Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 272332
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    90L

INITIAL TIME  18Z OCT 27

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            15.3             70.8           280./ 8.0
   6            15.8             70.9           341./ 4.8
  12            16.1             71.2           326./ 3.9
  18            17.1             71.4           347./ 9.8
  24            17.9             71.9           329./ 9.6
  30            19.8             72.4           346./19.1
  36            20.7             73.2           319./12.3
  42            21.3             74.7           290./15.0
  48            20.8             75.5           239./ 8.9
  54            21.2             75.4            19./ 4.2
  60            22.1             75.2             9./ 9.3
  66            23.0             75.5           344./ 9.3
  72            23.4             75.7           325./ 4.4
  78            23.7             75.6            25./ 3.5
  84            24.2             75.3            29./ 5.2
  90            25.1             74.8            28./10.7
  96            26.1             74.2            32./11.1
 102            27.3             73.5            29./14.0
 108            28.4             73.2            17./11.0
 114            29.4             72.5            34./11.3
 120            30.8             71.7            31./15.9
 126            32.1             70.3            47./17.4



18z GFDL goes thru Eastern Cuba,Bahamas and out to sea.

[tolakram]

I realize dmin gets used too often but I do think it's interesting to note that convection is on the increase during dmin (sunset). The intensity of the convection is striking. Derek once pointed out that organized tropical systems easily overcome the effects of diurnal min and max.

[Rainband]

I realize dmin gets used too often but I do think it's interesting to note that convection is on the increase during dmin (sunset). The intensity of the convection is striking.

yeah... kind of scary

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 23:15 UTC:

[Rainband]

Yep models are trending east. Good for the US if it keeps up. The convection is really exploding

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

LLC looks to be moving due west again with convection firing near the east side of the center.

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1003 MB...IS CENTERED ABOUT
100 NM S OF HAITI NEAR 16N71W. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED BUT REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE W OF A LARGE
CONVECTIVE MASS. BASED ON THIS ORGANIZATION...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS FEELING SOME EFFECTS OF WLY SHEAR TO THE S OF AN
UPPER LOW. CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS
EVENING...NOW NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG IN NATURE...TO
THE NE OF THE CENTER FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 68W-71W. A LARGE
RATHER MESSY AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 61W-74W...WHICH INCLUDES PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. METAR AND
BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT THIS LOW IS RATHER BROAD WITH MANY
STATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIB REPORTING AN SLP LOWER THAN
1008 MB. ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

$$
CANGIALOSI

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[cycloneye]

27/2345 UTC 15.7N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nrl has it as Noname 16. Thank god.

[Chacor]

TD 16L is here according to ATCF.

[cycloneye]

TD 16L is here according to ATCF.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Yes NONAME

[Chacor]

SIXTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 16, 2007, TD, O, 2007102512, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL162007
AL, 16, 2007102418, , BEST, 0, 183N, 615W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2007102500, , BEST, 0, 188N, 623W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2007102506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 629W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2007102512, , BEST, 0, 192N, 634W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 16, 2007102518, , BEST, 0, 191N, 641W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 16, 2007102600, , BEST, 0, 188N, 648W, 25, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 16, 2007102606, , BEST, 0, 179N, 657W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2007102612, , BEST, 0, 171N, 665W, 25, 1004, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 16, 2007102618, , BEST, 0, 164N, 680W, 25, 1004, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 16, 2007102700, , BEST, 0, 161N, 684W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 16, 2007102706, , BEST, 0, 156N, 694W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2007102712, , BEST, 0, 154N, 701W, 30, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 16, 2007102718, , BEST, 0, 153N, 710W, 30, 1004, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 100, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 16, 2007102800, , BEST, 0, 158N, 713W, 30, 1003, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Derek Ortt]

kind of had to call this a TD based upon the latest trends

[cycloneye]

I know that when that comes out,is a given it will be a TD,but we always wait for the official advisory to then change the titles of threads.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 280036
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162007) 20071028 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071028 0000 071028 1200 071029 0000 071029 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 71.3W 16.6N 72.6W 17.4N 73.6W 18.3N 74.9W
BAMD 15.8N 71.3W 16.5N 72.2W 17.4N 73.1W 18.3N 74.2W
BAMM 15.8N 71.3W 16.5N 72.6W 17.2N 73.6W 17.9N 74.7W
LBAR 15.8N 71.3W 16.8N 72.6W 18.0N 73.3W 19.6N 73.8W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071030 0000 071031 0000 071101 0000 071102 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 76.0W 20.8N 78.1W 22.0N 79.2W 23.0N 78.3W
BAMD 19.3N 75.4W 20.8N 77.6W 22.4N 78.6W 26.3N 75.1W
BAMM 18.9N 75.9W 20.2N 78.0W 21.1N 79.1W 23.2N 78.0W
LBAR 20.9N 74.3W 23.5N 74.5W 25.2N 73.8W 27.8N 71.9W
SHIP 59KTS 71KTS 78KTS 79KTS
DSHP 59KTS 71KTS 78KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 71.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 70.1W DIRM12 = 259DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 68.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The BAMS goe more westward than the global models.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *  SIXTEEN     AL162007  10/28/07  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    32    35    38    41    49    59    66    71    75    78    80    79
V (KT) LAND       30    32    35    38    41    49    59    66    71    75    78    80    79
V (KT) LGE mod    30    30    31    32    33    36    40    46    53    59    64    69    72

SHEAR (KTS)       18    19    20    16    15    12     6    18    14    14    11    15    15
SHEAR DIR        276   269   251   260   253   270   242   246   232   265   264   287   238
SST (C)         29.1  29.1  29.1  29.1  29.2  29.2  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.3
POT. INT. (KT)   152   153   153   153   155   155   159   157   154   154   154   154   153
ADJ. POT. INT.   144   145   145   145   146   147   149   141   135   133   132   132   132
200 MB T (C)   -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C)      10     9     9    10    10     9     9     8     9     8    10    10    11
700-500 MB RH     68    67    65    62    61    57    55    53    55    58    58    52    48
GFS VTEX (KT)     11    11    12    12    12  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   103   112   105   111   129   134   139   128   111   114   113   108    86
200 MB DIV        52    50    57    73    42    36    13     4   -13    13     0     6    -8
LAND (KM)        200   163   155    91    37    84    33   115    81    60    37    47    49
LAT (DEG N)     15.8  16.3  16.7  17.3  17.8  18.7  19.7  20.5  21.0  21.2  21.3  21.2  21.3
LONG(DEG W)     71.3  72.0  72.7  73.5  74.2  75.8  78.0  79.5  80.1  80.1  79.7  79.7  80.1
STM SPEED (KT)     7     8     9     9     9    10    10     6     2     1     1     1     2
HEAT CONTENT     106   109    98    98   105    82    92   100   103   104   101   101   104

[Brent]

I don't believe it... Thought we would never get another storm.

[cycloneye]

Brent wakes up.