Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

12z CMC



Above is the 12z CMC that has a hurricane in the NW Caribbean.

[bvigal]

After watching this thing for 7 hours, I must admit, I'm impressed. Shear being so strong, I'd expect all convection to be miles from center of circulation, but that's not the case. It is only exposed for a short distance from the center, with plenty of showers over the eastern half.

Whoops, I got busy looking at ship reports and didn't post this. For sure most ships knew this was brewing, almost no reports from the area of this low.

Hi Barbara! The low is easy to see on visible loop, about 80 miles north of you and just slightly west. As I said above, due to shear nearly all the big clouds are NE and SE quads.

(was looking for the wave hello smiley, so jumping the sprinkler will have to do, LOL)

[cycloneye]

You can see the low,and as bvigal said,convection is not far behind despite the heavy shear.

[msbee]

I'm confused .
the title of this thread states this is near BVI. But the convection on the satellite looks like it is still east of us.
and BVI is west of us.
I am wondering if it is indeed going SW and if it will cross our area before it reaches BVI...It sure looks like it.
The problem for any of the islands with these systems is even when they don't develop, they can cause serious flooding, particularly for an island like PR with all its mountains.
And this seems to be very slow moving.

Hi Barbara.The title says near British Virgin Islands refers to the low pressure where is centered,not the whole convection mass of showers and squalls.The title will change a lot as the low moves.Tonight for example it may say,Just North of San Juan.

Thanks Luis and thanks Gloria also.

[cycloneye]

The first GFDL plots for 90L:

206
WHXX04 KWBC 251733
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 25

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.9 63.5 300./ 6.0
6 18.3 64.6 243./11.9
12 18.4 66.1 272./14.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 12 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


Yeah,it passes over my house in that track.

[ronjon]

00Z Euro generally predicts wind shear less than 10 kts from about 48 hrs through 168 hrs as this low pressure system tracks from south of Hispanola to the NW caribbean. Could see some development in 2-3 days.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[cycloneye]

00Z Euro generally predicts wind shear less than 10 kts from about 48 hrs through 168 hrs as this low pressure system tracks from south of Hispanola to the NW caribbean. Could see some development in 2-3 days.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Lets see if changes occur in less than two hours,when the 12z comes out.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just watched the first Bastardi video in about a week. He says the ducks are on the pond, and thinks Euro is generally close. 2 days ago he said he believed the WC was 5 to 10 days from a TC.


He did point out, that pre-development, 3 times this year the Euro predicted a major hurricane, and while each time a TC did form in area in question (he mentioned Erin and Barry), the Euro hasn't yet correctly predicted a major TC from the longer range.

Also opined as to why global warming is not to blame for SoCal fires, as reason for dry weather has been persistent cooler than normal water temps offshore SoCal.

[bucman1]

The scary thing is one day the CMC is going to be correct -so we need to take all models seriously if we decide to keep using them.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET



UKMET shows NW Caribbean development.

[caribepr]

Here on Culebra we just had about a 20 minute white out of rain ONLY on the east side of Ensenada Honda. I closed the cart, because heavy clouds were all around (and hey, it's enough work already!). I'm looking out the window from the top of the hill facing the bay and the rain has moved off to the north...even though the winds are coming from the north...weird stuff. Sailors were talkng about heading to Jost for the Halloween Cat Fight regatta (boat thing) as we usually have stinky winds to get there from here.So...who knows?
Just a note on the invest discussion. I do a weather forum here...very VERY low tech on my side of information, though pertinent...but part of what I do is try to educate people about things like invests. A few knew what one was, now a lot more do. When severe weather over a slip of land can affect your life, people ARE interested in a major way. So, I try to educate to keep people on their toes (which, in the islands, isn't difficult, as most are more than willing to hear anything that might impact them). So...depending on where you live and how you live, information is all relative. Si?

All I really care about at the moment is that the Chili Cookoff happens tonight...I'm aiming to WIN! Between the weather and the roads being torn up to install our first ever real sewer system (part of which I became MJ Andretti to get up this hill this afternoon, with six guys lauging and cheering me on, even the one I almost ran over jamming into gear around a barrel, onto the sidewalk almost scraping the fence, and up up up, brave guy!), sometimes we can just laugh because it's all ridiculous here.

[cycloneye]

Here on Culebra we just had about a 20 minute white out of rain ONLY on the east side of Ensenada Honda. I closed the cart, because heavy clouds were all around (and hey, it's enough work already!). I'm looking out the window from the top of the hill facing the bay and the rain has moved off to the north...even though the winds are coming from the north...weird stuff. Sailors were talkng about heading to Jost for the Halloween Cat Fight regatta (boat thing) as we usually have stinky winds to get there from here.So...who knows?
Just a note on the invest discussion. I do a weather forum here...very VERY low tech on my side of information, though pertinent...but part of what I do is try to educate people about things like invests. A few knew what one was, now a lot more do. When severe weather over a slip of land can affect your life, people ARE interested in a major way. So, I try to educate to keep people on their toes (which, in the islands, isn't difficult, as most are more than willing to hear anything that might impact them). So...depending on where you live and how you live, information is all relative. Si?

All I really care about at the moment is that the Chili Cookoff happens tonight...I'm aiming to WIN! Between the weather and the roads being torn up to install our first ever real sewer system (part of which I became MJ Andretti to get up this hill this afternoon, with six guys lauging and cheering me on, even the one I almost ran over jamming into gear around a barrel, onto the sidewalk almost scraping the fence, and up up up, brave guy!), sometimes we can just laugh because it's all ridiculous here.

mj,tell the sailors to stay in port at least thru friday night.:

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1059 AM AST THU OCT 25 2007

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

AMZ710-252245-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.SC.Y.0115.000000T0000Z-071027T0100Z/
ATLC WATERS FROM PUNTA CADENA TO MOUTH OF RIO GUAJATACA THEN E
BEYOND 100 FATHOMS TO ANEGADA PASSAGE N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 68W AND 64W-
1059 AM AST THU OCT 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS VARIABLE...MAINLY NORTH NORTHEAST 16 TO
21 KNOTS. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET IN NORTHEAST SWELLS.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 19 TO 24 KNOTS. SEAS 7 TO 9 FEET
IN NORTHEAST SWELLS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FEET IN
NORTHEAST SWELLS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 7 TO 9 FEET IN
NORTHEAST SWELLS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

[ronjon]

I'm going out on a bit of a limb here but I think 90L will likely develop into a tropical cyclone. We have farily strong model consensus (12Z CMC, UKMET, NAM, 00Z ECMWF & NOGAPs) for several runs now. The GFS shows vorticity but for some reason does not develop it (probably high wind shear). The low pressure today has gotten better organized (hence the INVEST tag) with increased convection and broad low level inflow - all the while battling fairly strong wind shear. Model progs (Euro)indicate very low wind shear after about 48 hrs in the central and western caribbean. Add in climatology and I think it more likely than not that we'll have a tropical cyclone in the western caribbean in 4-5 days.

[caribepr]

Laughing here...Luis, these guys think that is sailing weather...ok, my psycho landlord does anyway. I'll let you know and will pass along the advisory. Thanks.

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 130 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
THIS 1008 MB SFC LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE BASIN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY SE OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 60W-63W. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...
MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE UK/US
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THOSE AREAS. EASTERLY WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT N OF PUERTO RICO...THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF LOW PRES AND A SFC
HIGH LOCATED NE OF BERMUDAS. THIS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND EXPAND W THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS



12z NOGAPS is less strong than the 00z run,but still has the feature in the Caribbean moving it towards the Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

San Juan,Puerto Rico Observations

From where I am,the winds are from the NW and the pressure continues to fall,at this time down to 1007 mbs.It is cloudy with showers to the north of the city moving south so I will get that shortly.

[msbee]

From the Netherlands Antilles Met Office:


Valid until Friday midday October 26 with an outlook until Saturday midday October 27, 2007.
Weather:
Today: Partly cloudy, temporarily mostly cloudy with local showers and risk of thunderstorms. Showers could be at times frequent and moderate to heavy. Some local street flooding is possible.
Thursday evening through midnight: Mainly partly cloudy with a few local showers and risk of distant lightning or thunderstorms.
Friday morning through midday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies and periods with local showers and risk of a thunderstorm.

Winds:
Today: Initially South to Southeasterly between 12 to 18 miles per hour, later becoming East to Southeasterly and during showers gusting to 15 to 35 miles per hour.
Tonight: Mainly variable and light.
Friday: Easterly, 12 to 18 miles per hour, during showers possibly gusting to 15 to 35 miles per hour.

MARINE CONDITIONS:

..............A small craft advisory has come into effect for the open Caribbean and Atlantic waters and island
passages due to strong Northeasterly swells ..........

Coastal and open waters: Mainly moderate chop, locally choppy, Becoming temporarily rough in Northeasterly swells.
Winds: Force 2 to 3, Today and Friday in or around showers temporarily gusting to force 4 to 6.
Seas: Generally 2 to 5 feet. Today in or around showers, temporarily 6 to 9 feet in Northeasterly swells.

Protected waters: Light to moderate chop.
Winds: Force 2 to 3, Today in or around showers force 4 to 5.
Seas: 1 to 3 feet.

Temperature: Forecast high for Thursday 29 degrees Celsius, 84 degrees Fahrenheit and Friday 30 degrees Celsius, 86 degrees Fahrenheit, Forecast low for Friday and Saturday 24 degrees Celsius, 73 degrees Fahrenheit.

Synopsis:
A surface low situated just Northeast of the Northeastern Caribbean area this morning, will move today slowly in a Southwesterly direction over the local area.This will bring today some unsettled weather over the region. At times moderate to heavy showers, with temporarily gusty winds will affect the local weather. Showers could be at times heavy, causing local street flooding over low lying or flat terrain. Behind this surface low a strong high pressure area is building rapidly in a Southwestward direction across the Northeastern Caribbean on Friday. Some strong winds and squally weather could affect the local area by then. Marine conditions: Today Northeast swells will build quickly across the regional waters and maintain high seas throughout the weekend. A small craft advisory has come into effect for the open Atlantic waters and island passages.
Hazardous Weather Outlook: Strong Northeasterly swells affecting open waters.

Atlantic Tropical Weather:
A weak area of low pressure located just East Northeast of the Northeastern Caribbean islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. Upper level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development of this system during the next days. The low is expected to continue moving slowly West to Southwestward during the next couple of days.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 27 degrees West and South of 16 degrees North, moving West at 20 miles per hour. This wave shows a mid level feature with little indication on the surface and movement is based on continuity. No associated deep convection.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 42 degrees West and South of 13 degrees North, based on continuity the wave is moving West 20 miles per hour. No significant convection observed except shower activity within the Inter tropical convergence zone to it's South.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Saturday.

Names for the remaining tropical storms and/or hurricanes this season are: Noel, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.

Special Features: None.
Volcanic Activity: None.

Outlook until Saturday midday: Variably cloudy with chance of a few passing showers and risk of a thunderstorm.

Rainfall probability


Thursday periods with frequent showers, Friday periods with passing showers.

Rainfall potential


Thursday and Friday 5 to 20 mm. locally more.

Sunrise/Sunset:


Sunrise:


Sunset:
Thursday 5:44 PM
Friday 6:09 AM 5:43 PM
Saturday 6:09 AM 5:42 PM

Forecaster: J.N. Statia.

Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles & Aruba, Thursday October 25, 2007, 10:00 A.M.

THIS FORECAST SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR PUBLIC FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY MIDDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2007.

[wxman57]

Here's a 1/2 mb analysis of NOGAPS at 144 hrs, taking a low into the southern Yucatan. Not far from GFS solution. Take a look at the strong cold front across the southern Gulf of Mexico, too. This system could well take a SW track toward Central America. That would be its best shot at developing, as a more westerly track takes it into the frontal boundary and increasing shear across the NW Caribbean.

[caribepr]

We are in a weird foggy rain/then no rain white out right now, with blue skies and the sun shining only to the north. Very strange. Luis. But...pretty cool, really/ I like strange weather that isn't mala.