Severe Tropical Storm KAJIKI (0719)

[HURAKAN]

Typhoon, anyone!!!!

[P.K.]

Upgraded.

WTPQ20 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0719 KAJIKI (0719)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 21.0N 141.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 25.2N 140.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 211200UTC 29.2N 143.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 221200UTC 35.4N 153.1E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Coredesat]

Interesting that the JMA is not forecasting typhoon strength, given Kajiki's current appearance.

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

Up to 60kts already and now forecast to become a typhoon.

WTPQ20 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0719 KAJIKI (0719)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 21.4N 141.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 25.0N 139.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 211800UTC 29.6N 142.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 221800UTC 36.9N 154.1E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

2100 update from JTWC pegs it at a typhoon, 75 knots going to 100. Typhoon winds out 30 nm in each quadrant.

[HURAKAN]

First Visible:


Beautiful typhoon.

[HURAKAN]

Still a STS according to JMA:

N21°35'(21.6°)
E140°55'(140.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)

[WindRunner]

2100 update from JTWC pegs it at a typhoon, 75 knots going to 100. Typhoon winds out 30 nm in each quadrant.

Not sure where you got that from, but the 2100z update peaks it at 65kts, as the 21z (an intermediate update) is no different than th 18z forecast. Forecasts typically change only on the 00/06/12/18z updates.

WTPQ20 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0719 KAJIKI (0719)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 21.6N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 25.4N 140.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 211800UTC 29.6N 142.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 221800UTC 36.9N 154.1E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

RJTD up to T5.0 so this will certainly be a typhoon in the update in 30 min or so.

[Chacor]

Up to 75 kt.

765
WTPQ20 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0719 KAJIKI (0719) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 22.0N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 26.0N 140.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 220000UTC 31.2N 144.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 230000UTC 39.4N 159.8E 400NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Chacor]

2100 update from JTWC pegs it at a typhoon, 75 knots going to 100. Typhoon winds out 30 nm in each quadrant.

Not sure where you got that from, but the 2100z update peaks it at 65kts, as the 21z (an intermediate update) is no different than th 18z forecast. Forecasts typically change only on the 00/06/12/18z updates.

He meant the JTWC forecast I'm fairly certain

[CrazyC83]

These typhoons tend to often get stronger than forecast for some reason...

[Typhoon Hunter]

This makes an interesting read. It's the latest sat bulletin which arrived in my inbox:

400
WWPN20 KNES 200336

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
WEST PACIFIC OCEAN MTSAT VIS/IRDAY
.
OCTOBER 20 2007 0230Z
.
22.5N 140.6E T5.5/5.5/D3.0/24HRS KAJIKI (19W)
.
PAST POSITIONS....20.9N 141.5E 19/1430Z IRNIGHT
19.4N 143.2E 19/0230Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS....KAJIKI CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP. WMG EYE WRAPPED
IN WHITE YIELDS AN UNREP DT OF 7.0. MET IS 5.0. PT IS 5.5. FT OF
5.5 EXCEEDS DVORAK CONSTRAINTS BUT BASED ON EXTREME RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AND WELL DEFINED WMG EYE..
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 20/1000Z.
.
EFFECTIVE 0000 UTC 01 DECEMBER 2007 THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN
WILL CHANGE TO CONFORM WITH THAT FOUND IN TPPN10 PGTW. FOR
DETAILS SEE HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/NEWFORMAT.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
BANKS
.
NNNN

[Coredesat]

Increase of 3.0 in 24 hours? Unreal!

Kajiki has a very impressive structure at the moment:





I wouldn't be surprised if it were indeed much stronger, as that SAB bulletin would seem to indicate.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0719 KAJIKI (0719)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 23.3N 140.6E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 27.1N 141.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 220600UTC 32.9N 147.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 230600UTC 40.4N 163.7E 400NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Coredesat]

577
TPPN10 PGTW 200600

A. TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI)

B. 20/0530Z

C. 23.3N/8

D. 140.5E/0

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (20/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURRND BY CMG YIELDS
AN UNREP DT OF 7.5. MET IS AN UNREP 5.0. PT IS AN UNREP
5.5. DBO COMBINATION OF ALL DATA AND STT YIELDS A FT OF
6.0.

[Sanibel]

Right over Iwo To island at 105KTS.