Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

[WindRunner]

Not quite . . . I know we in Albany are expecting the front and associated convection around 06z tomorrow, with some pre-frontral garbage around the middle of the afternoon . . . the convection really races out ahead of the front each night, and then slowly dies off come mid-morning (or at least that's how it happened today . . . err, yesterday). I think I saw the remnants of the first day's convection in far eastern OH when the front was back on the Mississippi River early this afternoon, for a comparison. I'm not exactly sure where you are in southern Ontario, but you'll probably be getting the main front mid to late afternoon . . . estimate for yourself here and here if you want. The storms probably won't be at their worst at that point, but you'll probably (again, depending on exactly where you are) get a decent bit of convection.

[Cyclenall]

Not quite . . . I know we in Albany are expecting the front and associated convection around 06z tomorrow, with some pre-frontral garbage around the middle of the afternoon . . . the convection really races out ahead of the front each night, and then slowly dies off come mid-morning (or at least that's how it happened today . . . err, yesterday). I think I saw the remnants of the first day's convection in far eastern OH when the front was back on the Mississippi River early this afternoon, for a comparison. I'm not exactly sure where you are in southern Ontario, but you'll probably be getting the main front mid to late afternoon . . . estimate for yourself here and here if you want. The storms probably won't be at their worst at that point, but you'll probably (again, depending on exactly where you are) get a decent bit of convection.

I think I know what you mean because I've seen this with other outbreaks before. I do believe there will be a lot of rain overnight still.

[CrazyC83]

It seems that the numbers have come down for today. But will that hold up?

[CrazyC83]

Even up here in northern Ontario, the temperature is 69 and the dewpoint is 62 right now...

[CrazyC83]

Tornadoes confirmed so far: 7 from Wednesday, 5 from Thursday (1 EF3, 2 EF2, 6 EF1, 3 EF0)

By state:

Arkansas - 1
Florida - 1
Indiana - 1
Kentucky - 2
Michigan - 1
Mississippi - 1
Missouri - 5

[WindRunner]

We had a low of 65 here in Albany last night . . . compare that to our average high for today of 60, and it's certainly looking interesting. 15z ob came in at 74/65, but overcast. That may be our biggest saving grace today.

[CrazyC83]

Best chance of tornadoes this afternoon seems to be farther north...

[CrazyC83]

Now getting thunderstorms in my area.

[CrazyC83]

000
NOUS43 KPAH 191714
PNSPAH
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-192000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1214 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2007


...PRESS CONFERENCE SET FOR 4PM THIS AFTERNOON IN OWENSBORO KY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN PADUCAH WILL HOST A PRESS
CONFERENCE AT 4PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON AT THE FISCAL COURTHOUSE IN
OWENSBORO KENTUCKY TO DISCUSS THE PRELIMINARY FINDINGS OF THE
STORM DAMAGE SURVEY IN MCLEAN AND DAVIESS COUNTIES THUS FAR.

THIS PRESS CONFERENCE IS A PARTNERSHIP OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND DAVIESS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

$$

POOLE

[WindRunner]

I know its early still . . . but with all this cloudiness, I don't see anything potent forming north of the Mason-Dixon line, thought NC might end up being the northernmost extent of the convection at this point . . . the rest of the East Coast sure isn't getting heated.

[WindRunner]

Hmm . .. this day is a bust.

Funnt thing though is the SVR out for Schuylkill/Northumberland/Columbia doesn't even have any lightning associated with it . . . so a severe thunderstorm without the thunder is certainly and interesting idea.

[CrazyC83]

Definitely a bust today. No daytime heating to get anything initiated.

Last count had 23 confirmed tornadoes (7 on Wednesday, 16 yesterday)

[Category 5]

Report released on last nights tornado that prompted the Tornado Emergency. A strong EF-3.

000
NOUS43 KIWX 191940
PNSIWX
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025-200745-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...SURVEY COMPLETED IN MARSHALL...KOSCIUSKO AND ELKHART COUNTIES
OF TORNADO DAMAGE...

DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TORNADO BEGAN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
12B ROAD AND GUMWOOD RD...JUST WEST OF BOURBON. AT THIS
POINT...SHINGLE AND SMALL TREE AND TREE BRANCH DAMAGE WAS
FOUND...CONSISTENT WITH AN EF0. AS THE STORM RAPIDLY MOVED
NORTHEAST THE CIRCULATION INTENSIFIED AS IT TRACKED BETWEEN BREMEN
AND BOURBON. SEVERAL STRUCTURES...TREES AND POWER LINES SUFFERED
DAMAGE IN THIS AREA WITH THE INTENSITY REACHING HIGH END EF2 JUST
PRIOR TO CROSSING INTO KOSCIUSKO COUNTY NEAR 800 N AND THE COUNTY
LINE WHERE THE WIDTH OF THE TORNADO INCREASED TO AROUND 1/2 MILE.
8 HOMES WERE DESTROYED WITH 9 HOMES SUFFERING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN
NORTHWESTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTY. AS THE STORM MOVED INTO THE
SOUTH PARTS OF NAPPANEE THE CIRCULATION BEGAN TO TIGHTEN AND
INTENSIFY WITH THE TORNADO REACHING ITS PEAK OF STRONG EF3
INTENSITY JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 AND COUNTY ROAD 7 NEAR THE
GULFSTREAM MANUFACTURING PLANT AND CONTINUED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
BLACKSTONE SUBDIVISION. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE WAS ACROSS THIS AREA...INCLUDING
OVER 100 HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED AND SEVERAL BUSINESSES
INCLUDING SEVERAL FAST FOOD RESTAURANTS...FACTORIES AND OTHER
STRUCTURES. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WERE ESTIMATED TO HAVE REACHED
AROUND 165 MPH...THE UPPER WIND LIMIT OF AN EF3 TORNADO. THE
TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST...EAST OF NAPPANEE...AND
WEAKENED TO A WIDTH OF 200 YARDS AT THE TIME THE TORNADO LIFTED
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 46 AND 17...JUST WEST OF NEW
PARIS IN ELKHART COUNTY. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 20
MILES WITH A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF ONE HALF MILE AND A PEAK INTENSITY
OF EF3 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE.

MORE DETAILED DAMAGE SURVEY INFORMATION...MAPS AND PICTURES WILL
BE POSTED ON THE NORTHERN INDIANA NWS HOME PAGE...WHICH CAN BE
FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX...OVER THIS WEEKEND.

.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OTHER SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

A REPORT OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WAS RECEIVED THURSDAY EVENING FROM
A TRAINED SPOTTER IN SIDNEY. LOCAL OFFICALS INVESTIGATED THE AREA
AND WERE UNABLE TO FIND ANY DAMAGE...SO NO NWS SURVEY WAS
COMPLETED OF THE AREA. RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THAT PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERAL TORNADO
WARNINGS. HOWEVER...NO OTHER TORNADO CONFIRMATIONS WERE RECEIVED.

$$

HOLSTEN/LASHLEY/FISHER

[HarlequinBoy]

The damage in Edmondson, AR was found to be non-tornadic, but the microburst had winds of up to 100 mph!


Also WFO Birmingham and Huntsville have confirmed a tornado.

[WindRunner]

For tonight, I see an outflow boundary heading SW down the Potomac towards DC, and that's firing some storms back on the western end of the boundary in Northern Virginia. A couple of SVRs are out in PA, but nothing worthwhile as far as I see.

[CrazyC83]

Now 29 tornadoes confirmed so far (22 yesterday).

One thing to note: it is certainly possible (particularly in more rural areas) that there were additional tornadoes that were not reported.

[Category 5]

It just broke loose here, winds gusting over 30mph.

[CrazyC83]

Current findings:

40 tornadoes total confirmed (9 on Wednesday, 31 on Thursday)

EF0 - 9, EF1 - 18, EF2 - 11, EF3 - 2

Alabama - 2
Arkansas - 1
Florida - 1
Indiana - 4
Kentucky - 11
Michigan - 10
Mississippi - 5
Missouri - 6

[Category 5]

The front passed through last night.

The results? One of the nicest days of the year.

[RL3AO]

31 confirmed yesterday? Isn't that more than reported?