Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Vortex]

00Z Nam is rolling in

NAM has done very well to this point

Loop in progress

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[HURAKAN]

657
WTNT21 KNHC 280230
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 71.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.6N 72.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 74.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.8N 76.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.6N 77.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 25.0N 78.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 71.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

658
WTNT31 KNHC 280230
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

...PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR ABOUT
195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...
11 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[brunota2003]

Mmm...looking at Infrared, I personally wouldnt be surprised if there were TS force winds in it already. Big batch of grey inside of those deep reds. But, that doesnt mean there is TS force winds, just my opinion.

[HURAKAN]

[fci]

First time in 2007 season that South Florida has been in the cone???

[SouthFLTropics]

Boy oh Boy, the news media is going to have a field day with this at 11:00PM. I guarantee that more than one station will lead with this story along with some interesting graphics and music to go with it...

SFT

[Vortex]

If that forecast verifies SFL would get some very squally weather at the very least...

[Brent]

Media goes nuts. Story at 11.

[wzrgirl1]

derek has this about 90 miles east of florida....too close for comfort

[fci]

If that forecast verifies SFL would get some very squally weather at the very least...

Not so sure about that.
We would be on the NW side of a system being pushed to the NE.
Probably some gusty winds and an occasional burst of rain.
Seen it before....

More than one time.

[Vortex]

Cleo in 64'


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Cleo_1964_track.png

[Rainband]

Cleo in 64'


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Cleo_1964_track.png

forecast to be a TS Not similar.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM nearly identical to NHC but enough ridging to move a little more west..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[JTD]

Hard to believe but this is the first cyclone all season long that has the potential to be a major issue for the CONUS.

All of the other systems were sheared messes or had clear model support steering them away from CONUS.

[cycloneye]

00z NAM loop



Above is the whole loop of the 00z run.

[Vortex]

Something tells me this will go down as the Halloween storm for future reference....

[RL3AO]

So South Florida people, what was the top story on your news?

[SouthFLTropics]

I cannot believe it...I was wrong and the news media did not lead with the new TD. The plane crash in Boynton has kept them busy tonight.

[cycloneye]