Scientists a step closer to steering hurricanes
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Scientists a step closer to steering hurricanes
Scientists a step closer to steering hurricanes
By Tim Shipman in Washington
Last Updated: 1:07am BST 21/10/2007
Scientists have made a breakthrough in man's desire to control the forces of nature – unveiling plans to weaken hurricanes and steer them off course, to prevent tragedies such as Hurricane Katrina.
The damage done to New Orleans in 2005 has spurred two rival teams of climate experts, in America and Israel, to redouble their efforts to enable people to play God with the weather.
Under one scheme, aircraft would drop soot into the near-freezing cloud at the top of a hurricane, causing it to warm up and so reduce wind speeds. Computer simulations of the forces at work in the most violent storms have shown that even small changes can affect their paths – enabling them to be diverted from major cities.
But the hurricane modifiers are fighting more than the weather. Lawyers warn that diverting a hurricane from one city to save life and property could result in multi-billion dollar lawsuits from towns that bear the brunt instead. Hurricane Katrina caused about $41 billion in damage to New Orleans.
Hurricanes form when air warmed over the ocean rises to meet the cool upper atmosphere. The heat turns to kinetic energy, producing a spiral of wind and rain. The greater the temperature differences between top and bottom, and the narrower the eye of the hurricane, the faster it blows.
Moshe Alamaro, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), told The Sunday Telegraph of his plans to "paint" the tops of hurricanes black by scattering carbon particles – either soot or black particles from the manufacture of tyres – from aircraft flying above the storms. The particles would absorb heat from the sun, leading to changes in the airflows within the storm. Satellites could also heat the cloud tops by beaming microwaves from space.
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"If they're done in the right place at the right time they can affect the strength of the hurricane," Mr Alamaro said.
The theory has so far been tested only in computer simulation by Mr Alamaro's colleague, Ross Hoffman. Mr Alamaro said: "With small changes to this side or that side of the hurricane we can nudge it and change its track. We're starting with computer simulations, then will hopefully experiment on a small weather system."
Last month scientists at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem announced that they had simulated the effect of sowing clouds with microscopic dust to cool the hurricane's base, also weakening it. The dust would attract water but would form droplets too small to fall as rain. Instead, they would rise and evaporate, cooling hot air at the hurricane base.
In findings presented at a conference in Trieste, Italy, the team led by Daniel Rosenfeld demonstrated that dust dropped into the lower part of Hurricane Katrina would have reduced wind speeds and diverted its course.
The MIT team has now hired a professor of risk management to advise on steps necessary to protect themselves from legal action by communities affected if a hurricane is diverted. It is pressing for changes to US law and for an international treaty to settle possible disputes between neighbouring countries.
Mr Alamaro said: "The social and legal issues are daunting. If a hurricane were coming towards Miami with the potential to cause damage and kill people, and we diverted it, another town or village hit by it would sue us. They'll say the hurricane is no longer an act of God, but that we caused it."
By Tim Shipman in Washington
Last Updated: 1:07am BST 21/10/2007
Scientists have made a breakthrough in man's desire to control the forces of nature – unveiling plans to weaken hurricanes and steer them off course, to prevent tragedies such as Hurricane Katrina.
The damage done to New Orleans in 2005 has spurred two rival teams of climate experts, in America and Israel, to redouble their efforts to enable people to play God with the weather.
Under one scheme, aircraft would drop soot into the near-freezing cloud at the top of a hurricane, causing it to warm up and so reduce wind speeds. Computer simulations of the forces at work in the most violent storms have shown that even small changes can affect their paths – enabling them to be diverted from major cities.
But the hurricane modifiers are fighting more than the weather. Lawyers warn that diverting a hurricane from one city to save life and property could result in multi-billion dollar lawsuits from towns that bear the brunt instead. Hurricane Katrina caused about $41 billion in damage to New Orleans.
Hurricanes form when air warmed over the ocean rises to meet the cool upper atmosphere. The heat turns to kinetic energy, producing a spiral of wind and rain. The greater the temperature differences between top and bottom, and the narrower the eye of the hurricane, the faster it blows.
Moshe Alamaro, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), told The Sunday Telegraph of his plans to "paint" the tops of hurricanes black by scattering carbon particles – either soot or black particles from the manufacture of tyres – from aircraft flying above the storms. The particles would absorb heat from the sun, leading to changes in the airflows within the storm. Satellites could also heat the cloud tops by beaming microwaves from space.
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"If they're done in the right place at the right time they can affect the strength of the hurricane," Mr Alamaro said.
The theory has so far been tested only in computer simulation by Mr Alamaro's colleague, Ross Hoffman. Mr Alamaro said: "With small changes to this side or that side of the hurricane we can nudge it and change its track. We're starting with computer simulations, then will hopefully experiment on a small weather system."
Last month scientists at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem announced that they had simulated the effect of sowing clouds with microscopic dust to cool the hurricane's base, also weakening it. The dust would attract water but would form droplets too small to fall as rain. Instead, they would rise and evaporate, cooling hot air at the hurricane base.
In findings presented at a conference in Trieste, Italy, the team led by Daniel Rosenfeld demonstrated that dust dropped into the lower part of Hurricane Katrina would have reduced wind speeds and diverted its course.
The MIT team has now hired a professor of risk management to advise on steps necessary to protect themselves from legal action by communities affected if a hurricane is diverted. It is pressing for changes to US law and for an international treaty to settle possible disputes between neighbouring countries.
Mr Alamaro said: "The social and legal issues are daunting. If a hurricane were coming towards Miami with the potential to cause damage and kill people, and we diverted it, another town or village hit by it would sue us. They'll say the hurricane is no longer an act of God, but that we caused it."
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- cycloneye
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Re: Scientists a step closer to steering hurricanes
I only have five words for this:
Dont Mess with Mother Nature
Dont Mess with Mother Nature
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Re: Scientists a step closer to steering hurricanes
The political fallout that would be associated with scientists and government agencies trying to divert storms away from major cities..like new orleans...would be enormous.
It would be suicide for the party in power that ok'd this try and convince, say, Biloxi...and its voters... that they should be the intended target instead...or try convincing environmentalists that steering a monster storm into the endangered Louisiana bayou was the right thing to do.
And what if the diverted target is a predominantly low-income minority area that was ravaged to save the big city...sounds a little bit too much like the cries during Katrina that the levees were intentionally breached in the 9th Ward to spare Jefferson Parish or something like that.
Not to mention the potential environmental impact of dropping soot into the storm! It's not like we are talking about a bag of mulch...how many cubic miles of soot would rain down onto the oceans and land?
Not going to happen...the politics would overpower and outweigh the science.
It would be suicide for the party in power that ok'd this try and convince, say, Biloxi...and its voters... that they should be the intended target instead...or try convincing environmentalists that steering a monster storm into the endangered Louisiana bayou was the right thing to do.
And what if the diverted target is a predominantly low-income minority area that was ravaged to save the big city...sounds a little bit too much like the cries during Katrina that the levees were intentionally breached in the 9th Ward to spare Jefferson Parish or something like that.
Not to mention the potential environmental impact of dropping soot into the storm! It's not like we are talking about a bag of mulch...how many cubic miles of soot would rain down onto the oceans and land?
Not going to happen...the politics would overpower and outweigh the science.
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Re: Scientists a step closer to steering hurricanes
I can just see them trying to re-direct a hurricane once it enters or forms in the Carib or the GOM..send it WHERE??..or the Atlantic? headed to NC and accidentally sent to Bermuda or Florida??
Like the previous poster said Don't mess with mother nature!!*
*Anyone remembers the old peanut butter commercial (I think?) with that punch line??
Like the previous poster said Don't mess with mother nature!!*
*Anyone remembers the old peanut butter commercial (I think?) with that punch line??
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*sigh*
Man learns from history that man learns NOTHING from history...
First of all, we can't control hurricanes. Simple as that. We can mess with them, suuuure. But after we mess with them, we have really no idea what to expect. There is a reason Project Stormfury was abandoned. I guess they forgot about it...
Second, if we could "control" hurricanes, we most certainly shouldn't. It is a bad, bad, BAD idea to go screwin around with weather. Ugh... I don't even want to discuss it anymore, because it's only going to make me angry...
I'm still shocked at the way scientists are still trying to figure this out. Prepare, evacuate, recover. I'm sorry, but that's ALL we can do. If we sit around waiting for some "miracle Cane-Away" product, then we're all going to be hugely dissappionted. It will never happen, I wish they would accept that and move on to better forecasting them, instead.
Man learns from history that man learns NOTHING from history...
First of all, we can't control hurricanes. Simple as that. We can mess with them, suuuure. But after we mess with them, we have really no idea what to expect. There is a reason Project Stormfury was abandoned. I guess they forgot about it...
Second, if we could "control" hurricanes, we most certainly shouldn't. It is a bad, bad, BAD idea to go screwin around with weather. Ugh... I don't even want to discuss it anymore, because it's only going to make me angry...
I'm still shocked at the way scientists are still trying to figure this out. Prepare, evacuate, recover. I'm sorry, but that's ALL we can do. If we sit around waiting for some "miracle Cane-Away" product, then we're all going to be hugely dissappionted. It will never happen, I wish they would accept that and move on to better forecasting them, instead.
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- terstorm1012
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Re: Scientists a step closer to steering hurricanes
I would really like to read the actual paper behind this "media report."
Media, especially in the sciences, has an annoying habit of being really, really stupid thus causing more confusion to what "scientists" say. Science "journalism" is a joke the world over.
Media, especially in the sciences, has an annoying habit of being really, really stupid thus causing more confusion to what "scientists" say. Science "journalism" is a joke the world over.
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- hurricanetrack
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I was going to post something on this after watching a Canadian Broadcasting show last night on controling hurricanes. They idea shown was to usea a fleet of ships to burn pwroleum products in front of a storm producing a cloud of Carbon Black. The particulate mater would be sucked into the storm causing to to unravel, weakening it and possibley causing it to change direction. They interviewed Dr. Gray who seemed to think this was the best idea he had heard of for controlling hurricanes. Wonder how many ships burning oil would be required? Wonder if we really know enough about the dangers of Carbon Black?
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