Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 280306
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB...WHILE QUIKSCAT
DATA SHOWED NO RELIABLE WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT. BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/6. THE LARGE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER HAITI AND SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY
96-120 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH A
RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. THE UKMET KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA
BY 120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS FORECASTS IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY THAT TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 72-96 HR...THEN EITHER RECURVE OR
RE-FORM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE GFDL AND THE
HWRF CALL FOR A TRACK ACROSS HAITI AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS SHOWING THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS BY 96-120 HR DUE TO SHEAR. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THIS SPREAD...WITH A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH 72 HR FOLLOWED BY A SLOW RECURVATURE INTO THE
WESTERLIES. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE FIRST 36 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS BUILD A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT COULD
PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...IF THE
CYCLONE IS UNDER IT RATHER THAN NORTH OF IT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE OVER THE ATLANTIC
DESPITE STRONG SHEAR. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR...BELOW
THAT OF THE SHIPS...GFDL..AND HWRF. AFTER 72 HR...LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 15.9N 71.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 16.6N 72.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 17.7N 74.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 18.8N 76.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 19.6N 77.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 21.0N 80.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 02/0000Z 25.0N 78.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[fci]

So South Florida people, what was the top story on your news?

Here in Palm Beach County it was a private plane crash in Boynton Beach.
Followed by quick look at weather including the TD on CBS.
NBC had at least another 3 stories when I switched over to Football.

Tomorrow the hype begins, BIG TIME.

[RL3AO]

Why no TS watch for Jamaica?

[Vortex]

Very little in Fort Lauderdale/Miami...Odd as the usual CV wave get's their attention.

[Vortex]

I'm almost sure Jamaica will go under a Warning at 5AM.

[wzrgirl1]

Very little in Fort Lauderdale/Miami...Odd as the usual CV wave get's their attention.

oh you just wait

[cycloneye]

BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

From the Advisory discussion.

[fci]

Very little in Fort Lauderdale/Miami...Odd as the usual CV wave get's their attention.

Probably because it is the weekend crew.
Definitely expected more hype.

[Derek Ortt]

CBS 4 lead with the TD

[boca]

If this storm has a track over the Bahamas whhy the hype here in S FL?

[RL3AO]

If this storm has a track over the Bahamas whhy the hype here in S FL?

S FL is in the cone

Plus: "BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME."

[Vortex]

Derek, it's the NAM but thus far it has been pretty much on the money. If the 00z played out would you expect RI near the end of the run?

[cycloneye]

If this storm has a track over the Bahamas whhy the hype here in S FL?

It may be because of what they said at the discussion.

BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

[CourierPR]

If this storm has a track over the Bahamas whhy the hype here in S FL?

As NHC stated, the track and intensity forecast is very uncertain.

[Vortex]

Radar out of Aruba indicates increase in convection to the south of the center..


http://www.weather.an/product_images/high/cappi.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm really sorry I really hope this isn't taken as insensitive but....

YES!!!! Finally something to stormchase. I'm so happy
this became a depression!!!!

[CrazyC83]

This is a double-edged sword from my view. There are two likely scenarios - and neither is good.

A track closer to the islands keeps this storm much weaker (no more than a TS most likely, perhaps quick dissipation), but sets the stage for potentially catastrophic flooding, especially in Haiti, due to its slow movement.

A southerly course keeps the impact away from them, but creates the potential for rapid intensification into a dangerous hurricane.

[fci]

If this storm has a track over the Bahamas whhy the hype here in S FL?

Way too close for comfort.
A turn that takes place at 80 followed by turn to NE.
If this goes further west it intensifies more and turns later.
It is in the classic place to come here if the turn comes later than what they show now.

Plus the discussion stresses the uncertainty of the course and intensity.

Deserves hype.
And you know that I am one of the last to hype and rail against those that do.
Lets see it make the turn before we relax.

[Rainband]

I take back my earlier complacency after talking to derek. I am watching this closely

[Rainband]

YES!!!! Finally something to stormchase. I'm so happy
this became a depression!!!!

You may EAT those words.