Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Evil Jeremy]

I said that in the context that there hasn't been anything to track for the past few weeks, and I said the Florida statement because Florida is due for another hurricane. Also, I did not see that 2 people died. Where did that come from?

[RL3AO]

Where did that come from?

Mud/rock slide from heavy rains in Puerto Rico that crushed a car.

[cycloneye]

I said that in the context that there hasn't been anything to track for the past few weeks, and I said the Florida statement because Florida is due for another hurricane. Also, I did not see that 2 people died. Where did that come from?

Go to thread at top of forum.

[stu]

Quick update as it is late here over in England.

Just to recap – Invest 90L has been called for this disturbance (we all know that by know.)

IR Sat images don’t look that that bad at all – indeed I will go out on a limb and call this a Tropical Depression right now (note: convection is just about touching -80c) and DORVAK estimates are also just a tad below TD right now.

25/2345 UTC18.8N 64.9W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

Rainfall has already affected P.R. with two deaths already reported in a mudslide. The saturated ground is going to be a problem for PR as the track of the invest will give a high rain fall event for PR.

Shear is still a factor for this system as well as land mass , The Euro paints an East Florida (hurricane) while GFS / GFDL show a tropical storm only South of Cuba – SHIP’s only make this a tropical storm.

However… if you take the current GFS/MRF shear prognosis ……
Conditions (upper air shear) in the Carib become VERY conducive for development.

Granted that this system is (a) close to land and (b) is actually forming

We need a RECON Synoptic flight so that the models can get a grip on this.

Right now (01:20z) there are no recon flights scheduled.

[MiamiensisWx]

I said that in the context that there hasn't been anything to track for the past few weeks, and I said the Florida statement because Florida is due for another hurricane. Also, I did not see that 2 people died. Where did that come from?

1) This is NOT about Florida
2) The "overdue" = greater landfall probabilities formula is false. This myth has been debunked on this board
3) FL has experienced seven hurricanes during 2004-2007

I'm not chiding your post; I'm merely providing some facts here.

OT: I do pay attention to the islands. MJ, I hope your comment wasn't directed toward my previous analysis. Hopefully, you and others will stay dry and safe in the islands!

[caribepr]

Jeremy, I have this weird habit of reading posts previous to what I've read before (and before posting) when I am interested in a system, so I can be caught up by the last post. Thank you RL3AO, for what you posted for Jeremy.
Yes, this is about the difference of why people use S2K. Not a judgement call at all, simply an observation. I'm not here for the experience of tracking weather, I'm here for being on top of (due to the knowledge and diligence of much more experienced posters) the weather we might and perhaps are experiencing, for all of the obvious reasons. Ok, obvious to me. So, yeah, I pay attention to what is being said. Even when it is really depressing and not what I want to hear...or what I critically need to read, as it might be a life and death decision time.
Something to consider.

OT: nope, this was only about that post. This year has shown a huge leap in sensitivity about those of us in the islands (that's my take, anyway)and I've noted it in other posts. I'll keep being the nasty reminder though, until there doesn't need to be reminders.

[fci]

Jeremy:
You are catching grief for the same reason that I have sent you PM's in the past: Your desire for South Florida to be struck by a Hurricane.
We can skip all of the other periphery comments that try to understand why you posted what you did.
It is plain, simple and obvious.
Please read what you type before you hit the "submit" button. It will save us all from having to go through this. You have good things to contribute to the board so reserve your comments for them.
And that is all that I will say about this.

[Derek Ortt]

yes, this is likely a TD now. Advisories need to be started to highlight the flooding threat

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It is producing dangerously heavy rains and so I agree with Derek about flood advisories.

[cycloneye]

If you look very close,the low is between St John and St Thomas.

[chadtm80]

[wxman57]

I would disagree that this is a TD. Does it have to be called a TD for the San Juan weather service office to put out a heavy rain advisory? Surface obs indicate a very broad, weak low with winds of 5-10 kts around it. Nearest convection is 60 miles east of the low center as high shear continues. The 20-25 kt winds that extend 400-600nm to the west, north, and east of the low represent the general tradewind flow, not any circulation around the low center. The Dvorak number looks too high, as it may be assuming the center is beneath (or closer to) that area of squalls. It's not, that's just a convective burst east of the center. Oh, and beware a misplaced ship report just NE of PR. It's reporting a NNE wind of 40 kts in a heavy squall, but the sky is nearly clear there (no showers anywhere in the vicinity). Ships often don't report their correct lat/lon (coding error) and are plotted in the wrong place.

Here's a current surface plot. Actually, I dropped back to 00Z to eliminate that bad ship report. Also note that a new observation at St. Thomas (ESE wind 5 kts and 1005.7mb) just in would put the center closer to 18.2N/65.2W, that's 30 miles east of the eastern tip of PR.

[Derek Ortt]

I have seen TDs a lot worse than this though (Grace 2003 as the most glaring example)

Also, this looks better than Gamma when it was in the EC. Yes, the strongest winds are not near the center, but this is somewhat common in the highly sheared TCs

Regardless as to whether or not this si a TD, I do not see this developing much further, at least through 48 hours. Chances are likely a little higher afterward

[wxman57]

I have seen TDs a lot worse than this though (Grace 2003 as the most glaring example)

Also, this looks better than Gamma when it was in the EC. Yes, the strongest winds are not near the center, but this is somewhat common in the highly sheared TCs

Regardless as to whether or not this si a TD, I do not see this developing much further, at least through 48 hours. Chances are likely a little higher afterward

That's more an argument for downgrading Grace and Gamma in the database rather than calling this a TD.

I'm all for it not developing through the weekend. My hurricane team has been disbanded. I'm working 7 days a week through November on the daily outlooks. Of course, if it develops we'll pull the team back together to cover it. WV loops still show quite a bit of shear all around the disturbance and no sign of it letting up.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 260217
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH...IS CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURES
REMAIN LOW IN THE AREA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW FOR A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. REGARDLESS OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it has a closed surface LLC and has a least some convection trying to form near or over it, I would say its a depression. It does not need to look good. But hey that is just my .02 cents. Also I would not be suprized if the shear destroyed this system, also I feel that except for maybe a weak north Atlantic system, this system is over.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I am hoping for Noel to form, but ideally on December 24th.

[wxman57]

If it has a closed surface LLC and has a least some convection trying to form near or over it, I would say its a depression. It does not need to look good. But hey that is just my .02 cents. Also I would not be suprized if the shear destroyed this system, also I feel that except for maybe a weak north Atlantic system, this system is over.

There is no heavy convection within 70 miles of the center. Just being a weak closed low doesn't qualify it for upgrading, or we'd have 50 such depressions each year.

[Vortex]

NAM 00z

H+84
Favorable upper-air environment and this happens


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif