A Volcano Threatens, But the Locals Don’t Want to Budge

[lurkey]

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/19/a-volcano-threatens-but-the-locals-dont-want-to-budge/

A Volcano Threatens, But the Locals Don’t Want to Budge

By Patrick J. Lyons

Tags: indonesia, natural disasters, volcanoes
Villagers evacuating from the vicinity of Mount Kelud in Java.A handful of villagers boarded a truck on Thursday to be evacuated from the area within 6 miles of Mount Kelud in Java, which scientists believe may be starting to erupt. Thousands of others refused to leave. (Sigit Pamungkas/Reuters)

Scientists are increasingly sure that Mount Kelud, one of the world’s most dangerous volcanoes, may be about to blow. Days ago, the Indonesian government raised the alert level to maximum and told people who live on its slopes to clear out. But tens of thousands defied the evacuation order and stayed put, or left and then came back again — to the point that today, armed police were forcing thousands of people off the mountain at gunpoint.

Why do people insist on staying in harm’s way?

It would not seem to be that the warning signs are too subtle or that people are being asked to take the scientists’ word for the danger. The mountain has been rumbling and creaking with dozens of earthquakes every day, the water temperature in the crater lake is rising sharply, poisonous gases are seeping out and overcoming people — five have had to be hospitalized — and the ground at the top of the mountain is noticeably rising, tilting and changing shape. None of that guarantees an eruption, but the odds look pretty high.

And there’s nothing implausible about the idea that Mount Kelud might erupt and kill a lot of people. The mountain has done that a lot, including an episode in 1990 that left at least 30 people dead and one in 1919 that killed thousands. And Indonesia has more than a hundred other active volcanoes, so eruptions are not exactly an unfamiliar phenomenon.

That, actually, is part of the problem: Indonesians have considerable experience with volcano-warning evacuations, and much of it isn’t good.

The mountain is about 55 miles from Suribaya, Indonesia’s second-largest city, on the densely populated island of Java. Volcanic soil tends to be rich and fertile, so there is plenty of incentive for rural Javanese to live on the slopes of a volcano and grow pineapples and coffee beans and sugar cane, despite the chance that it will erupt some day. When that day looks nigh, farmers hate to leave their crops and livestock behind — especially since past evacuation orders have been spottily enforced, and looting has been a significant problem. The government rarely pays any compensation for their losses.

There is also the contempt born of familiarity: people who have lived through one disaster often feel they know how to ride out the next one. From Reuters, quoting Indonesia’s leading volcano expert (who, like many countrymen, uses just one name):

Some villagers who survived the 1990 eruption have said they plan to shelter under tables and tarpaulins rather than leave their homes.

“Many people experienced this volcano, and they say they will stay in their houses because they are not scared,” said Surono, although he fears such measures would prove inadequate if Mount Kelud showers the area with hot ash.

Sounds a lot like what happens in Florida and the Gulf Coast when a major hurricane is bearing down, doesn’t it? There are always some people who refuse to evacuate, and just board up and sit tight, happier to take their chances with Mother Nature than with their fellow man. Some days you can see what they mean.

In Indonesia, the government has also been working to minimize the harm that volcanic eruptions do, with steps like draining much of the water from crater lakes, so it won’t be there to cascade down the mountain as a flood of boiling mud, and digging trenches on the mountainside that can channel and divert debris flows — and in the process, making it easier to rationalize defying an evacuation order.

“There have been many fewer fatalities, so they’ve been successful,” Lee Siebert, a volcanologist at the Smithsonian, told The Associated Press about the government’s mitigation efforts. “But it’s still a volcano.”

[HURAKAN]

People will always be people, doesn't matter if you live in a poor country or in a rich country. Nonetheless, the decision. to leave your house in you are poor and live in a poor country is a very difficult one because the only thing you have is that house and the little things inside. Leaving it opens a window to raiders and burglars. However, you need if you hope to continue living in the house you need to first continue living and with a volcano near you for me it will be a really easy decision. LEAVE AS SOON AS YOU CAN.

[arkess7]

I agree It would be hard to leave your home if you didnt have the means too. And I aint rich......but if it was me and my situation me and my daughter would be headed out of there! Praying for the best!!