Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop

[fci]

I'm waiting to read that JB predicted a system in the Carib in October.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No words, other then me, my self, and I believe this is a tropical cyclone of some sort. Its mind blowing that the shear is still around to stop development, and this after almost 4 weeks of no development. This season is pretty much dead.

[Aquawind]

Convection getting closer to the center.

Yep, It's not going to take much to make it a TD.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The GFDL and HWRF with strength has blown it quite a few times this season. I believe 50 knots tops over the western Atlantic, heck it could sprize me and become a cane,. But with what the western Atlantic has shown this year, there is no reason to believe so yet.

[cycloneye]

IMO,if they dont classify as a TD in the next 6 hours,at least a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement can be released.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm waiting to read that JB predicted a system in the Carib in October.

He did.

Before the season even began, and again about 4 days ago.


This loooks like it may become a TD before November 1st.

BTW, JB believes the Western Carib system is probably technically a tropical depression.

[HURAKAN]

I have seen better, I have seen worse, and this looks like a depression (or very close!)

[fci]

I'm waiting to read that JB predicted a system in the Carib in October.

He did.

Before the season even began, and again about 4 days ago.


This loooks like it may become a TD before November 1st.

BTW, JB believes the Western Carib system is probably technically a tropical depression.

I was being sarcastic.
Obviously, a prediction of a system in the Carib in October makes sense.
As does a predicition of Cape Verde systems in August.
Or snow up north in January (but not in Houston where you wish it to be! )
It's a "duh-uh"!

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB's defintion of a tropical storm, is a closed non-frontal rotary circulation with gales in at least one quadrant over water temps near/warmer than 26ºC.


Not sure what his definition of a TD is.

[flwxwatcher]

Dr Jeff Masters Saturday Evening update.

A Halloween hurricane?

Posted by: JeffMasters, 6:07 PM EDT on October 27, 2007
A surface low pressure system (90L), near 16N 71W, about 150 miles south of the Haiti/Dominican Republic border, is moving west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Long range radar of of Puerto Rico shows bands of heavy rain continuing to affect the region. Satellite loops show most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is to the east of the low's center of circulation, but these thunderstorms have gotten more organized in the past few hours, and a more circular center has developed. Wind shear has fallen to 20-25 knots this afternoon, and is expected to fall below 15 knots on Sunday. This should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression on Sunday.The system will continue to bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding and mudslides to Puerto Rico through Sunday night. Heavy rains of up to 6 inches have already fallen in southeast Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1). Heavy rains will also affect the Dominican Republic and Haiti Sunday and Monday, and are likely to trigger life-threatening flash floods in Haiti.

This morning's 12Z (8am EDT) computer model forecasts have made a major change: the three major intensity forecast models--the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models--all agree that 90L will intensify into a hurricane. The GFDL and HWRF predict 90L will move northwesterly across Haiti and western Cuba, and into the Bahamas on Tuesday, and intensify into a hurricane over the central Bahamas on Tuesday. A trough of low pressure would then swing 90L northeastwards out to sea. This forecast track seems unreasonable, as 90L has headed more to the west today than these models predicted.

The ECMWF and GFS models predict 90L will track along the length of Cuba early next week, then pass within 50 miles of Miami on Thursday before recurving northeastwards out to sea. These models do not intensify 90L into a hurricane, due to the amount of time the storm spends over the mountainous terrain of Cuba. This is a reasonable forecast, should 90L track over Cuba for a long distance.

I believe the forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which predict a more southerly track into the Western Caribbean, just south of Cuba, are the most reasonable ones. This track would favor 90L developing into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, since the heat content of the waters in the Western Caribbean is high.

One possible wild card is the disturbed area of weather that has formed in the extreme Western Caribbean, just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance is currently very disorganized, but is under only 10 knots of wind shear. If it starts to develop early next week, it could alter the path and development of 90L.

I am expecting 90L to develop into a tropical storm by Monday, and a into hurricane later in week, if the system does not track directly along the length of Cuba. The eastern 2/3 of Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm affecting them on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, these regions, plus western Cuba, South Florida, the Bahamas, and Mexico's Yucatan, are at risk of a hurricane.

Jeff Masters

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200710

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm waiting to read that JB predicted a system in the Carib in October.

He did.

Before the season even began, and again about 4 days ago.


This loooks like it may become a TD before November 1st.

BTW, JB believes the Western Carib system is probably technically a tropical depression.

I was being sarcastic.
Obviously, a prediction of a system in the Carib in October makes sense.
As does a predicition of Cape Verde systems in August.
Or snow up north in January (but not in Houston where you wish it to be! )
It's a "duh-uh"!

We had a couple of hours of freezing drizzle last January, such that I left for work two hours later than usual. I live North of Beltway 8, the magic line that separates temperate Harris County from sub-tropical Harris County.

[caneman]

Jeff Masters mentioned that if the NW Caribb were to develop it would affect 90L's track. In what way? How would a system developing in the NW Caribb. affect 90 L. Would 90L follow its path or get kicked out to sea quicker?

[Rainband]

Jeff Masters mentioned that if the NW Caribb were to develop it would affect 90L's track. In what way? How would a system developing in the NW Caribb. affect 90 L. Would 90L follow its path or get kicked out to sea quicker?

It depends on a lot of things. At any rate our neck of the woods is safe unless a front comes down.

[Sanibel]

Mind that black IR!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Jeff Masters mentioned that if the NW Caribb were to develop it would affect 90L's track. In what way? How would a system developing in the NW Caribb. affect 90 L. Would 90L follow its path or get kicked out to sea quicker?

It depends on a lot of things. At any rate our neck of the woods is safe unless a front comes down.

Well, it would depend if potential Noel got stuck in the Caribbean in weak currents until perhaps the pattern changed. Caribbean has deep enough warm water to sustain a slow moving storm for several days. History says that while Texas is generally safe towards the end of September, hurricanes have hit Florida (like Hurricane Kate) in November.

[RL3AO]

Very deep convection with the eastern half of the LLC covered.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

I wouldnt be surprised if a STDS is issued tonight,unless they classify it as a TD first.

[Rainband]

Jeff Masters mentioned that if the NW Caribb were to develop it would affect 90L's track. In what way? How would a system developing in the NW Caribb. affect 90 L. Would 90L follow its path or get kicked out to sea quicker?

It depends on a lot of things. At any rate our neck of the woods is safe unless a front comes down.

Well, it would depend if potential Noel got stuck in the Caribbean in weak currents until perhaps the pattern changed. Caribbean has deep enough warm water to sustain a slow moving storm for several days. History says that while Texas is generally safe towards the end of September, hurricanes have hit Florida (like Hurricane Kate) in November.

I live in the Tampabay area. Thats why I said we'd need a front. South florida is another question though.