Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

26th of October 12z CMC



Oh Canada!

[chadtm80]

[tailgater]

I can't post on the other topic about this Invest, is there a problem or is it me?

[cycloneye]

I can't post on the other topic about this Invest, is there a problem or is it me?

tailgater,there is any problem to post in this thread.

[btangy]

What might happen is that the convergence of wave activity (the disturbance in the W Caribbean and 90L) might be what's needed to get this thing going. Models are still bullish on genesis, but it might not happen for 5+ days as this entire area stews in the W Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

305

WTNT80 EGRR 261716



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.10.2007





NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 17.2N 72.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.10.2007 17.2N 72.0W WEAK

00UTC 29.10.2007 18.3N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.10.2007 19.4N 75.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.10.2007 20.3N 76.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.10.2007 20.1N 77.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.10.2007 20.1N 79.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.10.2007 20.6N 81.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.11.2007 22.3N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.11.2007 25.9N 76.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12z UKMET

12z UKMET Loop

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 261734
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.2 67.2 240./11.1
6 17.0 68.2 256./ 9.4
12 16.5 70.0 255./18.4
18 16.2 70.7 246./ 6.7
24 16.2 72.7 269./19.6
30 16.9 73.2 325./ 8.0
36 17.1 74.5 281./12.5
42 18.1 74.4 1./ 9.6
48 18.5 75.4 296./ 9.9
54 19.4 75.9 330./10.5
60 20.2 77.2 299./14.2
66 20.6 77.5 329./ 4.9
72 20.8 78.1 290./ 5.9
78 21.1 78.6 297./ 6.0
84 20.9 79.1 252./ 5.0
90 21.0 79.1 18./ .9
96 20.7 79.3 210./ 3.5
102 20.4 79.3 178./ 3.0
108 19.9 79.8 229./ 7.5
114 19.7 80.1 232./ 2.7
120 19.7 80.4 267./ 3.4
126 19.6 81.1 261./ 6.6

12z GFDL

[cycloneye]

26/1515 UTC 16.7N 68.8W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

Sunday will be D-Day for it as it reaches the Western Caribbean to see if it organizes or it fizzeles completly.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 261817
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1817 UTC FRI OCT 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071026 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071026 1800 071027 0600 071027 1800 071028 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 68.8W 16.9N 71.1W 17.5N 73.6W 17.9N 76.1W
BAMD 16.8N 68.8W 16.3N 69.8W 16.5N 70.8W 17.2N 71.6W
BAMM 16.8N 68.8W 16.5N 70.5W 16.9N 72.4W 17.4N 73.9W
LBAR 16.8N 68.8W 16.3N 70.9W 16.9N 73.1W 17.9N 75.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071028 1800 071029 1800 071030 1800 071031 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 78.4W 17.2N 81.5W 16.8N 83.6W 17.2N 85.3W
BAMD 18.1N 72.1W 20.2N 73.4W 22.5N 73.5W 23.0N 72.7W
BAMM 17.9N 75.4W 19.0N 77.9W 20.2N 80.4W 21.7N 83.6W
LBAR 19.2N 76.5W 21.8N 79.4W 24.9N 78.8W 26.8N 76.5W
SHIP 42KTS 51KTS 58KTS 56KTS
DSHP 42KTS 51KTS 58KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.8N LONCUR = 68.8W DIRCUR = 245DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 18.2N LONM12 = 65.8W DIRM12 = 242DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 19.1N LONM24 = 64.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[ronjon]

12Z NOGAPs:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2007102612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks to be a slight increase in showers on the south side of the circulation and maybe trying to hook around the north side as well according to this visible loop.

Still seems to be some shear in the area. But that may very well change in the coming days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not sure about whether anything tropical forms, but even models that don't really spin up a TC suggest lowering pressure in the Caribbean, which should combine with super-mondo polar high pressure to bring some nasty Northeast gales to Florida.

[chadtm80]

[ronjon]

HPC Final Discussion:

...FL...

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THAT A TROPICAL SYS COULD DEVELOP IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AROUND MON. THIS SYS WILL BEGIN DRIFTING NW...THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE TO THE NE DAYS 6-7 AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE SRN FRINGE OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES. PERIODS OF HEAVY PCPN LIKELY OVER THE STATE ALONG/N OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E COAST AND BACK OVER THE KEYS.

[cycloneye]

[ronjon]

NWS Melbourne AFD:

MON-FRI...PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PEIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLC AND SFC LOW IS FCST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WRN CARRIBEAN AND DRIFT NWD NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE IN THE WEEK. TIGHTEST GRADIENT FCST MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT WITH ROUGH/HIGH SURF DEVELOPING AND BREEZY TO WINDY NE-E WINDS. EXPECT SCATTERED ATLC SHOWERS TO STREAM ONSHORE WITH MARINE CLOUDINESS RETURNING BY MON/TUE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF
POTENTIAL CARRIBEAN SYS FOR THE DAY 7 TIME FRAME WITH 12Z GFS
FORECASTING ANOTHER MID LVL TROUGH WHICH SHOULD PULL AT LEAST SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TWD THE STATE. STILL LOTS OF TIME FOR THE MODELS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM.

[chadtm80]

[ronjon]

From Dr Masters Blog Today on 90L:

The surface low is separating from the upper level low today, and will move west-southwest at about 10 mph. This will bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding and mudslides to Puerto Rico. Heavy rains of 2-4 inches in just two hours hit the Virgin Islands this morning (Figure 1), prompting flash flood warnings there. Heavy rains also hit many of the islands of the northern Lesser Antilles. Rain amounts as high as 3-5 inches are expected today over eastern Puerto Rico. Several mudslides have already been reported on the island.

The action shifts to the Dominican Republic on Saturday and Haiti on Sunday, as 90L tracks just south of the island of Hispaniola. These nations can expect rains of 3-6 inches, which could trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. It is possible 90L could intensify into a tropical depression on Sunday, as wind shear will slowly fall to 20 knots. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly Sunday afternoon, if necessary. On Sunday, 90L will be approaching Jamaica, and the ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict that wind shear will drop to 10-20 knots. These models develop 90L into at least a strong tropical storm as it moves slowly into the Western Caribbean. The GFS model keeps wind shear 20-30 knots through the period, and does not develop 90L. The HWRF model also does not develop 90L. The GFDL is not keen on developing the system either, but does suggest that a weak tropical storm may form a week from now. I believe the most reasonable solution is the NOGAPS and ECMWF solution, and 90L will intensify into hurricane in the Western Caribbean late next week. The long-term path of such a storm is very uncertain, with the NOGAPS and ECMWF suggesting a track north into the Gulf of Mexico to threaten the U.S., and the GFDL predicting 90L will get trapped in the Western Caribbean and perform a counter-clockwise loop. If you have travel plans that take you to Jamaica or the Cayman Islands Sunday through Tuesday, or Cancun/Cozumel/Western Cuba Tuesday through Saturday next week, be prepared for the possibility of disruptions.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 262120
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST
ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...IF
ANY...IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[canegrl04]

Wouldn't it be something if this became a November hurricane? Lets see what it looks like by Sunday

[x-y-no]

18Z GFDL briefly brings it to TS strength as it goes between Jamaica and Cuba.