Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[USTropics]

This is a very difficult steering pattern setting up. This system is approaching an ULL to its north (which, if it can get underneath it, will significantly decrease the sheer, setting up a very favorable upper-level environment) and the presence of a cold front off the coast of Florida that should begin to be pulled north by the ULL over Tennessee. It depends on how far north it can get before being pulled to the east, or it could possibly meander out in the NW Caribbean until the next system picks it up (as wxman stated). Basically it sets up for a lot of uncertainty in the future track of this system, even 3 days out.

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

Convection just diminished in the past hour or two and a little vortex shot out to the WNW near 15.8N/70.5W. Still a ways to go to become a TD. Shear will have to decrease more than it has.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 271732
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.3 70.3 240./ 8.0
6 15.4 70.7 293./ 4.6
12 16.3 70.8 350./ 8.4
18 16.5 71.6 291./ 7.3
24 17.3 71.7 346./ 7.5
30 18.6 72.7 325./16.3
36 19.9 73.1 341./13.7
42 20.4 74.0 300./ 9.3
48 21.0 74.7 312./ 8.9
54 21.8 75.1 331./ 8.4
60 22.4 75.4 334./ 6.8
66 23.1 75.6 342./ 6.9
72 23.8 75.6 357./ 6.7
78 24.3 75.8 342./ 5.4
84 24.7 75.5 32./ 4.8
90 25.3 75.3 16./ 6.3
96 26.0 74.8 39./ 8.3
102 27.0 74.3 26./11.3
108 28.3 73.8 18./13.7
114 29.2 73.8 2./ 9.0
120 30.5 73.1 28./14.2
126 31.6 72.4 34./12.5

12z GFDL does not have the U.S in site.

[Evil Jeremy]

TFCA

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[cycloneye]

12z CMC



Oh Canada!

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL also has a sub 960mb cane in the Bahamas

[cycloneye]

WTNT01 KNGU 271800
UNCLAS//N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 271800Z OCT 07//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N, 70.4W TO 16.0N, 74.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 15N 70W HAS AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1005MB. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL DEVOLPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW CONTINUES
TO INCREASE AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (82F/28C)
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 281200Z
OCT 2007.//

[Cyclone1]

We got the INVEST, we got the TCFA all that's left is the 16L.NONAME. Moniter the NRL.

[cycloneye]

Not so fast:

27/1745 UTC 15.1N 70.9W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Derek Ortt]

there are surface obs that are being used. the Dvorak likely carries little to no weight with the amount of obs available

[RL3AO]

I don't expect an upgrade until 12 hours past a big blowup of convection over the COC.

[Derek Ortt]

HWRF (for the little it has been worth this year), also has a strong cane in the Bahamas

[Derek Ortt]

TAFB has a higher T number, and I tend to buy the TAFB number in this case a little more than SSD

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL in motion:

12z GFDL



12z HWRF in motion:

12z HWRF

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS



12z NOGAPS has it at the end in Western Cuba as a strong storm.

[Evil Jeremy]

what foes the TAFB say? 1.5?

[Evil Jeremy]

Latest CMC joining the GFDL and HWRF sisters

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 271824
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1824 UTC SAT OCT 27 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071027 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071027 1800 071028 0600 071028 1800 071029 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 70.9W 16.2N 72.7W 17.0N 74.4W 17.4N 75.8W
BAMD 15.5N 70.9W 15.9N 71.9W 16.7N 72.8W 17.6N 73.7W
BAMM 15.5N 70.9W 16.1N 72.3W 16.8N 73.6W 17.4N 74.7W
LBAR 15.5N 70.9W 16.2N 72.4W 17.4N 73.5W 18.8N 74.2W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071029 1800 071030 1800 071031 1800 071101 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 77.2W 18.9N 79.5W 19.6N 81.0W 19.8N 81.7W
BAMD 18.6N 74.8W 20.4N 76.9W 22.1N 78.4W 25.6N 76.7W
BAMM 18.2N 76.0W 19.6N 78.0W 20.7N 79.6W 21.7N 79.8W
LBAR 20.3N 75.1W 22.7N 75.5W 24.8N 75.5W 26.7N 73.7W
SHIP 59KTS 73KTS 79KTS 74KTS
DSHP 50KTS 66KTS 72KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 70.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 69.4W DIRM12 = 247DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 68.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

SHIP and DSHP have a cane.