Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Vortex]

Hi-res imagery suggest TC to be near 16.9/71.5 moving just N of due west at about 12mph. Also, would not be surprised if recon finds a 50+ storm.

[Cyclone1]

Looks like no upgrade at 11 then. 30kt at 00hrs.

Understandable.

[Sanibel]

That black IR reminds me of Wilma. Looks like a recurve set up east of Florida or crash over the islands.

[Cyclone1]

16.9? That's directly under very deep convection. If that's true, it's almost certainly a tropical storm.

[Vortex]

WV imagery indicates pronounced ridging developing N of DR and building west. This should bridge with ridge building in along the EC. This would steer TC west for the next 2+days..Appears threat to Jamaica has increased. May still go just N.

[boca]

I agree with Saibel not a Florida storm it will recurve due to the trough.This storm will make Florida drier.This would be a nice drought buster for Florida,but it won't happen.

[Sanibel]

TWC Lyons says front comes down from CONUS and steers it east away from Florida after approaching Florida from SE.

[Blown Away]

The Ukmet & GFDL have 16L crossing over W Haiti. 16L would have to make a sharp turn now in order to cross Haiti, I don't see that happening, 16L looks to be moving W to WNW rate now. I'm thinking a little W shift of the NHC track at 11am.

[boca]

16L would follow the black area on the water vapor loop which is right over the Bahamas.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Vortex]

12Z NAM rolling in...Appears to have initialized the storm fairly well and is right on with the synoptic set-up.

[Derek Ortt]

the motion may be closer to 320... but it is most certainly not moving slightly north of due west

[Vortex]

derek,

I disagree but recon will confirm.

[boca]

Isn't 320 NNW direction which would take this right over Haiti.

[Blown Away]

Isn't 320 NNW direction which would take this right over Haiti.

Closer to NW

[wxman57]

One thing that comes to mind is that sheared storms like this almost always end up tracking right of the initial forecast. I had estimated the center near 16N/72W, southwest of the convection a bit. But it's really hard to tell. I don't see it west of the convection as the NHC indicated on the intermediate advisory. It could well be up at 17N/71.5W right beneath the convection. If so, then it's a TS already.

[chadtm80]

[cycloneye]

The latest at 13:45 UTC:



Definitly looks like a storm but they will wait for recon to confirm..

[wxman57]

The latest at 13:45 UTC:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/tropical/180.JPG

Definitly looks like a storm but they will wait for recon to confirm..

The more I look at it, the more it looks like the center is right under the convection, making it a TS. But if that's the case, then it's going to track across Haiti and eastern Cuba, well east of the forecast track.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm starting to see the same thing... the storm could track even east of my track, which is over eastern Cuba and just south of Haiti

[HURAKAN]

Close-up:

Doesn't look exposed to me.