NW Caribbean getting interesting by the Caymans

[boca]

I'm seeing all this cyclonic twisting down there. Is it a frontal low or an ULL?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I would concentrate on this area. You can observe a possible sfc low well S of Cuba. It is situated under the best UL conditions in the basin; model guidance indicates decreasing shear as the sfc front retrogrades west; and the guidance also suggests lowering pressures in this region. I suspect this persistent area may develop, while 90L remains in a sheared environment and succumbs to the large upper low. I suspect model guidance will slowly indicate a system that originates in the W Caribbean (unrelated to 90L's remnants).

[boca]

Personally, I would concentrate on this area. You can observe a possible sfc low well S of Cuba. It is situated under the best UL conditions in the basin; model guidance indicates decreasing shear as the sfc front retrogrades west; and the guidance also suggests lowering pressures in this region. I suspect this persistent area may develop, while 90L remains in a sheared environment and succumbs to the large upper low. I suspect model guidance will slowly indicate a system that originates in the W Caribbean (unrelated to 90L's remnants).

Most important issue would be direction if it develops.There is a strong high forecast to develop over the Ohio Valley which would probably go against climatology and push this system west into the Yucatan.

[Thunder44]

On nightime visible imagery. It does look a like large low is forming SW of Cayman Island. It may be more sub-tropical or extratropical though.

[HURAKAN]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

In the loop a rotation is clearly seen.

[GCANE]

NHC is tagging this as the intersection of a trough and stationary front. WV shows decent UL Outflow. A weak ULL is spinning just south of the major convection at 18N 82.5W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

The surface trough is evident on QuikSCAT:



Shear is near zero. A lot more conducive that what 90L is going thru.

[Thunder44]

This is appears to be a non-tropical low developing on the tail end of front that is up along US East coast, at this time. Click on NCEP Fronts and you will see they that currently analyize a stationary front down to the NW Carribean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[GCANE]

The ULL looks pretty weak and is not currently defined on any of the CIMSS layers. The ULL appears to be pulling up some very moist, unstable air from the ITCZ and across the surface trough. Given the low-shear environment, there may be some development here.

[wxman57]

This is appears to be a non-tropical low developing on the tail end of front that is up along US East coast, at this time. Click on NCEP Fronts and you will see they that currently analyize a stationary front down to the NW Carribean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

It's definitely a cold front across the NW Caribbean. The low is aloft. Fairly tight circulation on the upper low, too. Pressures are steadily rising at the buoy just to the west. Probably won't develop, but something to keep an eye on.

[Thunder44]

This is appears to be a non-tropical low developing on the tail end of front that is up along US East coast, at this time. Click on NCEP Fronts and you will see they that currently analyize a stationary front down to the NW Carribean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

It's definitely a cold front across the NW Caribbean. The low is aloft. Fairly tight circulation on the upper low, too. Pressures are steadily rising at the buoy just to the west. Probably won't develop, but something to keep an eye on.

I don't think the low is entirely aloft. QS shows at least an elongated low pressure in NW carribean, and the pressures rises maybe more dinural related. Also NCEP now analyizes a 1008mb surface low west of the Cayman Islands now.

[Thunder44]

854
ABNT20 KNHC 261527
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
ABOUT 10 MPH AND IS NOW LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF
THE MONA PASSAGE. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL BUT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ON A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD TRACK AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...IF ANY...IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

AN AREA DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE
MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[wxman57]

Pressure continues to rise at the NW Caribbean buoy and thunderstorms are diminishing. Just some storms along the cold front.

[cycloneye]

[Thunder44]

Pressure continues to rise at the NW Caribbean buoy and thunderstorms are diminishing. Just some storms along the cold front.

The pressure at bouy 42056 has been reported at 29.91" for the past 4 hours. I don't know why the pressure tendency was being reported as still rising:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[GCANE]

Definitely rotation on IR.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 18&lon=-84

CIMSS is not showing this as an ULL:

[Thunder44]

Pressure has fallen the last two hours, to 29.86", nearly back to where it was this morning.

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[Blown Away]

This should be an invest. Good cyclonic spin, convection building, and potential.

[GCANE]

WV is showing convection flaring up closer to the center on the west flank. This appears to be coming from moist air being drawn up from the ITCZ. Shear is very low over this and NHC is saying it will be parked here for a while. The front to the north in the GOM appers to be aiding UL Divergence.

Looks like a potential Invest.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 18&lon=-83

[cycloneye]

5:30 PM TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[wxman57]

Getting LESS interesting.