Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Cyclone1]

Whoa... 16L? Where have I been? o_O

[cycloneye]

That means,weaker cyclone more west,stronger cyclone,out to sea after it crosses Cuba and Bahamas.

[Derek Ortt]

not in this case, Luis

The differences have been due to differences in the timing of the cold front

If this gets stuck in the NW Carib, we should have major #3 on the season

[cycloneye]

Ok,thanks for the clarification on that.

[Vortex]

Derek,

You also mentioned a few weeks back that in La Nina years it's very common to get a cat3+ late in the season across the carribean?

[Derek Ortt]

yeah... in fact, since 1996, every la nina has had at least a cat 2 in the caribbean (and that cat 2 became a 3 east of the Bahamas)

[Rainband]

the trend has not been east


It's been divergence and a stronger TC

The trend/direction of the models have moved east since the start.

[dixiebreeze]

might want to change the name of the thread to 16L

[cycloneye]

might want to change the name of the thread to 16L

I will do it as soon the first advisory is released.

[Vortex]

dixie,

Haven't seen you around in a long time..miss those pressure readings

[cycloneye]

The latest at 01:45 UTC:

[Derek Ortt]

they havnt.

NOGAPS and UKMET are just as far west as they were earlier

[wzrgirl1]

no gaps makes me nervous

[Ed Mahmoud]

they havnt.

NOGAPS and UKMET are just as far west as they were earlier

Your 'favorite model' just misses Miami, but would bring TS conditions to the Southern part of EC Florida.

[wxman57]

Great, now I get to wake up at 3am to put out the next advisory. Good bluff by the NHC at 5pm indicating they wouldn't upgrade tonight.

[HURAKAN]

[NcentralFlaguy]

Im not sure the "trends" are important at the moment . This system continues to move just north of west, I am sure that will have an affect on the models tomorrow. Nearly all the models have the system moving a little farther north at this time, and that simply is not materializing as of yet.

[Nimbus]

Hey this wasn't supposed to spin up till Sunday.

[tolakram]

I must not be able to read shear maps. Is the mid level shear more important than the high level shear? Do the current maps make any sense?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Blown Away]

Will SFL be in the 5 day cone at 11pm?? I think the initial track will be further W than we think, IMO.