

[DanKellFla]

This year, the models seemed a big off. Especially the CMC. Whatever tune-ups are done to a model after the season should be interesting. Not that I will be able to understand what they are. Hopefully, the data from this year will improve next years model runs.

[wxman57]

This year, the models seemed a bit off. Especially the CMC. Whatever tune-ups are done to a model after the season should be interesting. Not that I will be able to understand what they are. Hopefully, the data from this year will improve next years model runs.

The Canadian model (CMC) is NOT a tropical model, and it probably won't be tweaked during the off-season to do better with tropical systems (though I can't guarantee that). The CMC appears to develop any upper-level feature into a TC. Obviously, its physics are meant for northern-latitude cold-core storms, not tropical systems. As for the other models, I noticed no change from previous seasons. GFS always over-forecasts development, though it didn't do so as much in 2007. The NAM/WRF (not HWRF) should never be used for tropical systems. I believe the folks operating the GFDL are done tweaking it. They're working on the HWRF now.

What models did you perceive as being "off"?