Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[bvigal]

I think St. Croix is going to get nailed with the big rain, and perhaps PR will be spared the flash flooding rains. St. Croix isn't nearly as steep and mountainous.

[wxman57]

For the record, I do think that chances of development appear to be increasing, perhaps to 40% or even a bit higher. But I don't expect any significant change in organization until Sunday. So don't expect much tomorrow or Saturday. Could well be a threat to south Florida next Wednesday or Thursday, but probably not a hurricane threat.

Heading to bed. Have to update the tropics forecasts at 5am.

[CrazyC83]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Wind shear currently high but decreasing.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[cycloneye]

Is easy to see the low pressure circulation in the radar loop.Is sliding WSW and is near Vieques.Maybe as bvigal said earlier,Puerto Rico may be spared the worse bad weather but I will continue vigilant as these things can change directions at any time.

[curtadams]

There is no heavy convection within 70 miles of the center. Just being a weak closed low doesn't qualify it for upgrading, or we'd have 50 such depressions each year.

And how is this materially different from TS Alberto 2006 (besides being weaker)? That also had quite a distance between center and convection and rather weak winds near the center. What we see is very typical of these highly sheared storms. We do not often see the LLC and ULC track each other like this - although the NHC does like to ignore ones with short life expectancies.

(That said, it's about to hit some significantly tougher shear, which probably means bye)

[vegastar]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...IS LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Thunder44]

The LLC near Ponce, Puerto Rico looks like running out ahead of the MLC which is near the Virgin Islands this morning and looks nearly stationary. There are few showers and thunderstorm wrapping around the LLC but overall the whole system looks worse than last night.

[ronjon]

SFWMD Plots:

[cycloneye]

00z NOGAPS



The 00z NOGAPS develops it in the NW Caribbean.

00z UKMET



The 00z UKMET crosses Hispañola and then develops it in the Bahamas.

00z EURO



The 00z EURO develops it and tracks it thru South FLorida.

[HURAKAN]

Good morning:

[Blown Away]

Vigorous LLC near 17.7/66.5 with convection on the NE side. Moving into an area w/ less shear. We just might get Noel out of this. IMO, this invest has the most potenital compared to the ones we've seen over the past month.

[wxman57]

Vigorous LLC near 17.7/66.5 with convection on the NE side. Moving into an area w/ less shear. We just might get Noel out of this. IMO, this invest has the most potential compared to the ones we've seen over the past month.

Observations indicate the center is farther southeast, perhaps 17N/65.9. Possibly as far south as 16.5N.

[cycloneye]

57,you may be right about it being more south and east according to the long range radar.That low brushing the coast may be a eddy?.

[GCANE]

Now with more models showing a possible track south of Jamaica, the heat-content of the water needs to be brought to attention. It is not as hot as when Dean and Felix went over the area, but can still be a factor in major development.

[boca]

None of the Florida NWS offices are concerned about it. They are saying that the gradient will be tight because of lower pressure in the Caribbean and high pressure over the Ohio Valley will provide a long fetch of easterly winds. I think this will be a Yucatan issue not Florida.This goes against climotology.

[GCANE]

Here is the 10:24Z shot of QuikSCAT. Based on this; where the center is, is perhaps a subjective call. Especially with the rain contaminated barbs. Is it over PR or just to the south?

[GCANE]

Organization is a mixed bag this morning. A weak, elongated surface low exists, perhaps over PR. 850mb Vorticity looks healthy:



However, LL Convergence and UL Divergence are removed and weak.





Shear is the major inhibitor in its development, running at 30+ knots.

[Blown Away]

None of the Florida NWS offices are concerned about it. They are saying that the gradient will be tight because of lower pressure in the Caribbean and high pressure over the Ohio Valley will provide a long fetch of easterly winds. I think this will be a Yucatan issue not Florida.This goes against climotology.

Melbourne NWS outlook goes to next Thursday, seems if 90L were to affect SFL it would be after Thursday, maybe that is why it has not been mentioned.

[ronjon]

None of the Florida NWS offices are concerned about it. They are saying that the gradient will be tight because of lower pressure in the Caribbean and high pressure over the Ohio Valley will provide a long fetch of easterly winds. I think this will be a Yucatan issue not Florida.This goes against climotology.

Actually, it's been mentioned in the AFDs for Melbourne and Tallahassee the last couple of days (I posted the discussions on the thread prior to it becoming 90L). 00Z Euro brings it to S FL in 7 days so it's at the margin of NWS long range outlooks - in addition, they play it pretty conservatively until it's within the 3-5 day range.