SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[southerngale]

The Instaweather (Weatherbug) stations just to my north and just to my south both recorded 40° so I guess my low was 40° - brrrr. What a drastic change from a week ago... I love it!

[Extremeweatherguy]

There was frost on the rooftops this morning in my neighborhood. I didn't check the thermometer this morning but it was probably very close to the reading at IAH....I'll post it later....and no the airport does not have a "warm bias", especially not when compared to most of Harris County.

Just to put this to rest, here is an aerial shot of the airport & surrounding area with the IAH station marked with a red X. Note all the green, trees, & undeveloped land in the surrounding area. There is even more green space located to the NE of the airport, or upstream during most cold mornings. Also note the station location is quite a ways from the terminal area.



Now here is a shot of SW Houston by my office. Note the continuous spanse of concrete; overall the shot has a Gray hue to it. Aside from Memorial park, there is no significant "green space". This is why inside the Beltway it is typically WARMER than IAH:

If there was frost on the roofs of your neighborhood, then I would venture to guess that you were much colder than IAH. The low of 42-degrees at the airport is not cold enough for frost formation. Based on what I have observed in the past, it usually takes a temperature of about 38/39-degrees or colder for patchy rooftop frost to develop (I briefly hit 39˚ last night in Spring and saw no frost where I was).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a look at last night's official lows...

Conroe - 36˚
Tomball (Hooks) - 38˚
Spring (my thermometer) - 39˚
IAH - 42˚
Hobby - 46˚
Galveston - 54˚

Latest NWS forecast is calling for very similar conditions tonight as well!

[jasons2k]

Well, my low here was 42F - consistent with lows in the area. John Cooper School recorded 41F.

And FWIW I saw frost on the rooftops along the Hardy all the way down to FM1960. When I left the house, the car showed 46F outside. After that, there really aren't any more houses until after BW8, and the car thermometer started to creep up....it was 54F after I crossed the 2nd toll plaza...and it was close to 8:30 by then. I saw the same thing many times last year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Really? That is pretty odd. I have never seen frost around here in the 40s..or anywhere else for that matter, but if you say it has happened, then I believe you. Definitely pretty interesting.

Any mets want to chime in about how this is possibly happening? I know that some surfaces can cool to freezing even with the temperature slightly above freezing (mid to upper 30s), but I never knew that surfaces could cool to freezing even with an air temperature in the 40s. What has to take place to allow this to happen?

[jasons2k]

It's rare when I've seen it in the 40s, but I saw it last year.

It must have something to do with the shingles & the way the attics are constructed here. I guess the roofs here radiate heat extremely efficiently or something. You could see the roof truss pattern in the frost (if that makes sense - it looked like a dark grid in the frost).

Before I moved here, if I saw frost on the roofs, there would always be frost on the tops of the cars as well. Yesterday (and a few times last year), there was frost on the roofs but the dew on the cars was still all liquid.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Did anyone else notice this interesting statement from the Houston AFD this morning?

THE MORE ZONAL
UPPER PATTERN WILL BUCKLE IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. LEADING TO THE POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING UP ON SATURDAY
DROPPING THE TROUGH DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY
CUTTING IT OFF VERY MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN OF A COUPLE DAYS AGO
WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NETX-MS REGION BY NEXT SUNDAY.

Basically, it looks like we may be dealing with yet another cut off ULL to our NE next weekend and with it will come more cool, dry air into our region.

[rainman31]

I like the sound of that

[jasons2k]

Looks like another week of perfect fall weather:

This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 76. North wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 53. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 55. East wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 58.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 75.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 75.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting NWS discussion...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO E TX KEEPING E WINDS IN PLACE
BUT BECOMING MORE OUT OF THE S ON WED WITH NE WINDS OFFSHORE.
ALOFT...THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW CUTOFF OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL KICK EAST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING
WED/THU.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN TO BE NEXT TUESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIM
AT BEST. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A
COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS S CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SE TX THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH TEMPS REMAINING ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO PLACE FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
SPLIT OVER THE PACIFIC WITH A OMEGA BLOCKING SETTING UP. THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING STRONG NW FLOW
ALOFT COMING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A STRONGER COLD
FRONT TO PUSH INTO TX EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
MAY BE FASTER GIVEN THE STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT AND COLDER AIRMASS
COMING FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF IS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS ON THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. SINCE THIS FRONT IS AT THE TAIL
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP WATCH OF FOR TIMING
ISSUES.

OVERPECK

[JenBayles]

I'll admit this is some fabulous weather we've got going, but the grass is always greener elsewhere and now I'm getting bored! Bring on some rain! I thought I was about done dragging the hose around the yard, but everything is really parched now.

Has anyone else noticed the strong smell of ozone the past few mornings? I know not everyone can smell it, but it's been really noticeable lately.

[jasons2k]

I haven't noticed, sorry, I don't know what Ozone smells like.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Updated NWS Forecast (11/4/07 9am):

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. East wind around 5 mph becoming south.

Tonight: Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday: Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

was reading on the ch.11 weather board that it COULD be ideal conditions maybe upper 30's either wednesday or thursday morning, so conroe airport which sets in a bowl upper 20's, low 30s?

[Extremeweatherguy]

was reading on the ch.11 weather board that it COULD be ideal conditions maybe upper 30's either wednesday or thursday morning, so conroe airport which sets in a bowl upper 20's, low 30s?

It looked possible a few days ago...but now the chance of a freeze reaching Conroe is slim to none. Most of the cold air will head east of here and we will also see some clouds behind the frontal passage. The CAA alone will still be strong enough to bring Conroe down into the lower 40s and Houston into the mid 40s by Wednesday morning, but unless the skies are clearer and the winds are calmer than expected, we should not see any kind of frost or freeze in SE Texas. However, if the skies do happen to clear faster or the winds die down more quickly, things can change..and perhaps Conroe will reach the 30s..but even under perfect conditions I do not think the airmass over our area will be capable of a freeze (especially 20s) in Conroe.

Current forecast numbers from the NWS for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning look like this...

Huntsville - 44˚
Bryan - 45˚
Conroe - 44˚
Spring - 45˚
IAH - 46˚
Downtown Houston - 47˚
Hobby - 48˚
Sugar Land - 48˚
Galveston - 57˚

^^As of 8pm 11/4/07^^

[Extremeweatherguy]

The next few days look like this...

Tuesday - High in the 60s with clouds, breezy winds and showers possible.

Tuesday night - Lows in the 40s across most of the area, and feeling pretty chilly with the added windchill. (warmer near coast)

Wednesday - Mostly sunny or partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Wednesday night - Clear and chilly with lows in the 40s north and lower 50s far south. (warmer near coast)

Thursday - Partly sunny and nice with highs in the 70-75˚ range areawide.

Enjoy!

[vbhoutex]

At this point it looks like the front is hung up between College Station and Houston at about the NW cornere of Harris County. Haven't seen muchmovemnet this way in the last few hours. We may end up with just a glancing blow if this keeps up.

12:30 pm and it looks like it is filtering in now. Certainly isn't coming in like it was originally announced several days ago.

[PTrackerLA]

It will be interesting to see when we finally see our first frost/freeze around here given the La Nina pattern. I see they have given the gulf coast a likely chance of drought developing this winter along with above normal temps = yuck.

[rainman31]

looks like this cold front is a bust

[Extremeweatherguy]

The next few days look really nice! And tonight we will even creep into the lower 40s! Definitely a nice change!

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 68. East wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. East wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. East wind around 5 mph.