Late Oct/Early Nov development?

[cycloneye]

00z GFS



The 00z run shows low forming in Western Caribbean and starts moving ENE at the end of run.

06z GFS



The 06z GFS run shows the developing low in Western Caribbean by the 26th of October but as it deepens,it moves NE crossing Cuba.

[caneman]

Looking like the end of the season to me. That is one huge ULL dominating the Caribb and rolling WEst.

[cycloneye]

No big changes about the development of low in Western Caribbean.

10/15/07 12z EURO



10/16/07 00z GFS



10/16/07 12z GFS



10/16/07 12z EURO



10/16/07 18z GFS



10/17/07 00z GFS



10/17/07 06z GFS

Continues to show Caribbean development

10/17/07 12z GFS



10/17/07 12z EURO



10/17/07 18z GFS



Nothing of importance in this 18z run.The 00z and 12z runs have more data than the 06z and 18z runs.If the 00z and 12z runs dont show anything,then it will be capute to the season.

10/18/07 12z NOGAPS



A new model joins the combo of something in the SW Caribbean.

10/18/07 18z GFS



GFS is on again for something forming in the Western Caribbean.

10/19/07 00z GFS



No Western Caribbean but formation is in subtropical Atlantic.

10/19/07 00z NOGAPS



NOGAPS continues with a Caribbean scenario.

10/19/07 12z NOGAPS



The 19th of October 12z NOGAPS conrinue to show Caribbean development at 132 hours.

10/19/07 12z EURO



The latest 19th of October 12z EURO shows weak low in Caribbean at 144 hours.

10/19/07 18z GFS



GFS continues bullish with the Caribbean stuff in its 18z run.

10/20/07 00z GFS



It shows a couple of lows but not deepening much.

10/20/07 00z NOGAPS



NOGAPS continues to show something in the Caribbean.

10/20/07 00z EURO



The latest 00z for the 20th of October of EURO shows a low in Caribbean.

10/20/07 12z GFS



Nothing of significance in this run.Only a few lows scattered thru the Caribbean and Atlanric.

10/20/07 12z UKMET



For the first time the UKMET model shows something in the Caribbean and in 144 hours.

10/20/07 12z NOGAPS



The 20th of October 12z NOGAPS shows a weak system in Caribbean.

10/20/07 18z GFS



This 18z run doesnt have Caribbean stuff,but has some lows that deepen a little in the subtropical Atlantic.

10/21/07 00z GFS



The 00z GFS of 21 of October has Caribbean low,and another in Central Atlantic.

10/21/07 00z NOGAPS



The latest NOGAPS for the 21rst of October has something forming from a tail end of front off the East Coast of .U.S.

10/21/07 00z UKMET



The latest UKMET continues to show Caribbean stuff.

10/21/07 12z NOGAPS



The 12z NOGAPS for the 21rst of October shows Caribbean action.

10/21/07 12z GFS



The 12z GFS for the 21rst of October is all over the place with lows scattered in the basin with two main ones in the subtropical Atlantic and the Caribbean.

10/21/07 12z EURO



The latest EURO shows weak low in Caribbean.

[whereverwx]

Other than to raise post counts, what purpose do these model topics serve? We already know that the models perform horribly far out. Therefore, like personal forecasts, it would make sense if you guys were to put a disclamir up for them too.

[stormchazer]

Other than to raise post counts, what purpose do these model topics serve? We already know that the models perform horribly far out. Therefore, like personal forecasts, it would make sense if you guys were to put a disclamir up for them too.

Perhaps because this is a Forum where we discuss Tropical Weather, including potential development as well as Active Cyclones. I am sorry but if we did not discuss the potential development that models show, we would spend half the year sitting on our hands waiting for Invest. Also, though models may be poor with actual development, they can give a good indications on future patterns that could lead to development. As for raising post counts, it did not keep you from posting and adding to the count .

Anyways, when it gets slow like it is now, model outputs is about all there is to talk about.
My opinion of course.

[cycloneye]

Other than to raise post counts, what purpose do these model topics serve? We already know that the models perform horribly far out. Therefore, like personal forecasts, it would make sense if you guys were to put a disclamir up for them too.

First,I dont post to raise counts,but to colaborate with this weather community with important information that I always post,not oneliners without importance. As a matter of fact,I am posting the model runs in only one or two posts of this thread to not make a new post for every run.Second,there is no need of a disclaimer to post model runs as they are part of official information that NCEP and other institutions issue every 6 hours the model runs.

[cycloneye]

Well,I am becoming a until I see it in reallity I will not believe it person as the Atlantic Tropics continue tranquil.With many false alarms during the season,lets see if what GFS and the EURO are showing in their runs since last sunday is the last gas of the 2007 season? or is a non starter.The runs are being posted four posts above this one.

[eaglegirl]

I've been watching something for close to 48 hours hoping someone might mention it. No mention of it yet and while I am not expecting anything, my curiosity remains.

There has been a small counterclockwise naked swirl apparent in the water vapor loops.

I didn't note the coordinates... so these are approximate guesstimates. Close to 48 hours ago, it was near 70N 15W and it appeared to move westward. Since then, it has appeared to have moved more northward and is currently near 80N 18W.

You can see it in the water vapor loop here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Again, I am not expecting anything out of it. Just curious if anyone else has seen this and might be willing to comment about it.

Thanks in advance.

[boca]

Its an ULL thats all moving N of due west. Nothing tropical out of this one.

[Frank2]

There's almost always some chance of development in the southwest Caribbean year-'round - I've seen lows form down there in February (not that they can develop if they move out of that area)...

In fact, I was once told (at the NHC) that there's a small "peak" in activity during the first week or two of February in that same area...

Have a good off-season, everyone...

Frank

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFS Continues its WC Bias..

[HURRICANELONNY]

All I know is it shows a nice front coming throgh next week around Tuesday/Wednesday. Hope it happens. I'm sick of the heat.

Well there sure about the front. Ya right.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

[HURRICANELONNY]

Nice GFS run. To bad it won't happen. I just hope it cools down. If the run is even close to that a week from now. I'll eat my shorts.

[flwxwatcher]

I guess we will find out soon enough. The GFS and some members of the GFS Ensembles have been for several days showing development in the Caribbean for late october. I know JB is onboard for a late season storm in the Caribbean. Lets see what happens by November 1st .Myself, I will believe it when I see it.

[HURRICANELONNY]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
GONE

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

This is the most promising GFS I have seen in months!!

Not 1 but 2 relativly strong storms!

[cycloneye]

Now the timeframe is not over 200 hours as the days continue to pass.NOGAPS,GFS and EURO show Caribbean development.Go 14 posts above this one to see the latest model runs.Thank you DESTRUCTION5 for posting todays 12z GFS.

[hurricanetrack]

Might see it happen this time...it would be kind of cool so long as no one gets hurt...know what I mean?

[HURAKAN]

If we don't get a named storm in October, it will be the first time since 93-94 that we don't get a named storm in this month in two consecutive years.

Interestingly between 93 & 94 there were 15 named storms. Just in 2007 we have had 13 named storms!

Just an interesting fact.

[cycloneye]

If we don't get a named storm in October, it will be the first time since 93-94 that we don't get a named storm in this month in two consecutive years.

Interestingly between 93 & 94 there were 15 named storms. Just in 2007 we have had 13 named storms!

Just an interesting fact.

Very interesting stat there.It would be amazing if October goes without a named storm.But maybe,maybe that could change if the latest global model runs verifie.Check them out at this page 17 posts above from this one.