Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[JtSmarts]

Wow, Never expected this to happen, this late.

[Vortex]

Lenny, Mitch, wilma, Michelle...All majors around this time or later..Not a big surprise at all..

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF



HWRF has a sub 950mb cane.

[Vortex]

May be a very close call for SE Florida and the Keys.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

Personally, I believe the LLC is situated near 16N and 71W. I don't understand the reasons as to why some people have been observing a WNW or NW motion. I have been tracking the LLC's movement, and it has been moving on a persistent path very slightly north of due west. I think the TPC's call is good per the usual standards. The LLC must relocate in order to move over Hispaniola. That area should be wary about heavy precipitation, even if the system causes an indirect impact.

[Cyclenall]

I'm surprised the Atlantic managed to muster out another TC.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 00:45 UTC

[Vortex]

Miamiwx,

I agree with you on all counts..In fact if you look at the IR2 the LLC has even moved a tad S of West.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[canegrl04]

18z HWRF



HWRF has a sub 950mb cane.

Interesting.They put Dean as a cat 5 while it was still a TD

[canegrl04]

What an ironic twist to the season it would be to get a cane from a system developing in the Carribean so late after all the fizzles during the height of the season

[Derek Ortt]

its moving at 290 and should pass very near southern Haiti tomorrow. Will likely move at about 315 during the day tomorrow

Catastrophic flooding likely for Haiti

[Evil Jeremy]

Derek, with the latest model runs out on this, do you still think that this posses a major threat to SFL?

[Derek Ortt]

I will release the first forecast once the first official advisory is issued. I have already written the forecast though

[Cyclenall]

Not an offical product (Just my opinion without science):

First % chance of TD16 (NONAME.16L) to become a:

Tropical Depression: 99.9%
Tropical Storm: 75%
Hurricane: 35%
Category 2 Hurricane: 20%
Category 3 Hurricane: 7%
Category 4 Hurricane: 3%
Category 5 Hurricane: 0.8%

[wzrgirl1]

if the models shift ever so slightly to the west....1 degree....that could make a big difference.....time to really keep a focus on this baby

[Rainband]

May be a very close call for SE Florida and the Keys.

Not if they keep trending east as they have

[Rainband]

Trend has been east

[wzrgirl1]

yes but a stall could be the difference....guess time will tell

[Derek Ortt]

the trend has not been east


It's been divergence and a stronger TC