Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Derek Ortt]

the SSD position seems to be the correct position, but their T numbers look to have been assigned by IMD

[CourierPR]

Yes, and the local TV news seems to be downplaying any potential threat. It reminds me of the time prior to the arrival of Wilma.

[wzrgirl1]

ok got it....thanks

[Cyclone1]

I found 1.5 to be a bit strange also Derek...

[cycloneye]

To summarize the position question,the 15.8n-71.0w from SSD is more south and east of the 8 AM NHC advisory.It means is under the convection.

[Cyclone1]

Ship says cane.

[Weatherboy1]

yes, it appears to me that the center of 16 may have re-formed under the deep convection, with the original vortex getting spit out to the west and falling apart. If so, this thing could get to TS status a lot quicker.

[Derek Ortt]

just checked with San Juan radar, some isolated 2 inch an hour totals in the mountains of PR

[cycloneye]

just checked with San Juan radar, some isolated 2 inch an hour totals in the mountains of PR

That is on top of the around 7 inches that fell yesterday in southern PR.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/sanjuanprecip.gif

San Juan radar 1 hour precip totals

[wzrgirl1]

Derek,

Do you think f fl will get any watches out of this?

[Derek Ortt]

and model NCEP is as unreliable as the SSD T number. Has this accelerating south fo due west and dissipating shortly

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure... probably not at this rate since this looks to steamroll Haiti and the Bahamas. Any US watches would likely be for New England the way things are looking now

[tolakram]

[HURAKAN]

[Vortex]

WV indicates the ridge N or DR strengthening and building west. The end result TC now beginning to move westward at a slightly faster clip. Also, the UL to the NW is filling as shear indicies dropoff. Looks like it will go between Haiti and Jamaica.

[Cyclone1]

Hurakan, that's really cool!

[Vortex]

Gusting out of the S at 40mph.


Conditions at 42059 as of
1250 GMT on 10/28/2007: Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.05 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.6 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 91.2 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[HURAKAN]

685
WHXX01 KWBC 281334
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1334 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162007) 20071028 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071028 1200 071029 0000 071029 1200 071030 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 72.3W 17.1N 73.8W 17.8N 75.4W 18.5N 76.8W
BAMD 16.3N 72.3W 17.2N 72.9W 18.4N 73.9W 19.6N 74.9W
BAMM 16.3N 72.3W 17.1N 73.4W 17.9N 74.7W 18.8N 76.0W
LBAR 16.3N 72.3W 17.3N 73.3W 18.6N 74.3W 20.3N 74.9W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071030 1200 071031 1200 071101 1200 071102 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 78.0W 19.5N 79.9W 19.9N 81.0W 20.2N 81.9W
BAMD 20.6N 75.8W 22.0N 77.1W 25.0N 75.4W 29.5N 68.9W
BAMM 19.5N 77.1W 20.3N 79.0W 21.3N 79.8W 22.6N 80.3W
LBAR 21.8N 75.5W 24.2N 75.7W 26.4N 74.7W 30.7N 70.1W
SHIP 55KTS 66KTS 67KTS 59KTS
DSHP 55KTS 66KTS 50KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 72.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 71.3W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 70.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

SHIP S 1200 17.70 -69.60 169 58 90 33.0 - 1.6 2.0 - - 29.73